Welcome to another edition of two-start pitcher rankings, everyone. With the trade deadline officially behind us, we’ve now got a short window for pitching rotations to stabilize before September’s expanded rosters wreak yet more havoc on probable pitcher forecasts.
Of course, we still have the 10-day DL, paternity leave, six-man rotations, and the other usual craziness to deal with in the meantime, so it’s always best to make sure your pitchers are still set to pitch before weekly or daily lineups lock. And if you’re deeply perplexed, or just need some friendly advice, you can always give me a shout on Twitter.
It’s a pretty poor week for two-start pitchers, so you might be better off going with a good one-start option instead, depending on who is available. On to the rankings.
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Too Big To Fail
1. Max Scherzer (8/7 vs. MIA, 8/12 vs. SF)
Scherzer is the one sure-fire elite pitcher scheduled to take the hill twice this week, but the one problem is that he left his last start after just one inning because of a neck issue. Scherzer says he’ll make his scheduled start on Monday, but fantasy owners would be wise to double check after he throws a bullpen session on Saturday.
2. Zack Godley (8/8 vs. LAD, 8/13 vs. CHC)
It might surprise you to see Godley in the “too big to fail” category, especially with a couple seemingly tough matchups on tap, but he’s earned it. Godley’s holy combination of strikeouts and ground balls is a proven recipe for success, and it’s resulted in his 2.86 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. He’s been unlucky in the wins department, but there’s no reason to expect that to continue while pitching for a Diamondbacks team that can score runs with the best of them. Oh, and the Cubs are actually a below-average offense against right-handers.
The Next Best Thing
3. Gio Gonzalez (8/8 vs. MIA, 8/13 vs. SF)
Gio’s top-10 fantasy season is bound to tail off a bit at some point, but he kept the good times rolling last week and now gets another two-start week that includes a juicy matchup against the Giants. He’s reportedly heading to paternity leave, though, so his owners will have to hope he’s back in time to start on Tuesday if he’s going to fit two starts in.
4. Jake Arrieta (8/7 @SF, 8/13 @ARI)
Arrieta kept his streak of excellent performances going last week, and now has a 2.08 ERA and 0.82 WHIP since the start of July. His strikeout rate has been ominously dropping, as I pointed out in this space last week, but he is coming off an impressive eight-strikeout performance against the always-dangerous Diamondbacks. A rematch against Arizona at Chase Field will be even more challenging, but Arrieta looks like he could be up to the task. Even if he’s not, at least he also gets a much more friendly matchup with the Giants.
5. Dallas Keuchel (8/8 @CHW, 8/13 @TEX)
Keuchel was having a Cy Young-caliber season before a nagging neck injury put him on the shelf, but he’s given up 13 hits, five walks, and six runs in eight innings since returning from the DL. Some regression was inevitable anyway — his ERA remains almost a run lower than his xFIP — but Keuchel should still be a valuable fantasy commodity once he rounds into form. Perhaps he’ll do just that this week with matchups against a White Sox team that just traded one of its most productive hitters (Melky Cabrera) and a Rangers lineup that struggles against lefties.
6. Michael Wacha (8/8 @KC, 8/13 vs. ATL)
Wacha has had a solid-if-unspectacular bounce-back season after a disastrous 2016, and he’s been particularly effective of late, putting up a 1.90 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, and 9.9 K/9 in seven starts since June 26. He’s not quite that good, but his year-long strikeout rate is the highest it has been since his rookie year, and his peripherals back up his overall performance to date. With two favorable matchups on the docket, Wacha is a strong option this week.
Decent Options
7. Jhoulys Chacin (8/7 @CIN, 8/12 @LAD)
Chacin has been pitching great for two months (he has a 2.71 ERA and 1.16 WHIP since May 28), and he might be one tier higher if his matchups weren’t so tough. The Reds and Dodgers are both top-10 offenses against right-handed pitching, and both starts are also away from Petco Park, where Chacin has been much more effective.
8. Jason Vargas (8/7 vs. STL, 8/12 @CHW)
The wheels haven’t completely fallen off yet for Vargas, who has bounced back from a couple awful starts to post a workmanlike 3.38 ERA and 1.31 WHIP over his last three turns. His season almost certainly peaked a month ago, and more regression is likely coming, but it’s still hard for many fantasy owners to sit a two-start pitcher with a 3.10 ERA and 1.23 WHIP on the year, especially given the lack of alternatives this week.
9. Ervin Santana (8/7 vs. MIL, 8/12 @DET)
Santana is essentially a Vargas clone; a career 4.04 ERA pitcher (Vargas is at 4.08) with a mediocre strikeout rate who completely dominated in the season’s first couple months, but has come crashing back to earth of late. Like Vargas, Santana’s numbers should continue to trend in the wrong direction, but the matchups aren’t bad and you may not have any better options if you need a two-start pitcher.
10. Matt Garza (8/8 @MIN, 8/13 vs. CIN)
Garza’s 3.68 ERA may be relatively sustainable. After all, he finished with an ERA between 3.32 and 3.95 for eight consecutive seasons between 2007 and 2014. On the other hand, the last two seasons were quite a bit worse than that, and his 6.14 K/9 rate is nowhere near what it was during his best seasons. The strongest argument for streaming Garza is that he’s been pitching very well lately — he’s given up a total of just four earned runs over 22 innings in his last four starts.
