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DraftKings MLB Lineup Advice: Tuesday (8/22)

DraftKings MLB Lineup Advice: Tuesday (8/22)

The priciest pitcher on the slate, Chris Archer, fits the bill as the top pitching option. Having said that, the other three highlighted options below carry a price tag south of $9,000. Two of the four options are priced under $8,000. The variety of price points available for solid pitching options opens the door to some exposure to big bats in games with big totals — there are five games with over/under totals of 10 runs or more, per Pinnacle.

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Pitchers

Chris Archer (TBR) : $12,400 vs. Blue Jays

Archer’s the top option at pitcher, but that’s for good reason. He’s an excellent pitcher, and he’s downright filthy at home. Since 2015, he’s pitched 290 innings to the tune of a 2.98 ERA (2.63 FIP and 2.90 xFIP), 1.11 WHIP, 7.1% BB%, and a 31.8% K%, according to FanGraphs. The gaudy strikeout rate and a 13.4% SwStr% for the year as well as a 14.0% SwStr% over the last 30 days helps fuel Archer’s case as the top arm tonight. He and the Rays are -194 favorites, and the game’s over/under total is a non-threatening 8.5 runs. Speaking of non-threatening, the Blue Jays rank just 23rd in wRC+ (90) and 25th in wOBA (.310) against right-handed pitchers this season. Archer’s the SP1 who should anchor cash games teams, but his upside makes it worth eating the chalk in GPPs, too.

Charlie Morton (HOU): $8,900 vs. Nationals

The Nationals aren’t nearly as scary an offense without Trea Turner and — more recently and importantly — Bryce Harper. The host Astros are -175 favorites, and the game’s over/under total of nine runs isn’t scary, either. Morton allowed four earned runs in back-to-back starts on July 14 and July 19, but he’s been locked in over his last five turns. He’s allowed three earned runs or fewer in his last five starts (four quality starts) spanning 32.0 innings. In that five-start stretch, Morton’s racked up a 2.53 ERA (2.61 FIP, 3.49 xFIP, and 3.77 SIERA), 1.06 WHIP, 9.0% BB%, 27.1% K%, and a 11.4% SwStr%. I love Morton tonight, and I think he’s a strong SP1 pivot off of Archer in GPPs at a $3,500 discount.

Danny Duffy (KCR) : $7,600 vs. Rockies

I fully expect Duffy to be the SP2 of choice for many gamers. The lefty’s 4.15 ERA over the last 30 days isn’t anything special, but he’s been the victim of a high BABIP (.333) and strand rate issues (62.9% LOB%). His underlying statistics are much more important and result in a 3.20 FIP, 4.09 xFIP, and a 3.71 SIERA. In that time frame, he’s made five starts spanning 30.1 innings with a 4.6% BB%, 26.0% K%, and a 11.9% SwStr%. The southpaw and host Royals are small favorites at -116, and the game’s over/under total is nine runs. The visiting Rockies have been terrible this season on the road and rank 29th in wRC+ (79) and 28th in wOBA (.299) while striking out in an exploitable 24.3% of their plate appearances. They’re also no great shakes against lefties ranking tied for 14th in wRC+ (96) while striking out in 23.6% of their plate appearances against them.

Lucas Giolito (CHW): $6,100 vs. Twins

Giolito is a high-risk, high-reward SP2 option in GPPs. The 23-year-old righty once possessed one of the most electric arsenals among all prospect hurlers, but his stuff isn’t quite as overpowering as it used to be — that’s not to say it’s bad, though. He’s recorded an excellent 12.1% SwStr% at the Triple-A level this year, per FanGraphs, but erratic control has resulted in a 10.7% BB%, and his 4.48 ERA (4.44 FIP and 3.85 xFIP) and 1.41 WHIP don’t jump off the page as daily-baseball relevant. Furthermore, gamers will likely shy away from him due to a game over/under total of 10.5 runs with the visiting Twins favored at -124. Giolito earned his promotion on the heels of an outstanding five-game stretch spanning 31.2 innings in which he tallied a 1.17 ERA (3.43 FIP), 1.14 WHIP, 8.7% BB%, and 22.1% K%. The Twins offense is without big thumper Miguel Sano since he’s on the disabled list. The lack of Sano makes them a less scary offense than the one that ranks tied for 10th in wRC+ (100) against righties this year. Giolito isn’t a safe option by any stretch, but the upside and likely low ownership he’ll carry pair well in GPPs.

Hitters

Joey Votto (CIN) : $5,000 vs. Cubs

First base is overflowing with exceptional options tonight, and my initial leaning wasn’t in Votto’s direction. Actually, I was leaning across the field toward his counterpart at first base in this contest, Anthony Rizzo. I suspect Rizzo will be the chalkier option at first base, but Votto terrorizes righties. Among qualified hitters since 2015, he ranks tied with Harper for second in wRC+ (169), first in OBP (.453) by 18 points (!), and has a .252 ISO against righties. At home against righties since 2015, he has a .463 OBP, .268 ISO, and a 171 wRC+. John Lackey‘s had no answer for lefties this year ceding a .360 OBP, .550 SLG, and .380 wOBA to them.

Scooter Gennett (CIN) : $3,900 vs. Cubs

While Lackey’s struggles with lefties are fresh in your mind, Gennett makes for another great choice from this contest. He’s in the midst of a career year and has tattooed righties for a .360 OBP, .266 ISO, and a 138 wRC+. I prefer to use Gennett at the keystone position, but he’s also a fine option in the outfield.

Rafael Devers (BOS) : $4,200 @ Indians

Devers has taken The Show by storm, but he’ll likely go under owned against Carlos Carrasco tonight. Carrasco’s one of the better pitchers on the slate, but he struggles with left-handed batters allowing a .319 OBP, .479 SLG, and .337 wOBA to them this season. Devers has smacked six homers with a .406 OBP, .375 ISO, and 179 wRC+ in his first 64 plate appearances against righties in the Majors. Prior to reaching the Bigs this year, he’d recorded a .993 OPS and 16 homers in 216 at-bats at the Double-A level and one homer with a 1.075 OPS in 27 at-bats against righties at the Triple-A level, according to MiLB.com.

Marwin Gonzalez (HOU) : $4,400 vs. Nationals

Gonzalez joins Gennett as one of the more surprising breakout stories this year. The switch-hitting, everyday utility guy has knocked around righties for a .403 OBP, .261 ISO, and a 166 wRC+. He’s given the home crowd plenty to cheer about this year facing righties at home with a .369 OBP, .308 ISO, and a 159 wRC+. Tanner Roark makes for a good target to go after with lefty bats, too, having surrendered a .363 OBP, .466 SLG, and .353 wOBA to the 300 lefties he’s faced so far this year.

Matt Olson (OAK) : $3,700 @ Orioles

The game in Baltimore is one of three with an over/under total of 10.5 runs, and while the O’s are -157 favorites, that leaves plenty of run scoring projected for the visiting A’s. Olson’s one of my favorite pieces of exposure to that game. He’s cheap, and he bats left-handed. Ubaldo Jimenez has coughed up a .363 OBP, .608 SLG, and .401 wOBA to left-handed batters this season. Olson’s slugged seven homers with a .342 OBP, .319 ISO, and 142 wRC+ in 79 plate appearances against righties in The Show this year after ripping 19 homers with a .995 OPS in 232 at-bats against righties at the Triple-A level this season.

Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.

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