We have a short, seven-game slate to work with tonight and it’s shaping up to be a tricky one in terms of identifying viable pitchers. Let’s take a look at some top plays for DraftKings.
Weather Situations to Monitor:
- Dodgers @ Pirates
- Athletics @ Orioles
For reference throughout the season, be sure to bookmark our overview of MLB Park Factors and how to Use Weather to Your Advantage in MLB DFS. Also, check out our GPP and Cash Games Primers to learn more about different daily fantasy game types specific to MLB.
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Pitchers
Alex Wood (LAD): $12,100 @ PIT
Listing Wood here is just as much of a word of caution, especially at this price, as it is a full endorsement. While the matchup is a decent one, I’m beginning to worry about fatigue with the young lefty. His velocity has been trending in the wrong direction on a month-by-month basis, and it’s starting to affect fantasy output. Wood’s strikeouts are down, which is a big hit to his overall stock, and now one is left to wonder whether there’s something wrong. I don’t mind taking a chance on him, but there’s certainly reason to consider other options as well.
Chris Stratton (SF): $6,800 vs. MIL
Stratton is coming off of a masterful outing in which he struck out 10 hitters, but context is important, as he didn’t have to face Bryce Harper or Daniel Murphy. Still, performing in the manner that he did at the major league level still warrants some consideration. Stratton doesn’t possess an overpowering fastball, but it’s his curveball that he utilizes to generate whiffs (18.7% SwStr). It’s obviously tough to draw any concrete conclusions as to whether or not this is sustainable over the long haul, but he does draw another start tonight in which the strikeout upside is big. The Brewers have been striking out at a high clip against lefties all season long, and with Stratton getting the benefit of pitching at home, he could be in line for another solid outing.
Tyler Skaggs (LAA): $6,700 vs. TEX
The problem with eschewing Wood tonight is that you essentially have to jump into a dumpster fire in an effort to find a viable alternative. Skaggs possesses a decent strikeout rate (8.66 K/9), but he will be tasked with trying to contain a scorching hot Texas offense tonight. The good thing is that he will face them at home, but you need to be cautious when targeting a hot team. The Rangers rank 24th on the season against lefties, but they rank 12th and fourth over the past month and two weeks, respectively. Curiously, the Rangers do sport a low team total, so maybe Vegas is on to something with Skaggs. With tonight shaping up as a slate to attack in tournaments, I don’t mind taking a flier on Skaggs.
Hitters
Orioles Stack vs. Chris Smith
Manny Machado (3B): $5,600
Tim Beckham (SS): $4,800
Adam Jones (OF): $4,500
Chris Davis (1B): $4,500
The Orioles possess an implied team total that is pushing towards six runs tonight, and they will look to remain relevant in the playoff conversation after a tough weekend series against the Angels. Chris Smith is simply not a good pitcher, so don’t be shy about picking on him tonight. Tom Beckham and Manny Machado are each hitting for a high average over the past two weeks, with Machado also clubbing six home runs over that span. Even Chris Davis is hitting right now, and we know the power upside he possesses, especially at home.
Diamondbacks Stack @ Mets vs. Robert Gsellman
Paul Goldschmidt (1B): $5,600
J.D. Martinez (OF): $5,200
Jake Lamb (3B): $4,800
David Peralta (OF): $4,700
Robert Gsellman has struggled against hitters on both sides of the plate this season, so I don’t mind picking on him a bit with a couple of hitters from each side of the plate. Goldschmidt isn’t exactly tearing the cover off the ball right now, but he’s an elite hitter who can get going at any time. Martinez is hitting just .238 over the last two weeks, but he does have three home runs over that span, which is the power you expect from him. Overall, this is a decent spot to target a few of the Diamondbacks’ hitters in a plus matchup.
Mike Trout (OF): $5,400 vs. The World
Trout continues to produce at an elite level, and he is coming off of a fantastic series over the weekend in Baltimore in which he hit three home runs. He will return home to face lefty Cole Hamels, who he has just one hit against in 11 career at-bats. With that being said, Trout might be completely matchup proof and he deserves consideration tonight. Trout sports a career .403 wOBA against left-handed pitching to go along with a .236 ISO and 163 wRC+. Target the best player in all of baseball across all formats tonight.
Hot Hitter
Robinson Chirinos (C): $3,500 @ LAA
I’m anticipating the Mariners making the tough decision to hold Nelson Cruz out in a National League park, and if that’s the case, you’ll have to scratch the hottest hitter in baseball over the last two weeks off your list. That shifts us to Chirinos, who is rolling right now. He has just 28 at-bats over his last 10 games, but he’s collected 11 hits over that span while hitting two home runs. He will hold the platoon advantage over Tyler Skaggs, who has been susceptible to right-handed hitters this season (.341 wOBA). Chirinos is a fine tournament filler, or as part of a Rangers’ stack if you want to pick on Skaggs and ride the hot hitters.
Batter vs. Pitcher
Albert Pujols (1B): $3,500 vs. Cole Hamels
Pujols isn’t a very attractive fantasy option, but he does have 18 home runs on the season and he’s coming off of a decent road trip in which he collected nine hits in 33 at-bats (.272 AVG). While he hasn’t hit for a high average against Hamels in his career (.205 AVG), he does have three home runs in 39 at-bats. Hamels has allowed 10 home runs in 76.2 IP to right-handed hitters, while his hard minus soft contact rate currently sits at a high 24.3%. Pujols is nothing more than a GPP flier, but one that surely will have extremely low ownership.
Adam Sutton is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Adam, follow him @DraftStars_Adam. You can find more of Adam’s work at DraftStars.net.
