Today’s suggestions are geared toward GPPs. With that in mind, I won’t be telling you below about how great Chris Sale is and about how he’s probably who you should start your cash games rosters with. And, yes, his upside is high enough to be deserving of usage in GPPs even at his pricey salary ($13,200). The pitching picks below allow for comfortably squeezing in my favorite high-priced, high-octane stack with another big bat and a non-trash SP2. Speaking of non-trash SP2’s, my suggestion with using the suggestions below is to mix and match the pitchers suggested around the featured stack while cutting out the bonus big bat at first base — if need be — to squeeze the pitching combos together.
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Pitchers
Rich Hill (LAD) : $10,900 @ Diamondbacks
By now, I’m sure you’re aware of the insanely bad luck Hill had in his last start. Usually bad luck is synonymous with giving up runs, but in this case, the man spun a no-no through nine innings and ultimately lost on a walk-off homer in extra innings. Anyway, the start was a gem. The lefty’s had a number of gems this year, and after a brief stretch of missing time and inconsistent control in late May and early June, he’s gotten locked in. Since June 21, the veteran southpaw has pitched 11 starts in which he’s spun a 2.38 ERA (.317 FIP, 3.22 xFIP, and 3.05 SIERA), 0.91 WHIP, 6.4% BB%, 32.6% K%, and 12.4% SwStr%, according to FanGraphs. Those numbers are Sale-like, and they come at a huge discount from the slate’s highest priced arm. The matchup sets the ceiling extremely high for Hill, too. Arizona ranks 29th in wRC+ (77) against lefties, and their 25.1% K% against them is the fourth highest. Hill and the Dodgers are -120 favorites in Arizona, per Pinnacle.
Ervin Santana (MIN) : $10,200 vs. White Sox
The other five-figure arm I’m leaning toward in GPPs is Santana. He, too, has a cushy matchup. The White Sox rank 27th in wRC+ (87) against right-handed pitchers this year while punching out at an exploitable 22.7% clip against them. Santana’s having a strong season, but he’s kicked things up a gear — namely in the strikeout department — of late. Over the last 30 days, he owns a 2.73 ERA (3.58 FIP, 4.24 xFIP, and 3.80 SIERA), 1.06 WHIP, 5.8% BB%, 25.4% K%, and 14.0% SwStr%. Over that five-start stretch, Santana’s piled up the innings averaging over six per start with 33.0 innings total. He and the Twins are monstrous -210 favorites at home.
Dylan Bundy (BAL): $8,800 vs. Mariners
On a per-dollar basis, Bundy’s my favorite GPP pitching option on the slate Continuing the theme of touting hot pitchers, Bundy’s been on a tear since the All-Star Break. Since the mid-summer classic, he’s made six starts totaling 38.1 innings in which he’s recorded a 3.76 ERA (3.73 FIP, 4.13 xFIP, and 3.68 SIERA), 1.10 WHIP, 5.2% BB%, 26.5% K%, and 14.3% SwStr%. His ability to miss bats has been elite down the stretch, and he’s struck out 28 batters in his last three starts totaling 19.0 innings. The Mariners make for a much better team to face away from Safeco Field than in their home digs. On the road, the M’s rank just tied for 16th in wRC+ (92). The host Orioles and their blossoming young arm are -135 favorites tonight.
Zack Godley (ARI) : $7,700 vs. Dodgers
Godley’s the second pitcher from the contest in the desert to get the nod, which is odd considering the hitter-friendly conditions. However, not noted in Hill’s write-up above is that the game’s over/under total is only nine runs. The Dodgers are small favorites, but that’s not a terrifying total to run away from. Godley’s salary is too low for his skill-set demonstrated this year. Of late, his control has wavered a bit with a 10.6% BB% over the last 30 days, but he’s worked around the free passes with a 26.8% K% — supported by his 13.4% SwStr% — and 50.0% GB%. The breakout pitcher’s ability to coax worm burners is especially helpful in his homer-friendly home park, where he’s spun a 3.22 ERA (3.55 FIP and 3.62 xFIP) in 50.1 innings this year. The Dodgers are winning at an incredible clip, but their offense hasn’t been clicking on all cylinders of late — likely in part due to rookie thumper Cody Bellinger hitting the disabled list — and they rank just 23rd in wRC+ (92) over the last two weeks. I wouldn’t call the Dodgers an easy assignment, but embracing some volatility to use a talented pitcher at a discount while they’re scuffling a bit is a good move in GPPs.
