The trade dust has cleared, and many teams have settled into defined bullpen roles. It’s tougher, but far from impossible to find a stout middle reliever on the waiver wire.
Bullpen prospects rarely receive hype, so fresh faces will materialize down the stretch. They should supply more of this column’s inspiration over the final weeks. Yet three notable burgeoning newcomers-Emilio Pagan, Drew Steckenrider, and Trevor Hildenberger-have already basked in the spotlight.
This week instead looks to a prized young starting pitcher searching for relief stability, a slow starter rebounding, an old stalwart returning, and a steady performer continuing to produce.
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Even after the Boston Red Sox welcomed Joe Kelly back from the disabled list and acquired Addison Reed, Matt Barnes has tightened his grip on a vital late-inning role.
In a bullpen that ranks third in ERA, Barnes has been Boston’s second-best reliever after closer Craig Kimbrel. His 3.24 ERA and 1.11 WHIP won’t dazzle anybody, but the 27-year-old also touts a 53.6 ground-ball rate and 65 strikeouts in 58.1 innings. Reed’s presence hasn’t stopped him from claiming four holds in August, boosting his season tally to 20.
Prior to relinquishing a single to Aaron Judge on Sunday, he worked six consecutive hitless innings. He has also vultured six wins this season, an unpredictable but nice bonus.
More telling for Barnes’ late-season forecast, he has often pitched after Reed in close contests. While the former New York Mets righty has a stronger track record, he carries a 3.15 ERA and 3.59 FIP after handing four runs to the New York Yankees last Friday. Red Sox manager John Farrell appears to be sticking with Barnes as his primary, or at least co-setup man.
He’s likely already owned in deeper holds leagues, but a standard mixed league may only give homes to brand names. Although a strong postseason could place Barnes on everyone’s radar next year, he isn’t treated like a top-shelf middle reliever yet.
The St. Louis Cardinals’ bullpen keeps getting deeper. A week after examining Tyler Lyons’ emergence as a significant left-handed threat, a returning Zach Duke has staked a bigger role.
In a pleasant surprise, the 34-year-old made his season debut on July 21 after undergoing Tommy John surgery in October. As Cardinals manager Mike Matheny told the St. Louis Post-Dispatch‘s Ben Frederickson, the pitcher beat his optimistic timetable.
“I remember right when he got out from surgery, he said, ‘You’ll have me next September,'” Matheny said. “I didn’t think July was in the conversation.”
From 2014 to 2016, Duke recorded a 2.70 ERA, 10.38 K/9 and the 10th-most holds (64). That past success has led him back into Matheny’s trust zone. He notched holds in back-to-back outings, preserving three-run leads in the seventh and eighth, before taking a loss Wednesday night.
At his best, Duke is no mere left-handed specialist. While he walked 23 of 147 right-handed batters faced last season, he also stymied them to a .198 batting average and .288 slugging percentage. Yet a younger, healthier Lyons has not yielded a run since July 6, so he remains the better left-handed setup man to complement Seung Hwan Oh. He’s also the far superior fantasy add.
Yet Duke already has three holds in nine appearances. Although Matheny should use him sparingly, his appearances will count. That makes him an interesting deep-league add, especially if he can repair a microscopic strikeout rate back to previous norms.
Highlighted last week, Hildenberger quickly received mainstream attention by recording his first save on Sunday. He’s now the top holds or saves-speculation grab in a dicey Minnesota Twins bullpen, but Ryan Pressly is slowly beckoning for consideration as well.
Unlike Hildenberger, there’s no reason to believe a 28-year-old with a 5.27 ERA would usurp the closer’s role in September. Yet Pressly has blossomed into one of their top middle-relief options after a dreadful start.
The righty entered June with a 9.50 ERA and 1.61 WHIP. He has since registered a 2.19 ERA and 0.77 WHIP. Since issuing seven walks in May, he has surrendered one in the ensuing 24.2 frames.
Because of all the early damage, the Twins haven’t optimized those results in high-leverage situations. Hindenberger, Matt Belisle, and left-handed specialist Taylor Rogers are their only noteworthy options after dealing Brandon Kintzler, so it’s time to forgive Pressly’s April and May struggles and ride the hot hand.
If they allot him more hold opportunities, fantasy managers should look past the atrocious start as well, as Pressly also sports a 5.00 K/BB ratio, 13.7 swinging-strike rate, and 3.03 SIERA. Having allowed one hit in nine August innings, he’s a far cry from the guy who couldn’t find the strike zone three months ago.
Marte has yet to unlock the “talented, but raw starter dominates in the bullpen” formula. The rookie has proven just as erratic in shorter spurts, permitting 12 walks and 15 runs (14 earned) over 22 relief innings.
He also has 30 strikeouts from the bullpen, hinting at grand upside if he can harness passable command.
Baseball America‘s No. 48 prospect has displayed maddening inconsistency in both starting and relief assignments. Put it all together, and he has a 4.99 ERA and 1.41 WHIP, but also an 11.57 K/9 to remind everyone of his superb potential. He flashed that sky-high upside by striking out all four batters faced on Tuesday.
“His arm strength is incredible,” Houston Astros manager A.J. Hinch told MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez. “When he’s locked in the strike zone, and I have said this before, he can really be a dominant pitcher.”
Anyone who gambled on fellow Astros relievers Michael Feliz and James Hoyt has experienced the frustration of whiffs not keeping runs off the scoreboard. Many fantasy gamers have no need to stomach such risk from a middle reliever yet to tally a hold, so Marte only warrants a deep-league flier for now.
Nevertheless, keep close tabs on his progress. The Astros should want to see if he merits a postseason roster spot, so more outings like his last would lead to more meaningful opportunities. If he can locate the plate, Marte would morph into a major late-season asset.
Note: All advanced statistics courtesy of FanGraphs.
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Andrew Gould is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @andrewgould4.
