The non-waiver trade deadline has come and gone and it was a fun few days – particularly the last few minutes when the National League playoff race turned upside down. But rather than an end to our trading activity, July 31st is simply a day of clarification for fantasy owners. We now feel a little better (or worse) about some closing situations, a little more (or less) secure about some of our players, and a little more (or less) satisfied with our real baseball teams.
For fantasy baseball players, our work is far from done. There’s plenty of time left to help revive our teams or to add that one good piece that’s going to put us over the top. But with the hour getting late, trade values are fluctuating widely. So let’s check in on our weekly trade chart to see how things stand.
Analyze any potential deal with our Trade Analyzer 
| Player | Current Value | Previous Value | +/- |
| Mike Trout (OF – LAA) | 69 | 69 | – |
| Paul Goldschmidt (1B – ARI) | 66 | 66 | – |
| Bryce Harper (OF – WAS) | 65 | 65 | – |
| Mookie Betts (OF – BOS) | 65 | 65 | – |
| Jose Altuve (2B – HOU) | 65 | 65 | – |
| Nolan Arenado (3B – COL) | 64 | 64 | – |
| Joey Votto (1B – CIN) | 60 | 60 | – |
| Charlie Blackmon (OF – COL) | 59 | 59 | – |
| Anthony Rizzo (1B – CHC) | 57 | 57 | – |
| Kris Bryant (3B – CHC) | 56 | 56 | – |
| Manny Machado (3B – BAL) | 54 | 54 | – |
| Chris Sale (SP- CWS) | 54 | 54 | – |
| Max Scherzer (SP – WAS) | 54 | 54 | – |
| Freddie Freeman (1B – ATL) | 53 | 53 | – |
| Corey Seager (SS – LAD) | 45 | 45 | – |
| Corey Kluber (SP – CLE) | 45 | 45 | – |
| Josh Donaldson (3B – TOR) | 43 | 45 | -2 |
| Daniel Murphy (2B – WAS) | 43 | 43 | – |
| Nelson Cruz (OF – SEA) | 42 | 42 | – |
| Giancarlo Stanton (OF – MIA) | 42 | 42 | – |
| Edwin Encarnacion (1B – CLE) | 41 | 41 | – |
| J.D. Martinez (OF – DET) | 40 | 38 | +2 |
| Aaron Judge (OF – NYY) | 40 | 40 | – |
| A.J. Pollock (OF – ARI) | 38 | 36 | +2 |
| George Springer (OF – HOU) | 37 | 41 | -4 |
| Yu Darvish (SP – LAD) | 37 | 34 | +3 |
| Jacob deGrom (SP – NYM) | 36 | 36 | – |
| Francisco Lindor (SS – CLE) | 36 | 40 | -4 |
| Wil Myers (1B – SD) | 35 | 35 | – |
| Chris Archer (SP – TB) | 33 | 33 | – |
| Miguel Sano (3B – MIN) | 31 | 31 | – |
| Jose Abreu (1B – CWS) | 31 | 31 | – |
| Miguel Cabrera (1B – DET) | 30 | 33 | -3 |
| Robinson Cano (2B – SEA) | 30 | 30 | – |
| Zack Greinke (SP – ARI) | 30 | 30 | – |
| Billy Hamilton (OF – CIN) | 29 | 29 | – |
| Buster Posey (C – SF) | 28 | 28 | – |
| Jon Lester (SP – CHC) | 28 | 28 | – |
| Brian Dozier (2B – MIN) | 27 | 27 | – |
| Jake Arrieta (SP – CHC) | 27 | 27 | – |
| Madison Bumgarner (SP – SF) | 27 | 26 | +1 |
| Kenley Jansen (RP – LAD) | 26 | 26 | – |
| Craig Kimbrel (RP – BOS) | 26 | 26 | – |
| Dee Gordon (2B – MIA) | 26 | 26 | – |
| Christian Yelich (OF – MIA) | 25 | 26 | -1 |
| Carlos Carrasco (SP – CLE) | 25 | 25 | – |
