Welcome back to the FantasyPros monthly exit velocity report. This is the fourth edition of our report looking at the biggest changes in EV from month to month. Three hitters with some of the biggest changes on each side will be examined to see if their results match their batted ball output, and what owners should be doing with that information.

I’ve specifically looked at changes in fly ball and line drive exit velocity. To take the All-Star Break into account, I’ve lowered the minimum batted ball total from 30 to 25, as a number of regulars fell into the 25-30 range given the reduced number of games. All velocity data has been obtained from Baseball Savant on Thursday, August 3rd.

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Risers

Giancarlo Stanton (OF – MIA): 101.4 mph (+6.0 mph)
The old Giancarlo Stanton had been somewhat overshadowed by the new Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Judge, throughout the first half, despite having a very nice season of his own. There’s no question which of the two had the better July, though (Home Run Derby aside). Stanton led all hitters with his 101.4 mph average FB/LD exit velocity, matching up nicely with the fact that he also led baseball in homers, with 12.

Stanton didn’t just hit homers in July, slashing .280/.407/.731 for the month, walking almost as often as he struck out. There was some evidence in the first half that suggested Stanton was actually trying to hit the ball less hard, trading some power for more contact, as outlined by Dave Cameron at FanGraphs. July saw Stanton’s extreme high-end power return with a vengeance, as he hit an incredible 12 out of his 37 flies and liners at 110 mph or more, and 25 of them over 100 mph.

What’s more, Stanton did that without a huge jump in strikeout rate. He actually struck out less in July than he did in April or June, and his 21.2% strikeout rate is far below any of his previous career marks, which have all been up towards 30%. The 27-year-old can’t sustain July’s level of performance all year, but it’s clear that the incredible power is still intact, and if he has found a way to combine that with a reduced strikeout rate, he might finally be the first-round talent fantasy owners have been dreaming on for years.

Scooter Gennett (2B/OF – CIN): 96.5 mph (+5.3)
In June, Scooter Gennett hit four home runs in a game. Naturally, in July he actually increased his average FB/LD EV, adding six more homers to the nine he hit in June. It’s doubtful whether anyone really predicted Gennett’s sudden offensive outburst, but it seems to be more real with every month that passes.

It should be noted that Gennett is most definitely not Stanton. His hardest-hit ball of July – 106.7 mph – would rank just 16th amongst Stanton’s batted balls for the month. He’s also one of our small sample products. The only reason Gennett is here at all is because of the relaxed batted ball criteria, as he had just 28 flies and liners in July.

That said, there is one obvious change, and that’s a new pull-happy approach. Gennett does have the power to hit one out the other way, but of his 18 homers, 14 have been pulled to right field, with just one to CF and three to left. His average launch angle has climbed from 10.5 degrees in 2015, to 11.7 last season, and 12.7 in 2017. His exit velocity has followed a similar trend, jumping 2.6 mph in total over the same span.

Coupled with this focus on the pull side is improved selectivity. Gennett is swinging at fewer pitches outside the zone than ever before, and has lowered his overall swing rate too. This looks very much like the Brian Dozier change, albeit without the same degree of patience. Gennett is looking for those pitches he can yank down the line for homers and staying away from anything on the outside edge of the plate and beyond, as well as up at the top of the zone, where his power doesn’t play as well.

Nelson Cruz (OF/DH – SEA): 100.0 mph (+5.2)
A move to Seattle and advancing age had many predicting the demise of Cruz as a high-end fantasy commodity, yet here we are in the midst of another stellar season at age 37. His current walk rate would represent the best full-season mark of his career, while his strikeout rate would be the lowest since 2011. July saw Cruz add another seven homers to his total, keeping him on pace for yet another 30-bomb season, although 40 is starting to look a little out of reach.

July was a little reassuring for Cruz owners on the power front, albeit not so in terms of the average. His average FB/LD EV for the season is now up to 98.2 mph, just 1 mph behind last year’s mark, but he hit just .239 for the month, not aided by a .246 BABIP. There was also no extra-base power outside of the home runs, with just one double.

The 37-year-old’s average launch angle has actually been going up, and that’s reflected in the shift from line drives to fly balls. In 2015, when he hit .302, his LD% per FanGraphs was 20.4%, with a 34% FB rate, but those numbers are 16.5% and 42.2% respectively, much closer to his performance in Texas when he was a .260-.265 hitter and not the .285-.300 hitter he has been in Seattle.

Perhaps he’s ever so slightly slower with his swing than he has been in the past couple of seasons, and he’s going to loft a few more balls to the warning track for easier outs than he used to, reducing the average somewhat. On the other hand, Cruz was also reasonably unlucky based on his batted ball contact, with an xwOBA of .780 on his flies & liners, but an actual wOBA of just .584. If he continues to hit the ball as he did in July, he should be just fine the rest of the season.

