With MLB’s season winding down and football stealing the spotlight, fantasy baseball players are at grave risk of growing complacent in September. Perhaps some have already fallen into unhealthy patterns of ignoring the waiver wire.
Even in holds leagues, choosing the right middle relievers will often fall by the wayside. The closer carousel has mostly stopped, so any available player is a long shot to produce saves during the final month. One would hope the top setup men are also accounted for after five months.
Yet three previously highlighted pitchers have still gone unnoticed with consensus ownership rates of 1 or 2 percent. A well-traveled veteran has flourished following a change of scenery, and an unexpected player has quietly been one of August’s premier relievers.
For the final time this season, let’s take a look at five middle relievers to target in holds or save-plus-holds formats.
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Brandon Morrow stormed out of the gate with 12.2 scoreless innings, landing a spot in this column eight weeks ago. One would have expected such a rousing arrival for a former strikeout-hoarding starter to capture more recognition, especially since he’s playing for the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Two months later, the 33-year-old righty touts a 2.12 ERA, 0.81 WHIP and 36 strikeouts in 34 innings. While he has collected a tame six holds, he has also stumbled upon five wins and a save as part of one of the best teams ever. Yet his consensus ownership rate has only risen to two percent.
Perhaps fantasy managers don’t trust him to stay healthy. Or maybe more simply need to expand their horizons beyond the typical five-by-five format. They should not, however, fret regression. If anything, he could get better.
The hard-thrower struggled with command during his formative years, but he’s now consistently attacking the plate with a 67.2 first-pitch strike percentage. Combine that with a 16.1 swinging-strike rate, and his 9.72 K/9 not only looks sustainable, but improvable. Ken Giles has coalesced the same whiff rate with an 11.96 K/9.
Already a virtual playoff lock, the Dodgers also won’t want to overwork anybody in their deep bullpen. That goes twofold for Morrow, who didn’t debut for Los Angeles until late May. He’s still capable of contributing before a possible postseason coming-out-party.
Brandishing a 4.57 ERA and 1.43 WHIP, Adam Morgan looks like a middling reliever on a mediocre Philadelphia Phillies squad. But a refined look suggests the former starter has situated into his new role.
An afterthought for most of 2017, Morgan has suddenly emerged as a middle-relief captain in August. Over 13.1 innings, the 27-year-old has stockpiled 19 strikeouts while yielding just two walks, one extra-base hit (a double) and one run. Per Brooks Baseball, he has elevated his fastball velocity during this period while generating 23 whiffs with his slider.
His 0.73 August FIP ranks second among all relievers behind Chad Green, a star swingman who has rightfully received mixed-league attention. Morgan, however, still has unenviable season rates and just two holds for a rebuilding team, so his ownership percentage rounds down to zero.
Joaquin Benoit and Pat Neshek combined for 23 holds before leaving the Phillies, so don’t underestimate their setup men’s earning power. Along with facing other NL East laggards, they could catch the Washington Nationals and Dodgers napping with their respective divisions firmly in hand. If hold opportunities arise, Morgan should claim some alongside Luis Garcia.
Sergio Romo’s stock nosedived enough for the Dodgers to dump him onto the Tampa Bay Rays with cash for a player-to-be-named later. Despite his 6.12 ERA at the time of the transaction, the Rays took a no-risk flier on a veteran with three World Series rings and the fifth-best K/BB ratio (5.66) of all qualified relievers since 2010.
The gambit has paid off handsomely. After surrendering 17 earned runs over 25 disastrous innings, Romo has allowed four earned runs in 19.1 frames for Tampa Bay. More notably, he has regained his command. Following an uncharacteristic dozen walks issued with the Dodgers, the 34-year-old has since permitted one free pass.
That has helped him earn a 0.67 WHIP since the trade, but his positive regression has steered too far in the opposite direction. Despite a drop in strikeouts, he wields a fortuitous .196 BABIP with his new squad.
If he can keep the ball in the park, Romo remains a steadfast reliever whose reputation and recent success will manufacture more high-leverage spots. Beware of his long-ball woes, but don’t forget about him in deeper leagues.
Trevor Hildenberger had all the ingredients of a popular pickup after recording a stray save on August 12. The Minnesota Twins traded closer Brandon Kintzler to Washington, and Matt Belisle felt every bit like a ninth-inning placeholder.
Few managers took notice. Yet to record another save, he’s available in 99 percent of Yahoo leagues. Belisle has fortified some job security with a 1.72 second-half ERA, but that has only dropped his season clip to 4.53.
Hildenberger, meanwhile, has registered a 2.73 ERA, 34 strikeouts and four walks in 29.2 innings. He has worked his way into a vital late-inning role for the surprising wild-card contender, compiling all six of his holds in August.
The sidearmer has also leveraged his deceptive downward movement into a 60.0 ground-ball rate. Unlike most Twins relievers, he pairs those weak batted balls with punchouts. He’s a strong candidate to close next season, but for now serves as a viable holds contributor to close the season. Don’t rule out some September saves if Belisle falters.
When the Miami Marlins traded David Phelps and A.J. Ramos, most gamers wagered on Kyle Barraclough eventually rising to a ninth-inning role. Brad Ziegler has converted nine saves without allowing a run in August, so everyone can stop speculating on a September job change anyway.
But what if Drew Steckenrider is the true next-man up?
Based on usage, Barraclough is still the heir apparent and second in command. Steckenrider, however, can challenge that hierarchy with a pristine 2.78 ERA in 22.2 innings. Having pocketed 32 strikeouts and eightwalks, his 24.5 K-BB percentage nearly doubles Barraclough’s 12.7 clip.
Aside from a five-run outlier (two earned) against the New York Mets, the 26-year-old has dominated in August. His 18 strikeouts this month haven’t received much notice, perhaps because a .375 BABIP has bloated his season WHIP to 1.37.
Having compiled six holds in 25 appearances for the red-hot Marlins, he’s valuable in his current assignment. Although they’re both worth owning, Steckenrider is superior to Barraclough when removing save-speculating from the picture.
Note: All advanced statistics courtesy of FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.
Andrew Gould is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @andrewgould4.