| Andrew McCutchen (OF – PIT) | 25 | 24 | +1 |
| Anthony Rendon (3B – WAS) | 24 | 24 | – |
| Justin Upton (OF – DET) | 24 | 24 | – |
| Xander Bogaerts (SS – BOS) | 24 | 31 | -7 |
| Gary Sanchez (C – NYY) | 23 | 23 | – |
| Dallas Keuchel (SP – HOU) | 22 | 22 | – |
| Marcell Ozuna (OF – MIA) | 22 | 23 | -1 |
| Carlos Martinez (SP – STL) | 22 | 22 | – |
| Jake Lamb (3B – ARI) | 22 | 22 | – |
| Michael Conforto (OF – NYM) | 22 | 21 | +1 |
| Khris Davis (OF – OAK) | 21 | 21 | – |
| James Paxton (SP – SEA) | 21 | 20 | +1 |
| Cody Bellinger (OF – LAD) | 21 | 21 | – |
| Hanley Ramirez (1B – BOS) | 20 | 22 | -2 |
| Jean Segura (SS – SEA) | 20 | 20 | – |
| Justin Verlander (SP – DET) | 20 | 19 | +1 |
| Carlos Santana (1B – CLE) | 20 | 20 | – |
| Ryan Braun (OF – MIL) | 20 | 20 | – |
| Aroldis Chapman (RP – NYY) | 20 | 19 | +1 |
| Matt Carpenter (1B – STL) | 19 | 19 | – |
| Kyle Seager (3B – SEA) | 19 | 19 | – |
| Jose Ramirez (3B – CLE) | 19 | 19 | – |
| Starling Marte (OF – PIT) | 19 | 19 | – |
| Adrian Beltre (3B – TEX) | 19 | 19 | – |
| Ryan Zimmerman (1B – WAS) | 19 | 19 | – |
| Gerrit Cole (SP – PIT) | 19 | 19 | – |
| Rougned Odor (2B – TEX) | 19 | 19 | – |
| Adam Jones (OF – BAL) | 18 | 18 | – |
| Michael Fulmer (SP – DET) | 18 | 18 | – |
| Roberto Osuna (RP – TOR) | 18 | 18 | – |
| Wade Davis (RP – CHC) | 18 | 18 | – |
| Stephen Strasburg (SP – WAS) | 18 | 12 | +6 |
| Yoenis Cespedes (OF – NYM) | 17 | 17 | – |
| Jose Quintana (SP – CWS) | 17 | 17 | – |
| Lorenzo Cain (OF – KC) | 17 | 17 | – |
| Mike Moustakas (3B – KC) | 17 | 17 | – |
| Eric Thames (1B – MIL) | 16 | 22 | -6 |
| Alexander Colome (RP – TB) | 16 | 16 | – |
| Michael Brantley (OF – CLE) | 16 | 16 | – |
| Greg Holland (RP – COL) | 16 | 16 | – |
| Justin Turner (3B – LAD) | 15 | 15 | – |
| DJ LeMahieu (2B – COL) | 14 | 14 | – |
| Eric Hosmer (1B – KC) | 14 | 14 | – |
| Adam Duvall (OF – CIN) | 14 | 14 | – |
| Johnny Cueto (SP – SF) | 14 | 16 | -2 |
| Corey Knebel (RP – MIL) | 14 | 14 | – |
| Chris Davis (1B – BAL) | 14 | 14 | – |
| Masahiro Tanaka (SP – NYY) | 13 | 12 | +1 |
| Ken Giles (RP – HOU) | 13 | 13 | – |
| Kelvin Herrera (RP – KC) | 13 | 12 | +1 |
| Carlos Gonzalez (OF – COL) | 13 | 13 | – |
| Raisel Iglesias (RP – CIN) | 13 | 11 | +2 |
| Alex Wood (SP – LAD) | 13 | 13 | – |
| Todd Frazier (3B – NYY) | 12 | 13 | -1 |
| Salvador Perez (C – KC) | 12 | 12 | – |
| Evan Longoria (3B – TB) | 12 | 12 | – |
| Felipe Rivero (RP – PIT) | 12 | 11 | +1 |
| Cody Allen (RP – CLE) | 12 | 11 | +1 |
| Kyle Hendricks (SP – CHC) | 12 | 12 | – |
| Elvis Andrus (SS – TEX) | 12 | 10 | +2 |
| Travis Shaw (3B – MIL) | 12 | 12 | – |
| Zach Britton (RP – BAL) | 12 | 4 | +8 |
| Marcus Stroman (SP – TOR) | 12 | 12 | – |
| Luis Severino (SP – NYY) | 12 | 10 | +2 |
| Edwin Diaz (RP – SEA) | 11 | 11 | – |
| Rich Hill (SP – LAD) | 11 | 11 | – |
