The MLB non-waiver trade deadline has come and gone, and there were some big moves (more on them to come in the player notes below). Of course, that doesn’t mean there won’t be more trades to come. The waiver trade period is trickier as teams partake in gamesmanship to block fellow contenders from trading for players who clubs attempt to slip through waivers and dangle to everyone. The passing of the non-waiver trade deadline isn’t just important for the players who were dealt, it’s also important for prospects who were blocked by veterans who were being showcased in advance of the deadline. Gamers can expect to see more prospects called up, and the floodgates will open when rosters expand in September. For now, let’s just look at the week ahead.
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Notable Matchups
Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers (3), vs Cubs (3)
The Diamondbacks play all six of their games next week at home, and they’re a potent offense in the desert. Arizona ranks fourth in AVG (.277) at home, per FanGraphs, and they back the average with a .353 OBP and .492 SLG (second best at home this year).
Braves vs. Phillies (2), @ Cardinals (3)
The Braves play only five games next week, and Carlos Martinez and Michael Wacha represents two less than ideal matchups for them.
Orioles @ Angels (3), @ Athletics (4)
The Orioles are on the other end of the spectrum from the Braves. While none of their games are at home, the O’s hitters get a bump in value by playing every day next week for a full complement of seven games. The pitching matchups project to be favorable, too.
Red Sox @ Rays (2), @ Yankees (3)
Like the Braves, Boston plays only five games next week. That makes the fringe offensive starters benchable in leagues with weekly lineup changes.
Cubs @ Giants (3), @ Diamondbacks (3)
The Cubs first five games in a six-game week next week are against left-handed probable pitchers. In related news, Kyle Schwarber is a total non-option in fantasy leagues next week.
Reds vs. Padres (4), @ Brewers (3)
Cincinnati’s hitters not only enjoy a full complement of games next week with one every day, they also have their value bolstered by four games at home and three at hitter-friendly Miller Park.
Rockies @ Indians (2), @ Marlins (3)
It’s a double whammy for Colorado’s hitters next week. They only play five games, and making matters worse is that all five games are on the road.
Tigers @ Pirates (2), vs. Pirates (2), vs. Twins (3)
The Tigers play seven games next week, and while they’ve stepped up their work on the road, it’s still advantageous for their bats to play five of the seven games at home. Detroit’s hitting .274/.347/.459 at Comerica Park this year.
Royals vs. Cardinals (2), @ Cardinals (2), @ White Sox (3)
The Royals play seven games next week and have some super soft pitching matchups as well some that are less scary than they might appear when looking at only ERA.
Marlins @ Nationals (4), vs. Rockies (3)
The Marlins play seven games next week, and their outlook for hitting is up in the air a bit. ESPN’s probable pitchers shows them lined up to face Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg, but if they’re not healthy enough to the toe the rubber, Miami goes from facing two elite starters to facing fill-ins who are likely not even big-league caliber.
Brewers @ Twins (2), vs. Twins (2), vs. Reds (3)
There’s a lot to like about Milwaukee’s bats next week. They play seven games. They get the added benefit of having a designated hitter for the first two games of the week. They conclude the week with five games at home. And, oh yeah, they face two of the worst pitching teams in MLB with the Twins ranking 26th in ERA and the Reds easily bringing up the rear with the highest ERA in MLB.
Rangers @ Mets (2), vs. Astros (3)
Yuck. The Rangers only play five games next week, and it gets worse. They’re on the road for two, and they’re awful on the road ranking dead last in AVG (.217) with only a .288 OBP and .400 SLG backing it. It’s not just any road venue for the first two games of next week, either. Citi Field is pitcher friendly, and Texas will be without the services of the designated hitter in the NL.
Nationals vs. Marlins (4), vs. Giants (3)
Washington’s hitters are going to eat next week. They play seven games, and all of their games are at home. The Nationals are hitting .263/.328/.463 in Washington. The pitching matchups are dreamy, too. Take a look at this dumpster fire of probable pitchers they’re projected to face.
Hitter Notes
Derek Fisher (HOU)
The Astros cleared the way for full-time at-bats for Fisher by dealing Nori Aoki to the Blue Jays. Fisher’s tools have never been in question, and he’s hit at every level of the minors, but he still made improvements at Triple-A cutting his strikeout rate down to a career-low 19.3% without sacrificing a patient approach (9.1% BB%). More exciting to fantasy gamers, he smacked 21 homers and stole 16 bases with a .318/.384/583 slash. The youngster is very fast, but he wasn’t efficient as a base stealer getting caught 10 times in 26 attempts. He’s already been caught twice in just four attempts in the Majors, but that’s about the only blemish in his limited work in The Show. He’s a must-own in 12-team mixers and larger leagues as a box-score stuffer in a loaded offense.
