DraftKings MLB Lineup Advice: Wednesday (8/9)

Aug 9, 2017

Joey Votto is gearing up for a huge game tonight

There are 10 games on the main slate for Wednesday, and it doesn’t look like weather will play a big role this evening, outside of the game in Atlanta. Let’s take a look at some top plays for DraftKings.

Weather Situations to Monitor:

  • Phillies @ Braves

For reference throughout the season, be sure to bookmark our overview of MLB Park Factors and how to Use Weather to Your Advantage in MLB DFS. Also, check out our GPP and Cash Games Primers to learn more about different daily fantasy game types specific to MLB.

Create Optimal DraftKings lineups using our DFS Lineup Optimizer tool >>

Pitchers

Gio Gonzalez (WAS) : $11,500 vs. MIA
Gonzalez will face the same team he nearly messed around and no hit last week, with the game taking place in Washington this time. The Marlins have struggled against left-handed hitters as of late, as they rank 27th over the past 30 days as well as the last two weeks. You have to worry about the massive power of Giancarlo Stanton, but other than him, I think Gonzalez should be able to navigate this lineup. Gonzalez has pitched very well in three out of four starts since the All-Star break, and he’s in a great position to continue that trend at home tonight.

Masahiro Tanaka (NYY) : $9,400 @ TOR
Tanaka continues to whittle away at his bloated ERA, and after his last outing, he finally has it back under five for the season. He has pitched very well over his last four starts coming out of the All-Star break, having notched at least six strikeouts in each start, while walking just one batter total over that span. There’s a bit of concern with the Blue Jays hitting right-handed pitching well over the past two weeks, especially with this game being played in Toronto. For that reason, I’d reserve Tanaka as a high upside tournament play only.

Sean Newcomb (ATL): $7,200 vs. PHI
Let’s get nuts! I had Trevor Williams in this spot for Monday’s lineup advice article and he spun a gem against the Tigers, so why not keep this last pitcher spot as a risky one-off play going forward, right? After Chad Kuhl continued the trend against a scuffling Detroit offense last night, the temptation is there to triple down with Ivan Nova, but I’m going another direction tonight. Enter rookie Sean Newcomb, who has struggled mightily with walks (5.47 BB/9) through his first 10 starts. However, the strikeout upside is there as evidenced by his 9.4 K/9, so I’m willing to roll the dice on him in tournaments tonight. He draws a favorable matchup at home against the Phillies, who have struck out a whopping 28.3% against lefties over the past two weeks, while whiffing at an above average rate (23.6%) over the past month. There’s certainly plenty of risk involved due to Newcomb’s control issues, but if he can limit the free passes, I like his chances at a big outing at home this evening (monitor the weather).

Red Sox Stack vs. Jake Odorizzi

Andrew Benintendi (OF): $4,700
Mookie Betts (OF): $4,500
Eduardo Nunez (3B/OF): $4,400
Dustin Pedroia (2B): $3,600

The Red Sox have awakened from a seemingly season-long slumber, and they are in a position to keep their offense humming tonight against Jake Odorizzi. Out of the group listed above, only Betts has failed to join the party, as he has hit just .200 over the last 10 games. He does have a home run, but the 11 strikeouts in 45 at-bats over that span are a concern. Still, as part of a stack, I think he’s in play, especially with Odorizzi’s ugly numbers against same-handed hitters. Odorizzi has been more of a reverse splits pitcher in the past, but he has surrendered nine home runs to lefties in just 38.1 IP this season, so the upside is there for Benintendi. However, the statistic that jumps off the page is his hard minus soft contact rate allowed to right-handed hitters this season, which sits at a whopping 30.7%. This suggests same-handed batters are squaring him up well, and that is likely a recipe for disaster against a white-hot offense.

Astros Stack @ White Sox vs. Miguel Gonzalez

Jose Altuve (2B): $5,600
Josh Reddick (OF): $5,100
George Springer (OF): $5,000 (if he plays)
Marwin Gonzalez (OF/SS): $4,900
Yuli Gurriel (1B): $4,900
Alex Bregman (3B): $4,700

The Astros have an implied team total hovering right around six runs, but they very easily could double that in actual output tonight. Miguel Gonzalez is a bad pitcher, who allows a bunch of fly balls, which isn’t going to end well against a potent Houston offense. A full-blown stack will likely be hard to employ unless you can identify some cheap complimentary hitters, but you definitely will want some exposure here. Interestingly enough, the ‘cheapest’ hitter listed above is Alex Bregman, who has actually been the best fantasy producer of the bunch over the past 10 games. Guaranteed Rate Field plays very well for right-handed power, which is just another positive factor of many in favor of the Astros tonight.

Twins @ Brewers Low-Owned Game Stack

Twins

Brian Dozier (2B): $4,600
Miguel Sano (3B): $4,600
Eddie Rosario (OF): $3,800
Jorge Polanco (SS): $3,300
Max Kepler (OF): $3,200

Brewers

Travis Shaw (3B): $4,400
Ryan Braun (OF): $4,300
Orlando Arcia (SS): $4,000
Keon Broxton (OF): $3,900

The Twins will be facing Brandon Woodruff, who will be making his second career start tonight at home. Woodruff projects as an average starter at best, although he is coming off of a strong big league debut. This contest features an implied game total of 10 runs, with the Twins settling in the mid-4s right now. Dozier is in the middle of a power surge, as he’s clubbed five over his last 10 games to go along with 11 runs batted in. Rosario is a notoriously streaky hitter, and he appears to be in the midst of one right now, as he’s hitting .263 and has three home runs along with two doubles over his last 10 games. Polanco is making a case to stay in the lineup, as he’s collected nine hits over his last six games and Kepler is always a power threat (three home runs over last 10 games). On the Milwaukee side of things, there’s quite a contrast between hot and cold right now in terms of the hitters. The above four are likely your better targets against an overachieving Bartolo Colon, and I suppose you could toss Eric Thames into the mix if you want to chase a home run. Vegas expects runs to be scored in this game, and I think it could fly under the radar in terms of ownership.

Hot Hitter

Joey Votto (1B – CIN): $5,400 vs. SD
Votto is white-hot right now, hitting .436 .487 with a .282 .359 ISO over the last two weeks (see what I did there? He was here I this spot Monday and has since continued his surge). Despite the lefty/lefty matchup, I think there’s some merit to utilizing Votto in tournaments this evening. He sports a .408 wOBA against left-handed pitchers this season, and it’s not like he will be facing Clayton Kershaw tonight (Travis Wood is bad). I’m hoping the handedness of the matchup keeps a hot Votto a bit lower in terms of ownership, which should make him a great GPP play.

Batter vs. Pitcher

Dustin Pedroia (2B – BOS): $3,600 @ TB (vs. Jake Odorizzi)
Pedroia returned to the lineup last night for the Red Sox and hit second in the order, so I’d expect that to continue this evening. I already picked on Odorizzi’s issues with same-handed hitters, so the history only further enhances the case for Pedroia. In 30 career at-bats against Odorizzi, Pedroia sports a .433 AVG with three home runs and a 1.252 OPS.

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Adam Sutton is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Adam, follow him @DraftStars_Adam. You can find more of Adam’s work at DraftStars.net.


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