| Andrew Benintendi (OF – BOS) | 11 | 11 | – |
| Justin Smoak (1B – TOR) | 10 | 10 | – |
| Trea Turner (SS – WAS) | 10 | 10 | – |
| Jimmy Nelson (SP – MIL) | 10 | 6 | +4 |
| Corey Dickerson (OF – TB) | 10 | 10 | – |
| Cole Hamels (SP – TEX) | 10 | 10 | – |
| Jose Berrios (SP – MIN) | 10 | 10 | – |
| Danny Duffy (SP – KC) | 10 | 10 | – |
| Ian Desmond (OF – COL) | 9 | 16 | -7 |
| Trevor Story (SS – COL) | 9 | 9 | – |
| Willson Contreras (C – CHC) | 9 | 8 | +1 |
| Ian Kinsler (2B – DET) | 9 | 9 | – |
| Danny Salazar (SP – CLE) | 9 | 7 | +2 |
| Jay Bruce (OF – NYM) | 9 | 9 | – |
| Jose Bautista (OF – TOR) | 9 | 19 | -10 |
| Yasmani Grandal (C – LAD) | 9 | 9 | – |
| Robbie Ray (SP – ARI) | 8 | 12 | -4 |
| Jonathan Villar (2B – MIL) | 8 | 8 | – |
| Aaron Nola (SP – PHI) | 8 | 7 | +1 |
| Kendrys Morales (1B – TOR) | 8 | 8 | – |
| Lance McCullers (SP – HOU) | 8 | 25 | -17 |
| Rick Porcello (SP – BOS) | 8 | 8 | – |
| Matt Kemp (OF – ATL) | 7 | 18 | -11 |
| Jeff Samardzija (SP – SF) | 7 | 7 | – |
| Sonny Gray (SP – NYY) | 7 | 7 | – |
| Julio Teheran (SP – ATL) | 7 | 9 | -2 |
| Felix Hernandez (SP – SEA) | 7 | 7 | – |
| Odubel Herrera (OF – PHI) | 7 | 8 | -1 |
| Drew Pomeranz (SP – BOS) | 7 | 7 | – |
| Gregory Polanco (OF – PIT) | 7 | 9 | -2 |
| Jonathan Schoop (2B – BAL) | 7 | 7 | – |
| Kyle Schwarber (OF – CHC) | 7 | 6 | +1 |
| Marwin Gonzalez (3B – HOU) | 7 | 7 | – |
| A.J. Ramos (RP – NYM) | 7 | 4 | +3 |
| Eduardo Nunez (3B – BOS) | 6 | 4 | +2 |
| Alex Bregman (3B – HOU) | 6 | 6 | – |
| Clayton Kershaw (SP – LAD) | 6 | 10 | -4 |
| Jacob Faria (SP – TB) | 6 | 6 | – |
| Brett Gardner (OF – NYY) | 6 | 4 | +2 |
| Jackie Bradley (OF – BOS) | 6 | 6 | – |
| Jonathan Lucroy (C – COL) | 6 | 5 | +1 |
| Ervin Santana (SP – MIN) | 5 | 9 | -4 |
| Gio Gonzalez (SP – WAS) | 5 | 3 | +2 |
| Jon Gray (SP – COL) | 5 | 5 | – |
| Nomar Mazara (OF – TEX) | 5 | 6 | -1 |
| Sean Manaea (SP – OAK) | 5 | 5 | – |
| David Price (SP – BOS) | 5 | 20 | -15 |
| Brandon Kintzler (RP – WAS) | 5 | 8 | -3 |
| Maikel Franco (3B – PHI) | 5 | 5 | – |
| J.T. Realmuto (C – MIA) | 5 | 4 | +1 |
| Evan Gattis (C – HOU) | 5 | 5 | – |
| Nick Castellanos (3B – DET) | 5 | 4 | +1 |
| Domingo Santana OF – MIL) | 5 | 5 | – |
| Mark Trumbo (OF – BAL) | 5 | 19 | -14 |
| Kenta Maeda (SP – LAD) | 4 | 4 | – |
| Yonder Alonso (1B – OAK) | 4 | 6 | -2 |
| Brandon Belt (1B – SF) | 4 | 5 | -1 |
| Ender Inciarte (OF – ATL) | 4 | 4 | – |
| Jake Odorizzi (SP – TB) | 4 | 4 | – |
| Jedd Gyorko (3B – STL) | 4 | 4 | – |
| Michael Wacha (SP – STL) | 4 | 4 | – |
| Josh Bell (1B – PIT) | 4 | 4 | – |
| Matt Adams (1B – ATL) | 4 | 4 | – |
| Fernando Rodney (RP – ARI) | 4 | 4 | – |
| Jameson Taillon (SP – PIT) | 4 | 4 | – |
| Sean Doolittle (RP – WAS) | 4 | 4 | – |
| Wilson Ramos (C – TB) | 3 | 6 | -3 |
| Carlos Correa (SS – HOU) | 3 | 3 | – |
| Eugenio Suarez (3B – CIN) | 3 | 3 | – |