Amed Rosario (NYM)
Mets fans have been clamoring for them to call up Rosario since early in the year, and he’s finally arrived. He hit .328/.367/.466 at the Triple-A level with seven homers and 19 stolen bases. It’s worth noting Las Vegas (his Triple-A affiliate) plays in an extremely hitter-friendly ballpark. The 21-year-old wasn’t bad on the road, but as you can see here, he was much better at home with an .899 OPS in Las Vegas compared to a .773 OPS on the road. The highly touted prospect is keeper and dynasty league gold, but he’s not a must-have option in smaller leagues. He’s worth a look in 12-team mixers or deeper leagues, though.
Alex Avila (CHC)
The analysis will be short and, well, not sweet with Avila. His value was Tonya Harding’d with a deal to the Cubs. He’ll serve as the backup catcher behind Willson Contreras, and there’s no DH spot for him to pick up extra starts in. Furthermore, while he played in 16 games at first base for the Tigers, he’s unlikely to see much action there with Anthony Rizzo calling that position home. He can be dumped in all but the deepest of two-catcher leagues.
Jonathan Lucroy (COL)
Lucroy had a career year in 2016, but the pendulum has completely swung in the other direction with him in the midst of his worst offensive season. If anything is going to jump start his season, it’s going to be playing home games at Coors Field. In fact, despite how bad he’s been to date, he’s worth a look in basically all formats.
Melky Cabrera (KC)
Cabrera returns to Kansas City via a deadline deal. He’s slotted into the top third of the lineup with his new club. His old club’s offense has been bad this year, but his new club’s has been equally bad. It might come as a surprise to people, but Kauffman Stadium is a better offensive environment than Guaranteed Rate Field. All in all, the Melkman’s value remains essentially the same as it was pre-trade.
Pitcher Notes
Yu Darvish (LAD)
Darvish was dealt roughly as close to the deadline as it gets. He moves to the NL, which even with the AL and NL sporting nearly identical slash lines and strikeout rates, is likely a positive. For a strikeout artist like Darvish, facing the pitcher will be a gimme punch out. He’ll be backed by one of the best offenses in baseball, which bodes well for his wins projection the rest of the year, and he’ll upgrade home parks going from hitter-friendly Globe Life Park to pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium.
Sonny Gray (NYY)
Like Darvish, Gray also upgraded the offense backing him and is in a more favorable position to earn wins — as volatile as they are. Unlike Darvish, Gray’s home venue is a downgrade from a ballpark factor’s perspective with Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum suppressing homers and run scoring and Yankee Stadium amplifying both, especially homers. The good news for Gray and gamers who own him is that he does an elite job of inducing grounders with a 56.7% GB% this season, per FanGraphs. Gray also upgrades his defense with FanGraphs’ metrics ranking Oakland dead last in defense and the Yankees 14th, as you can see here. The 27-year-old hurler’s value gets a slight bump upward with his new club.
Brandon Kintzler (WAS)
Washington’s bullpen has been a complete disaster most of the year, and Kintzler was acquired to help further shore things up. He joins recently acquired late-inning relievers Ryan Madson and Sean Doolittle in the pen, and it appears roles haven’t been defined yet. If you’re desperate enough for saves and own Kintzler or he’s available on the wire, you can roster him in the hopes he’s used in save situations. Having said that, he needs saves in order to have value as his ERA and WHIP aren’t elite for a reliever, and his 14.8% K% hurts his value, too.
Lucas Sims (ATL)
Sims made his debut in The Show earlier in the week against the Dodgers. It was a tough introduction to the Majors, but he wasn’t bad allowing three earned runs on six hits and a hit batter with three strikeouts in six innings. Sims was having an excellent year for Triple-A Gwinnett spinning a 3.75 ERA (4.30 FIP and 3.41 xFIP) with a 1.14 WHIP, 7.7% BB%, 28.1% K%, and 12.1% SwStr%, according to FanGraphs. He’s a fly-ball pitcher with only a 34.2% GB% at Triple-A this year, and he’ll give up homers as a result of his batted ball profile. He had a 1.48 HR/9 for Gwinnett. Sims will benefit from calling SunTrust Park home as it suppresses homers in its inaugural season and ranks 21st with a park factor of 0.950 for homers, according to ESPN. I’d advise against using him in homer-friendly parks, but he’s rosterable in 12-team mixers or larger leagues thanks to his strikeout upside.
Shane Greene (DET)
Greene will fill recently-traded reliever Alex Wilson’s closer role for the Tigers, but I still can’t advise rostering him in most leagues. The righty’s 2.59 ERA is less than half of his 2016 ERA of 5.82, but his underlying stats have cratered. He’s not getting hitters to fish out of the strike zone and he’s not inducing many empty swings. He’s riding a .239 BABIP (.327 prior to this season, and .338 as a reliever prior to this year) to his success this year, and nothing about his sub-3 ERA looks sustainable. Of course, limited work as a reliever can help him stave off regression with continued good luck, and saves are saves, so if you’re desperate, you can roster him. However, it’s important to understand he could take a blow torch to your team’s ERA if the other shoe drops.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
