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Fantasy Baseball Risers & Fallers (8/7 – 8/13)

Fantasy Baseball Risers & Fallers (8/7 – 8/13)

Another wave of injuries claimed some of the top baseball players last week, but the season forges onward. Keep an eye out for some end of year prospect promotions, particularly when rosters expand in September.

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Rising in Value

Asher Wojciechowski (SP – CIN)
Wojciechowski is a 28-year-old rookie with a very unique profile. His strikeout and walk rates are near elite at 25.3% and 5.0% respectively, though he allows 55.1% flyballs which has inflated his FIP to 4.50. However, 20% of those are infield flies, so xwOBA (.270) and SIERA (3.79) like him. Pitching in the Reds ballpark is a hindrance for the flyball pitcher, but he’s still worth a look.

James McCann (C – DET)
There is some evidence that Comerica inflates Statcast data, but McCann still carries an excellent .359 xwOBA. With Alex Avila out of the picture, McCann is the unquestioned starter for Detroit going forward. He should continue to provide solid power numbers at the shallow catcher position.

C.J. Cron (1B – LAA)
Albert Pujols is still batting third for the Angels, but Cron has overtaken him as the team’s best power hitter behind Mike Trout. His eight HRs in 203 PAs aren’t overly impressive, but he does have an average exit velocity of 89.7 mph and an xwOBA of .357. He has spent some time in Triple-A this season, but the Angels would be remiss to send him back down again when he’s driving the ball so well.

Anthony Banda (SP – ARI)
Banda struggled a bit in the minor leagues with a 5.13 ERA, though his peripherals remained decent. In the majors, he has a 4.60 ERA, but a 3.27 FIP and promising 24.6% strikeout rate. He’ll need to work on improving his control, but Banda’s first stint in the big leagues has been promising.

Jhoulys Chacin (SP – SD)
Chacin’s profile isn’t very exciting with mediocre strikeout and walk rates, though he does have a 51.1% groundball rate and has limited hard contact. With so many pitchers going down with injuries lately, you could do worse than Chacin to fill innings. His batted ball stats indicate he should be able to maintain a slightly above average ERA.

Falling in Value

Yasmani Grandal (C – LAD)
Grandal’s plate discipline has evaporated – his walk rate is down 7.1% from 2016. The culprit is a 9.5% increase in O-Swing rate in addition to a 2.5% increase in swinging strike rate. As a result, he has just a .285 xwOBA this season. His offense is being propped up by a .321 BABIP this season, but once that declines, he’ll have to be more selective to have value.

Mallex Smith (OF – TB)
Smith has the lowest estimated swing speed by Statcast in baseball at 50.9 mph, a full 15.3 mph below Aaron Judge. Speed is the carrying tool of his offensive profile, but he’s not much more than the discount version of Billy Hamilton right now.

Jason Kipnis (2B – CLE)
Kipnis has struggled with injuries all season and still doesn’t look comfortable at the plate. He’s running the highest soft contact and swinging strike rates of his career and slashing just .227/.286/.390. The Indians don’t have an obvious replacement lined up, so playing time isn’t in jeopardy yet, but Kipnis can’t be counted on for much production during the remainder of the season.

Mike Foltynewicz (SP – ATL)
For someone with an average fastball velocity of 95.6 mph, Foltynewicz doesn’t generate that many swinging strikes. With mediocre control, his peripherals lag behind the physical tools. Since flirting with a no-hitter in his last June start, Folty has a 5.40 ERA and 4.36 FIP. There’s future upside, but his stock is trending downward in redraft leagues.

Zach Davies (SP – MIL)
Coming off a 2016 campaign where Davies posted a 3.97 ERA and 3.89 FIP at the age of 23, some predicted Davies would take another step forward in 2017. He’s done the opposite, seeing his strikeout rate decline and walk rate spike. Davies’ swinging strike rate has dropped to 7.2% this year, well below average, to go with a .337 xwOBA.

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Alex Isherwood is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Alex, check out his archive.

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