| Dustin Pedroia (2B – BOS) | 3 | 5 | -2 |
| Tanner Roark (SP – WAS) | 3 | 3 | – |
| Hunter Pence (OF – SF) | 3 | 3 | – |
| Mark Melancon (RP – SF) | 3 | 1 | +2 |
| Bud Norris (RP – LAA) | 3 | 3 | – |
| Ryon Healy (3B – OAK) | 3 | 3 | – |
| Josh Reddick (OF – HOU) | 3 | 3 | – |
| Gerardo Parra (OF – COL) | 3 | 2 | +1 |
| Yasiel Puig (OF – LAD) | 3 | 3 | – |
| Lance Lynn (SP – STL) | 3 | 3 | – |
| Jason Kipnis (2B – CLE) | 3 | 5 | -2 |
| Mark Reynolds (1B – COL) | 3 | 3 | – |
| Addison Russell (SS – CHC) | 3 | 3 | – |
| Ben Zobrist (2B – CHC) | 3 | 2 | +1 |
| Ian Happ (2B – CHC) | 3 | 3 | – |
| Trevor Rosenthal (RP – STL) | 3 | 0 | +3 |
| Alex Claudio (RP – TEX) | 3 | 3 | – |
| Marcus Semien (SS – OAK) | 3 | 2 | +1 |
| Logan Morrison (1B – TB) | 3 | 3 | – |
| Didi Gregorius (SS – NYY) | 3 | 1 | +2 |
| Aaron Altherr (OF – PHI) | 3 | 3 | – |
| Kevin Gausman (SP – BAL) | 3 | 2 | +1 |
| Steven Matz (SP – NYM) | 2 | 5 | -3 |
| Mallex Smith (OF – TB) | 2 | 3 | -1 |
| Scott Schebler (OF – CIN) | 2 | 2 | – |
| Jose Peraza (2B – CIN) | 2 | 3 | -1 |
| Albert Pujols (1B – LAA) | 2 | 3 | -1 |
| Dylan Bundy (SP – BAL) | 2 | 4 | -2 |
| Tommy Pham (STL – OF) | 2 | 2 | – |
| Marco Estrada (SP – TOR) | 2 | 4 | -2 |
| Andrew Miller (RP – CLE) | 2 | 4 | -2 |
| Stephen Piscotty (OF – STL) | 2 | 2 | – |
| Bradley Zimmer (OF – CLE) | 2 | 1 | +1 |
| Justin Bour (1B – MIA) | 2 | 5 | -3 |
| David Peralta (OF – ARI) | 2 | 2 | – |
| Eduardo Rodriguez (SP – BOS) | 2 | 5 | -3 |
| Rafael Devers (3B – BOS) | 2 | 1 | +1 |
| Brian McCann (C – HOU) | 2 | 2 | – |
| Alex Cobb (SP – TB) | 2 | 1 | +1 |
| Taijuan Walker (SP – SEA) | 2 | 2 | – |
| Ivan Nova (SP – PIT) | 2 | 1 | +1 |
| Yulieski Gurriel (3B – HOU) | 2 | 2 | – |
| Hector Neris (RP – PHI) | 2 | 1 | +1 |
| Shin-Soo Choo (OF – TEX) | 2 | 1 | +1 |
| Lucas Duda (1B – TB) | 2 | 2 | – |
| Yadier Molina (C – STL) | 2 | 1 | +1 |
| Steven Souza (OF – TB) | 2 | 2 | – |
| Ian Kennedy (SP – KC) | 2 | 1 | +1 |
| Whit Merrifield (2B – KC) | 2 | 1 | +1 |
| Welington Castillo (C – BAL) | 1 | 1 | – |
| Noah Syndergaard (SP – NYM) | 1 | 1 | – |
| Manuel Margot (OF – SD) | 1 | 0 | +1 |
| John Lackey (SP – CHC) | 1 | 1 | – |
| Justin Wilson (RP – CHC) | 1 | 3 | -2 |
| Jose Reyes (SS – NYM) | 1 | 1 | – |
| Troy Tulowitzki (SS – TOR) | 1 | 1 | – |
| Avisail Garcia (OF – CWS) | 1 | 2 | -1 |
| Jerad Eickhoff (SP – PHI) | 1 | 1 | – |
| Yoan Moncada (2B – CWS) | 1 | 1 | – |
| Josh Harrison (3B – PIT) | 1 | 1 | – |
| Mike Leake (SP – STL) | 1 | 1 | – |
| Ryan Madson (RP – WAS) | 1 | 2 | -1 |
| Cesar Hernandez (2B – PHI) | 1 | 1 | – |
| Ketel Marte (SS – ARI) | 1 | 0 | +1 |
| Carlos Beltran (OF – HOU) | 1 | 1 | – |
| Victor Martinez (DH – DET) | 1 | 1 | – |
| Zack Cozart (SS – CIN) | 1 | 2 | -1 |
| Yasmany Tomas (OF – ARI) | 1 | 1 | – |
| Orlando Arcia (SS – MIL) | 1 | 1 | – |
| Dexter Fowler (OF – STL) | 1 | 2 | -1 |