Hitters
Paul Goldschmidt (ARI) : $4,700 vs. Dodgers
On a non-Hill roster, Goldy stands out as an elite option whose ownership should be depressed due to the popularity of rostering Hill. Goldschmidt’s one of the game’s elite lefty-killers, and since 2015, he ranks first in OBP (.467), tied for 15th in ISO (.244), and third in wRC+ (172) against lefties among qualified hitters. And if you’re impressed by those numbers, he’s nearly unstoppable at Chase Field against lefties since 2015 with a .524 OBP, .292 ISO, and 201 wRC+.
Josh Donaldson (TOR): $3,600 vs. Red Sox
Sticking on the topic of lefty-killers, Donaldson’s salary is greatly reduced due to facing Sale tonight. Sale’s going to be a chalky option at pitcher as he always is, but I suspect Donaldson will reach double-digit ownership in GPPs due to his excellence against lefties and tiny salary. Among qualified hitters since 2015, Donaldson ranks 11th in OBP (.400), third in ISO (.293), and sixth in wRC+ (159) against lefties. He’s been even more special at home against lefties in that time frame with a .414 OBP, .291 ISO, and 164 wRC+.
Jose Altuve (HOU) : $5,100 vs. Rangers (at Tropicana Field in Tampa Bay)
Altuve kicks off an Astros stack that’s playing a “home game” in name only. Due to Hurricane Harvey causing havoc on the city of Houston, the series has been moved to Tropicana Field (if you care to donate to those impacted by Hurricane Harvey, here’s a link to Red Cross’s support efforts). At the time of writing, and over/under total hasn’t been posted for the game likely because of the change of venue, but I’d be shocked if it’s less than 10 runs. Houston’s top three hitters in their lineup are death on lefties. The man who rounds out the top three from the three-hole is Altuve. Since 2015, he ranks tied for seventh in OBP (.408) and tied for eighth in wRC+ (155) against southpaws while sporting a solid .190 ISO against them. He’s been a road warrior, too, and since the game isn’t in Houston, his road splits against lefties — and those for the hitters below — make sense to use. Since 2015, Altuve has a .407 OBP, .166 ISO, and 145 wRC+ against southpaws on the road. With a .367 OBP, .492 SLG, and .364 wOBA coughed up to righties this year, Martin Perez looks ill-equipped to quiet Houston’s lefty-killers at the top of their order.
Alex Bregman (HOU) : $4,700 vs. Rangers (at Tropicana Field in Tampa Bay)
Bregman debuted last summer, but he’s already established himself as a thorn in the side of southpaws with a .379 OBP, .217 ISO, and 141 wRC+ against them. Houston’s two-hole hitter against lefties has a .437 OBP, .224 ISO, and 162 wRC+ in an admittedly small sample of 103 plate appearances on the road against lefties.
George Springer (HOU) : $4,800 vs. Rangers (at Tropicana Field in Tampa Bay)
I’ve saved the best of the stack for last. After reading Altuve’s and Bregman’s numbers against southpaws, that might be hard to believe. However, it’s accurate. Houston’s leadoff bopper ranks tied for 13th in OBP (.396), sixth in ISO (.268), and fifth in wRC+ (161) against lefties since 2015 among qualified hitters. Like his previously mentioned teammates have done, he’s creamed southpaws on the road. Since 2015, he owns a .421 OBP, .317 ISO, and 190 wRC+ against lefties on the road.
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
