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Fantasy Baseball Risers & Fallers (7/25 – 7/31)

Fantasy Baseball Risers & Fallers (7/25 – 7/31)

Yu Darvish to the Dodgers, Sonny Gray to the Yankees, Justin Wilson and Alex Avila to the Cubs, and Addison Reed to the Red Sox were the big storylines of Monday’s trade deadline. These moves have significant fantasy repercussions as well, with Wilson and Reed moving into setup roles and cratering their values in standard leagues. I’ll recap some of those moves among others in this week’s edition of risers and fallers.

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Rising in Value

Danny Salazar (SP – CLE)
Salazar is back. In his first two major league starts in over a month, he has 16 strikeouts and two walks over 13 innings, allowing just two runs. Salazar’s walk rate this season is relatively high at 10.2%, but he also carries a 31.7% strikeout rate. Consistency is not his game, but expect better results over the rest of the season.

Todd Frazier (1B/3B – NYY)
Frazier’s fantasy value has been on the upswing even prior to being traded to New York. He has career bests in swinging strike rate (9.3%) and O-Swing rate (25.7%) without sacrificing quality of contact. Frazier’s .358 xwOBA indicates his stats should continue to improve, and batting in the Yankees lineup should help his scoring numbers.

Charlie Morton (SP – HOU)
Since his return from the DL, Morton has pitched to a 3.23 ERA with 32 strikeouts over 30.2 innings. On the season, he boasts a 25.8% strikeout rate and 50.4% groundball rate, with the only drawback being a walk rate of 9.0%. He’s quietly a strong option at pitcher going forward after revitalizing his career.

Yu Darvish (SP – LAD)
It might seem counterintuitive to put Darvish here after he allowed 10 runs over 3.2 innings in his last start, but his trade to the Dodgers is the primary reason for his increase in value. The Rangers ballpark increases runs by a factor of 1.117, while his new home is the most pitcher-friendly park in the MLB at a factor of 0.877.

Nick Williams (OF – PHI)
I wasn’t that high on Williams coming into the season because of poor strikeout and walk rates, and while they haven’t really improved in his major league debut, he’s still crushing baseballs. With an average exit velocity of 89.9 mph, he ranks 41st among all batters with at least 50 ABs and he also has a solid .338 xwOBA.

Falling in Value

Yonder Alonso (1B – OAK)
Alonso’s hard-hit rate has declined in each month since May, and although he’s still getting on base, he has hit just 3 HRs since the 4th of July. He’s been looking more and more like the old Alonso, and while some of his improvement this season is legitimate, he should be expected to produce at a much lower rate than he did in the first half.

Rick Porcello (SP – BOS)
Porcello’s peripherals aren’t far off those of his 2016 Cy Young campaign, but under the hood is more problematic. In addition to having the lowest groundball rate, Porcello is also allowing the highest hard-hit percentage of his career. With a .335 xwOBA, it’s hard to project him finishing with an ERA lower than the mid fours.

Adam Jones (OF – BAL)
Age has slowly been catching up to Jones, with his wRC+ dropping each season subsequent season, starting in 2012. His .307 xwOBA this season puts him in the range of players like Daniel Descalso and Tucker Barnhart. Playing half his games in Camden Yards inflates his power numbers, but Jones can’t be counted on for much else.

Mike Leake (SP – STL)
Leake still has a terrific 3.28 ERA over the full season, but from June onwards, that has spiked to 4.48. With a 4.08 FIP and 4.24 SIERA, his true talent level is closer to what he has done recently. Since Leake isn’t a heavy strikeout pitcher, he needs to maintain good rates to have much value, and those are starting to dissipate.

J.A. Happ (SP – TOR)
In five July starts, Happ struck out just 19 and walked 14 batters. He had been pitching well since returning from an elbow injury, but he now carries a 4.74 FIP and 4.23 SIERA on the season. Expect him to rebound, but the decline in Happ’s skill set last month is concerning.


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Alex Isherwood is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Alex, check out his archive.

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