| Matt Wieters (C – WAS) | 1 | 1 | – |
| Joey Gallo (3B – TEX) | 1 | 1 | – |
| Nick Williams (OF – PHI) | 1 | 1 | – |
| Starlin Castro (2B – NYY) | 1 | 2 | -1 |
| Nick Pivetta (SP – PHI) | 1 | 1 | – |
| Amed Rosario (SS – NYM) | 1 | 1 | – |
| Brian Goodwin (OF – WAS) | 1 | 0 | +1 |
| Luke Weaver (SP – STL) | 1 | 1 | – |
| Brandon Crawford (SS – SF) | 1 | 1 | – |
| Joc Pederson (OF – LAD) | 1 | 1 | – |
| Lewis Brinson (OF – MIL) | 1 | 0 | +1 |
| Brandon Phillips (2B – ATL) | 1 | 1 | – |
| Kevin Pillar (OF – TOR) | 1 | 1 | – |
| Arodys Vizcaino (RP – ATL) | 1 | 0 | +1 |
| Melky Cabrera (OF – KC) | 1 | 1 | – |
| Kole Calhoun (OF – LAA) | 1 | 2 | -1 |
| Max Kepler (OF – MIN) | 1 | 1 | – |
| Sam Dyson (RP – SF) | 1 | 1 | – |
| Seung-Hwan Oh (RP – STL) | 1 | 3 | -2 |
| Santiago Casilla (RP – OAK) | 1 | 1 | – |
| Hunter Renfroe (OF – SD) | 1 | 1 | – |
| Jim Johnson (RP – ATL) | 1 | 2 | -1 |
| Javier Baez (2B – CHC) | 1 | 1 | – |
| Jason Vargas (SP – KC) | 1 | 1 | – |
| Tim Anderson (SS -CWS) | 1 | 1 | – |
| J.A. Happ (SP – TOR) | 1 | 1 | – |
| Matt Moore (SP – SF) | 1 | 1 | – |
| Trey Mancini (OF – BAL) | 1 | 1 | – |
| Vincent Velasquez (SP – PHI) | 1 | 1 | – |
| Blake Treinen (RP – OAK) | 1 | 0 | +1 |
| Mike Napoli (1B – TEX) | 1 | 1 | – |
| Tommy Joseph (1B – PHI) | 1 | 1 | – |
| Matt Holliday (1B – NYY) | 1 | 3 | -2 |
| Brad Miller (SS – TB) | 1 | 1 | – |
| Mike Zunino (C – SEA) | 1 | 1 | – |
| Luis Castillo (SP – CIN) | 1 | 1 | – |
| Jarrod Dyson (OF – KC) | 1 | 1 | – |
| Matt Davidson (3B – CWS) | 1 | 1 | – |
| Chris Taylor (2B – LAD) | 1 | 1 | – |
| Jaime Garcia (SP – NYY) | 1 | 0 | +1 |
| Russell Martin (C – TOR) | 1 | 1 | – |
| Clint Frazier (OF – NYY) | 1 | 1 | – |
| Mike Clevinger (SP – CLE) | 1 | 1 | – |
| Rajai Davis (OF – OAK) | 1 | 1 | – |
| Mitch Haniger (OF – SEA) | 1 | 5 | -4 |
| Jeurys Familia (RP- NYM) | 1 | 1 | – |
| Hernan Perez (3B – MIL) | 1 | 1 | – |
| Keone Kela (RP – TEX) | 1 | 1 | – |
| Tyler Clippard (RP – CWS) | 1 | 1 | – |
The Trade Deadline Movers
In a bizarre twist, A.J. Ramos is one of your biggest trade deadline winners. A near-certainty to be dealt, there were only one or two contenders who could possibly have moved Ramos into a closer’s role. Enter the Mets, a distinct non-contender, who acquired Ramos mainly to have a firm bullpen piece set for next year while simultaneously creating a market for Addison Reed. Weird. Anyway, Reed has since been traded to the Red Sox, so Ramos inherits the closer’s role for now. There’s a lot of talk of Jeurys Familia coming back this season, and he very well may. But, that’s far from certain, and Familia hasn’t been a particularly reliable closer for two seasons. Even if Familia comes back, there’s no reason to throw him into the fire. Best guess is that Ramos remains the Mets closer for the rest of the season, and so gets a bump in value.