Fallers

Gary Sanchez (C – NYY): 92.8 mph (-6.6)
Sanchez has never really had a poor month before, but it finally happened in July, as his wRC+ was just 70 and he had an OPS of just .668 with three home runs. Although many catchers would kill for that kind of monthly performance, it was far below what we’ve come to expect from Sanchez, who has a .281/.356/.558 line after 547 major league plate appearances.

For Sanchez to drop 6.6 mph from June’s performance tells you just how incredible he was that month, with a 99.4 mph FB/LD EV and nine home runs to show for it. 67.8% of his batted balls were hit over 95 mph in June, but less than half of his July flies and liners hit that mark, and his five hardest-hit balls in June all came off the bat faster than his top speed in July.

One concerning aspect of Sanchez’s July performance was his tendency to chase. His irolling 30-game O-Swing% was at 38% at the start of August. In addition to producing some less optimal contact, that also caused his swinging strike rate to rise above 15%, marking the first 30-game stretch in which that has been the case over his short career.

Sanchez has tremendous power and huge potential at a premium position. This past month was a reminder that every player struggles at some point and there will likely be more to come for Sanchez, who still has swing-and-miss in his game and is starting to find the league adjusting to him. He’s still just 24 and with some more selectivity and patience, he could establish himself as the no-doubt No. 1 catcher for years to come. Just be prepared for stretches of poor batting average as he tries to make those adjustments.

Mitch Moreland (1B – BOS): 91.0 mph (-6.5)
Mitchy Two-Bags finally traded his doubles power for some homer power in June, and it brought him six round-trippers but just a .242 average. Then both went away in July, as he hit a miserable .145/.264/.171 to provide almost no offensive value for the Red Sox whatsoever.

Moreland’s problem in July looked to be one of elevation – too much of it – and location. His average FB/LD launch angle went from 24.9 degrees to 28. The first baseman is already right on the borderline of ideal exit velocity, averaging just under 95 mph on his flies and liners the last couple of years, and there’s a massive difference between 25 degrees and 28 in terms of results at the kind of EV Moreland usually operates at. At 95 mph, for instance, balls hit at 25 degrees have had a .348 average and .491 slugging percentage; at 28, it’s .273 and .409. It gets even more extreme just slightly down the scale: at 92 mph, it’s .265/.361 at 25 degrees and .118/.159 at 28.

Fenway is also not a great park for lefties to hit home runs unless they’re pulled directly down the line, and Moreland didn’t really get hold of anything to right field in July, instead making his hardest contact to center. Whether that was because he was too late on the ball or that was a deliberate approach is unclear. What we had in July was Moreland, with less than elite power, not pulling the ball in the air effectively, and getting under it a little too much. What does that look like in practice? Something like this play, in which Moreland got more than enough on the ball (103.8 mph) but also underneath it too much (34 deg) and hit it to CF rather than right.

Yes, Moreland can get the ball out to CF in Fenway, having done it against Jose Berrios late in June. Nonetheless, his margin for error, especially with the kind of power he is capable of generating and the park he plays half his games in, is very small, and he might be a more productive player if he can focus on hitting more line drives and less on getting the ball out of the park. That might make him unusable on a power basis in most fantasy leagues, but July’s production wasn’t usable in any league.

Matt Carpenter (1B/2B/3B – STL): 89.2 mph (-5.7)

There were a lot of choices for the Fallers section, including players who have appeared here before such as Corey Seager and Cesar Hernandez, who seem to be more streaky with their batted ball contact on a month-to-month basis than most players. Carpenter is a new name for the report, however, and with injury concerns surrounding the Cardinals infielder, this is an excellent time to check in.

Carpenter’s 89.2 mph EV put him down with Denard Span, Escobars Alcides and Eduardo, and Jose Reyes in July, which doesn’t seem like a great group for a player fantasy owners are hoping to get power from. His season up to July had been characterized by a rather fly-ball heavy approach, with his FB% north of 50% and 14 home runs through the first three months, but also a .237 average prior to the All-Star Break.

July’s .322 average, 27% line drive rate and a drop to a 43.2% fly ball rate all, therefore, represented significant changes, but Carpenter also didn’t hit a single home run. This wasn’t a case of the 31-year-old getting robbed, either. His furthest-hit ball went 388 feet, something he accomplished seven times in June alone, and only three batted balls out of 50 traveled over 100 mph, compared to 15 out of 49 in June.

There were plenty of doubles – 10 – and the jump in line drive rate suggests that perhaps Carpenter tried to change his approach to improve his average. It should also be noted that he suffered from quad tightness that caused him to miss a little time, and he was scratched from Wednesday’s game this week due to hip discomfort. The significant drop in exit velocity, especially given his inability to hit triple digits with regularity, is cause for concern, and it has now been over two weeks since Carpenter reached 100 mph on a batted ball. The plate discipline is still outstanding and that alone should keep him relevant in OBP formats, but for a player who gives you little speed, the apparent drop in power, whether through a deliberate approach change or a nagging injury, is a big concern.

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Darius Austin is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Darius, find his work at BP Wrigleyville, Friends with Fantasy Benefits, Banished to the Pen and Bat Flips & Nerds and follow him @DariusA64.