DraftKings MLB Value Plays: Wednesday (8/9)
Welcome back to another edition of our MLB Value Plays on DraftKings. We will be offering up a pitcher under $8k, as well as a hitter at each position, and three in the outfield, that are priced $3.5k or below. A new feature to my value play article this year will be keeping track of how many home runs we have provided to our readers.
Value Homers This Season: 16
Ivan Nova (PIT): $7,300 @ DET
With the departure of JD Martinez, the Tigers offense is just a mess against right-handed pitching. Ivan Nova is never someone that I want to have in my lineup, because the ceiling is limited, but at the price, in this matchup, I do believe that at least the floor is safe. There, of course, is always a risk in locking anyone into your lineup, but based on how bad things have gone for Detroit, I see the upside for Nova tonight.
Yadier Molina (STL): $3,500 vs KC
Don’t look now, but Yadier Molina is killing the baseball. He has a ton of upside when he is on, and he is certainly on right now. He gets the benefit of taking on Trevor Cahill, who is not a very good professional baseball player at all. His .359 wOBA and 22.6% HR/FB ratio will almost certainly get him into trouble tonight. Molina is one of the better offensive hitters in the game, and his upside at this price is awesome.
Tommy Joseph (PHI): $3,000 @ ATL
If you have read this throughout the year, you will have likely seen a lot of Tommy Joseph in my articles. It is not because I am always writing this article when he is going up against a mid-tier lefty. I do believe that Sean Newcomb is a good pitcher, but ultimately is not someone who needs to be avoided at all costs. Newcomb is allowing a 42.6% fly ball rate, which could haunt him in this. The upside is there at a solid price.
Adrian Sanchez (WAS): $2,300 vs. MIA
It is worth noting that Sanchez could very easily not make it into the lineup tonight. He has been filling in where the Nationals have holes or when guys need the night off. This is not necessarily an indication of being in a great matchup, but just how barren the position is. Adam Conley is not a horrible pitcher all the time, and has posted some solid games this year. However, he does have blow-up potential, and if Sanchez is in the lineup, he could be decent exposure to what could be a high scoring offense.
Evan Longoria (TBR) : $3,300 vs. BOS
Rick Porcello has been all over the place this year. He has his good moments, and he certainly has his bad ones. He has not been great against right-handers this year, sporting a .348 wOBA, 35% fly ball rate and 38% hard contact. Longoria has not had a terrific season, but he is still a good enough hitter than this price does not do him justice. I do not think I would go with him in cash games, but I think he makes sense in tournaments.
Xander Bogaerts (BOS) : $3,200 @ TB
Jake Odorizzi is a solid but unspectacular pitcher, who I think we can go up against tonight. I do feel like I would rather go with a Boston stack over a one off, but if there was any one off, it would be Bogaerts. Odorizzi is allowing a 43% fly ball rate, 20.6% HR/FB ratio and 46.3% hard contact, so there is definitely a reason to like Bogaerts tonight. He typically leaves you with nothing, though huge games are not part of his game.
Jake Marisnick (HOU) : $3,300 @ CWS
I am not a huge fan of the lefty on lefty matchup, but I do want to get cheap exposure to the Houston Astros tonight. Against lefties, Gonzalez is allowing a .365 wOBA, 39.6% fly ball rate and 35.5% hard contact. Marisnick can burn you just as easily as he can help you out, but like I said, I will take the guy hitting ninth in a stack that could score a lot tonight.
Corey Dickerson (TBR) : $3,400 vs. BOS
I did not intend in going after Rick Porcello so heavily, but I cannot pass up Dickerson at this price. Yes, he is struggling right now at the plate. Porcello is pitching well enough and is also coming off a pretty solid game against this same Rays team a few weeks back. Still, he is giving up a 46.1% fly ball rate and 44.4% hard contact to lefties, so it is not out of the realm of possibilities that Dickerson could have a big night tonight.
Jesse Winker (CIN): $3,300 vs. SD
Travis Wood may not give up a ton of hard contact, but he is still giving up a .363 wOBA and 39.3% fly ball rate. The Reds are likely to score some runs here, and Winker has the chances to be a part of that. The price is very fair and I think you will probably get him at extremely low ownership as well. There is nothing not to like about Winker tonight.