I’ve been putting together a mock draft series where I cover the Zero RB Strategy, Heavy RB Strategy and my take on a Perfect Auction Draft. Today’s mock draft may be the most important, however. We will be looking at who the expert consensus would draft if it were one team in a league against the general public. At FantasyPros, we have 140 experts from all around the industry that list their rankings with us for an accuracy competition, and we use that data to publish out Expert Consensus Rankings. The best way to figure out where the ADP (average draft position) is flawed, is to compare ECR to it. This draft will clue us in on some of the pieces the experts encourage you to draft above their ADP. We will be picking from the 3rd slot in a 12 team league, and I will assume that every player is selected directly in line with their ADP.

*ECR and ADP update throughout every day, so the listed rankings may be different when you read the article.

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1.3 Antonio Brown (WR – PIT): ECR #3, ADP #4

The general public would be taking Ezekiel Elliott here, but with the question of a multi-game suspension lingering, enough experts have Zeke ranked low enough that Brown has surpassed him for the third spot. In fact, a handful of experts, including FantasyPros’ Mike Tagliere have Elliott outside of their top three running backs. For what it’s worth, many of us would have actually taken Brown third even before the Zeke suspension talks.

2.10 Amari Cooper (WR –  OAK) : ECR #20, ADP #23

Players like Marshawn Lynch and Aaron Rodgers are being drafted over Cooper, which is just absurd. Many think of Amari as having been a disappointment in 2016, but he still finished as a top 12 wide receiver despite an oddly low TD-rate. Remember, he did all that despite being just 22 years old! He should see positive regression in that department this season with another 1,100+ yard season.

3.3 Doug Baldwin (WR – SEA) : ECR #21, ADP #28

Baldwin may not be the sexiest player, standing at just 5’10” without a standout athletic profile, but he has produced in a big way for fantasy owners in back to back seasons and it should be expected once again. The experts have taken notice that Russell Wilson went back to being QB #4 in the second half after a slow start due to injury, so don’t expect anything different than the WR #10 performance we saw in 2016.

4.10 Ty Montgomery (RB – GB): ECR #42, ADP #50

Until last year’s disaster, Green Bay produced top notch running back performances for three straight seasons. If they do have a three down back, you’d better believe he will be an RB1 this season. Montgomery was far and away their best rusher last season and spent the entire off-season beefing up and working on pass blocking. Should he manage to hold off the rookies for 200+ touches, he may end up one of the top values in fantasy football this season.

5.3 Mark Ingram (RB – NO (RB – NO): ECR #46, ECR #53

Everyone in the general public seems to be worried about Ingram because of Adrian Peterson joining the team, but last year they supported two top 33 running backs and Ingram managed to finish higher than Jaya Ajayi, Lamar Miller, Todd Gurley and Isaiah Crowell. Even if they split some of the work, Ingram should be regarded as a sure thing and consistent performer. Had AP not joined, we’d be talking about a second round pick.

6.10 Bilal Powell (RB – NYJ) : ECR #58, ADP #75

Last season, Powell finished as the #22 running back despite having just 189 touches and scoring just 5 touchdowns. He was 2nd in the league with 5.5 yards per carry and is one of the best receiving backs in football. That kind of efficiency paired with what could be a substantial increase in touches is a terrific recipe. Positive touchdown regression should be expected as well.

7.3 Frank Gore (RB – IND) : ECR #66, ADP #77

Like Ingram and Baldwin before him, there is nothing exciting about drafting Gore. He is old, slow and rushed for less than 4 yards per carry last season (more than Melvin Gordon, mind you). We are talking about one of the only three running backs in football with two consecutive top 12 seasons, however. You can trust Gore to pound away once again, and as the team’s first back off the bench, it almost feels like cheating.

8.10 Pierre Garcon (WR – SF) : ECR #84, ADP #94

The last time Garcon was paired up with Kyle Shannahan, he led the NFL in receptions. Not to say he will do that again, but he is the only decent wideout on the roster and playing for a team that will have loads of positive game scripts. Garcon is among the safest receivers in the middle rounds this season.

9.3 Jeremy Maclin (WR – BAL) : ECR #90, ADP #102

Maclin is one of just nine receivers to average eight or more touchdowns in each of his previous five healthy seasons. The rest, as you might suspect, are all bigger names. Somehow, Maclin accomplished that with the likes of Alex Smith, Nick Foles and Mark Sanchez throwing him passes. Now that he is in an offense with the guy who leads the NFL in passing attempts over the past two seasons, we could see Maclin’s best season yet.

10.10 Eric Ebron (TE – DET) (TE – DET): ECR #107, ADP #127

The former top 10 NFL pick had 55 yards per game last season which was neck and neck with Jordan Reed who is being selected 70 spots higher despite significant health concerns. The difference between the two is that Ebron only got in the end zone once. That should change this season with Boldin gone. Add that with the fact that Ebron is as consistent as they come and he should be considered one of the top half-dozen tight ends to own.

11.3 Tyrod Taylor (QB – BUF) : ECR #112, ADP #124

Every single expert we’ve had on our podcast agrees that Taylor is a startable fantasy quarterback once again this season, but is somehow being drafted as the QB #16. He has been a top 8 fantasy QB in back to back season, and that is with Robert Woods as his top receiver. With Sammy Watkins back, Anquan Boldin and Zay Jones joining the fray, and Rex Ryan out the door, we could see his best year yet.

12.10 Jeremy Hill (RB – CIN) : ECR #128, ADP #130

Say what you will about Joe Mixon‘s ability, but right now, Hill is looking down on him from the top of the depth chart. He hasn’t been anywhere near the most efficient runner in the league, but he is the boss on the goal-line and should Mixon and/or Bernard go down, Hill could see a workhorse’s load of carries. Don’t be quick to forget that we were all taking him in the first round just two seasons ago.

13.3 Carolina Panthers DST: ECR #8 DST, ADP #9 DST
14.10 Sebastian Janikowski: ECR #9 K, ADP #14 K

The Full Roster

 
Thanks for reading. If you haven’t already, please check out the FantasyPros Football Podcast (below) that I co-host with Mike Tagliere. Good luck this season.

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