11. J.A. Happ (8/8 vs. NYY, 8/13 vs. PIT)
Happ’s results have taken a major dip from his stunning 20-win season in 2016, but his 3.97 xFIP actually suggests he’s pitched marginally better this year. His strikeout rate has certainly trended upward, but Happ is still just a streamer. The Yankees have struggled against lefties this year, so the matchups aren’t too bad.
If You’re Desperate
12. Trevor Cahill (8/8 vs. STL, 8/13 @CHW)
Cahill has an exciting skill set, but he’s been struggling mightily of late (6.38 ERA over his last five starts). Being traded away from Petco Park and to the American League doesn’t help, either. Still, Cahill has an impressive 9.95 K/9 rate alongside a high ground ball rate, which is a very promising combination going forward (see Zack Godley). It’s very tough to trust Cahill while he’s getting hit all over the ballpark, but I still prefer him to pitchers who have had a few good starts but are nowhere near his ability level.
13. Mike Clevinger (8/8 vs. COL, 8/13 @TB)
Clevinger is another pitcher who clearly has talent (9.82 K/9), but he’s been rocked in two straight starts. I suggested in a previous column that trouble could be around the corner for Clevinger because of his high walk and strand rates, and that’s what’s happened. He still has lots of potential, but I’d try to err on the side of caution with two tough matchups coming up.
14. Brent Suter (8/7 @MIN, 8/12 vs. CIN)
Suter had been pitching quite well since joining the Brewers’ rotation until a rough start against St. Louis on August 2 (5 ER in 5 1/3 IP). It’s fair to question how much upside he has, but the matchups are pretty decent — neither the Twins nor Reds hit lefties particularly well.
15. J.C. Ramirez (8/7 vs. BAL, 8/12 @SEA)
Nothing in Ramirez’s career numbers suggest he can be a long-term fantasy asset, but he does have a 1.93 ERA over his last five starts. Of course, he also has almost as many walks (17) as strikeouts (20) during that stretch, so things could go south for him at any moment. Baltimore and Seattle are both relatively dangerous against right-handers, so I’d tread lightly here.
16. Parker Bridwell (8/8 vs. BAL, 8/13 @SEA)
See Ramirez, J.C. Bridwell is another Angels righty who has somehow managed to string together solid starts since early July, despite a thoroughly unremarkable resume and low strikeout rate. He’s got the same tough matchups, too.
17. Chad Kuhl (8/8 vs. DET, 8/13 @TOR)
Kuhl hasn’t managed to match his minor league success in the Majors thus far, which isn’t too surprising for a pitcher who is walking almost four batters per innings with a middling strikeout rate. Kuhl does have a 2.70 ERA and 1.23 WHIP since July 1, but like Ramirez and Bridwell, he’s far from a dependable option. He does have two fairly favorable matchups, at least.
18. Dylan Bundy (8/7 @LAA, 8/13 @OAK)
Bundy has yet to deliver on his prospect pedigree, and this year even his strikeout rate has tailed off to just 6.86 per nine innings. His matchups this week are fairly enticing, but he’s been crushed in three of his last five starts, so I’d avoid him if at all possible.
19. Jordan Zimmermann (8/7 @PIT, 8/12 vs. MIN)
Zimmerman’s career nosedive has continued this season, and his ERA now stands at an unsightly 5.35. We’re long past the point of hoping for a career resurgence, but he is coming off a nice start against the Yankees and has two favorable matchups ahead. Still, he’s best left on waiver wires in the vast majority of leagues.
Just Say No
20. Trevor Williams (8/7 vs. DET, 8/12 @TOR)
21. Vance Worley (8/8 @WAS, 8/13 vs. COL)
22. Adalberto Mejia (8/8 vs. MIL, 8/13 @DET)
23. Ariel Miranda (8/8 @OAK, 8/13 vs. LAA)
24. Luis Perdomo (8/8 @CIN, 8/13 @LAD)
25. Matthew Boyd (8/8 @PIT, 8/13 vs. MIN)
26. Matt Moore (8/7 vs. CHC, 8/13 @WAS)
27. Chris O’Grady (8/7 @WAS, 8/12 vs. COL)
28. Derek Holland (8/8 vs. HOU, 8/13 vs. KC)
29. Austin Pruitt (8/8 vs. BOS, 8/13 vs. CLE)
30. Robert Stephenson (8/7 vs. SD, 8/12 @MIL)
31. Sal Romano (8/8 vs. SD, 8/13 @MIL)
32. Chris Flexen (8/8 vs. TEX, 8/13 @PHI)
If you can’t even make it onto the desperation play list this week, then you’re probably not very good…Williams isn’t awful, but if you use him you’re hoping for a middling start at best…Worley could eventually return to fantasy relevance in a Tanner Roark-sort-of-way, but I’d need to see more than one good start.
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Andrew Seifter is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @andrew_seifter.