And just when we were getting ready to drop Jonathan Lucroy, in comes one of the only trades that could have possibly salvaged some value at this point. Lucroy, who has had one of the most unexpectedly awful seasons in recent memory, goes to the Rockies and the thin air of Coors Field. Prior to the trade, Lucroy’s value had spiraled further downward, but now, it gets an immediate (small) bump. Look, Lucroy has a .635 OPS and a 22.3% hard contact rate, which would be a bad season for Kurt Suzuki. But Coors Field cures a lot of ills, and it’s likely that Lucroy should, at the very least, perform like a top-12 catcher again.
While the Yu Darvish trade sent shockwaves up and down the real baseball world, the fantasy impact is relatively minimal. Darvish gets a bump, of course. After all, he moves from a mediocre team in the American League and a hitter-friendly venue to an elite team in the National League and a pitcher-friendly venue. But, his last pitch-tipping blowout aside, Darvish was already an elite starter, and he doesn’t suddenly move to the Max Scherzer realm with this trade. But a nice bump? I’m all for that.
Other trade deadline movers include Zach Britton, who stays put in Baltimore and looks to have regained his form. With the uncertainty gone, he vaults in value. And Brandon Kintzler moves from being the closer in Minnesota to . . . something in the Washington bullpen. Kintzler loses value, but he doesn’t plummet just yet, because we don’t know where he will slot into the pecking order with the Nationals. If I were a gambling man, I’d bet that Kintzler finds himself as the closer. Yes, Sean Doolittle has done an admirable job, but allowing Dusty Baker to deploy Ryan Madson and Doolittle as he sees fit in the middle innings will probably benefit the Nationals more. So, if you own Kintzler, hold tight for now.
The Injury Movers
George Springer and his obscure “quad tightness” take a minor dip with his stint on the disabled list. The injury sounds extremely minor – he almost played Friday before the team put him on the disabled list, the team isn’t even calling it a strain, and it should likely be a minimum stay. But when you have an 83-game lead in your division (or something) like the Astros have, what reason is there to rush Springer back? That possibility – that the Astros will choose to be extra cautious with Springer in light of their division lead – makes me slightly nervous, but not enough to discount him significantly if you own him.
Stephen Strasburg is in a similar situation to Springer – a vague injury that is supposedly minor but he’s on a team with a huge division lead – so I’m also cautious about him. But as we discussed last week, the trade chart came out on the day after Strasburg was injured, and we knew almost nothing about the injury. Now that word is out that Strasburg should be back sometime soon, his value rebounds significantly, though still far below his pre-injury value. There’s still some uncertainty there.
Some other pitchers also make significant moves in value with injury developments. As with Strasburg, Clayton Kershaw’s injury news broke on the day before the trade chart came out last week, and we were left without a firm timeline. Now we have one, and it’s not good. At four-to-six weeks, it’s unclear how many starts we’ll get from Kershaw, although two or three seems like a fairly safe prediction. If you’ve been playing fantasy long enough, you know that a point or two in ERA can come down to one run allowed over the course of a full season, and so those few starts from Kershaw retain some value. But it’s just less than I anticipated last week.
David Price also hits the disabled list with soreness in his elbow, and all we’ve got going for us is that Dave Dombrowski said he expects to see Price pitch again this season. Well, that’s swell. Price has been dealing with some off-the-field controversy with Dennis Eckersley, and it’s entirely plausible that, although Price’s elbow could use a breather, this DL stint was much more of a “let’s get this guy away from the field to avoid some distractions so our team can start playing better again.” We simply don’t know. If I’m looking at Price, I’d value him as if he’ll pitch most of September, and only trade for him if I need a Hail Mary. But, regardless, he’s obviously dropped in value.
Lance McCullers also mercifully hits the disabled list with a back injury, but not before he did some major damage. His ERA on June 24th was 2.53. His ERA now, just five starts later, is 3.92. He struck out just 15 batters in his last 18 2/3 innings. Against his fastball in these last five starts, batters are hitting over .500 with over a 1.200 OPS. His location was a whole lot of middle-middle. Given Dallas Keuchel’s and Colin McHugh’s returns, there’s no reason for the Astros to rush McCullers back. If I were an owner, I wouldn’t expect too much for the rest of this season.
Finally, Robbie Ray takes a dip in value, although he may not miss much time despite getting hit in the head with a line drive and needing to be carted off. His dip isn’t precipitous – he could be totally fine going forward after a seven-day stint on the concussion DL. But concussions always present unknown equations and Ray’s luck had started to revert to the mean anyway. I wouldn’t be scared, but I wouldn’t pay what I would’ve last week.
Some other injury movers include Matt Kemp (hamstring), Mark Trumbo (back), Ian Desmond (reaggravation of a calf strain), Justin Bour (oblique), Mitch Haniger (broken face – ok, that sounds mean, but seriously, he fractured bones in his face – what else do you want me to say?), Avisail Garcia (thumb), Zack Cozart (quad), Starlin Castro (hamstring), and Dexter Fowler (wrist). Time’s getting short, guys. We can’t wait on them forever.
The Performance Movers
Miguel Cabrera is a good example of the fact that sometimes the actual numbers count. Other than a higher than normal, but not obscene, strikeout rate, nothing supports Cabrera’s sub-par season. He has a career-high hard contact percentage of 46.1%. He has a career-high line drive percentage of 26%. And yet he’s batting .257 with 13 home runs and a .761 OPS. All the metrics say he should be having a fairly typical Miguel Cabrera season, if not better. But the fact is that no one reading this is going to value Cabrera at his pre-season value, and that’s totally fair. He’s still worth quite a bit, but he drops some.
Xander Bogaerts has played nearly four full seasons, and I still have no idea what kind of player he is. Does he hit for power? Is he a speed threat? Is he a batting average guy? This year, the answer to all those questions is “not really.” Over the last two months, Bogaerts is batting just .228 with four home runs and one steal, along with a 22% strikeout rate. He’s been dropped down in the Red Sox lineup, one that is struggling in any event. I’m hopeful that Bogaerts will deliver more like the 2016 version of himself the rest of the way, but he looks far from it at the moment.
Eric Thames since May 1st: .218 batting average, 13 home runs, .771 OPS. Jose Bautista since June 1st: .186 batting average with six home runs and a .617 OPS. Both of these guys have been living off of one good month. It’s time to reassess.
If we changed Jimmy Nelson‘s name to Felix Hernandez or something, he’d probably be a lot higher on the trade chart. But, if you own Nelson and you’ve tried to deal him, chances are you can’t get close to a full return. Nelson has been a surprise stud this season, with a 3.38 ERA that’s entirely supported by his FIP and xFIP. He has a 10.01 K/9 rate and just a 5.9% walk rate. This is all legitimate. Nelson has altered his delivery and exercise routine and has developed far more control than he’s ever had before. Don’t be afraid of buying.
Finally, I’d be remiss if I failed to mention Gio Gonzalez, who nearly threw a no-hitter and who has been pretty solid the entire season. Prior to the great outing on Monday night against the Marlins, Gonzalez had a 2.81 ERA. That was backed by a 4.10 FIP, a 4.27 xFIP, and his highest walk percentage since 2011. As you can see, his value still doesn’t come close to his surface numbers, and I’m far from buying in fully. Still, he takes a bit of a jump, as his numbers at least support that much.
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Dan Harris is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Dan, check out his archive or follow him on Twitter at @danharris80.
