Roster expansion is on the horizon on September 1. That obviously means there will be more players on the active roster who will have a chance to become fantasy relevant, but it also means banged up everyday players on non-contenders and contenders with massive division leads can get some rest. Another wrinkle added to this is that platoon players can be lifted earlier in the game due to deeper benches, and teams can mix and match relievers more frequently as well. The negative that comes from a platoon player being able to be lifted earlier is reduced counting stats upside, but the positive is less exposure to the handedness of pitcher that gives them trouble and hurts their average and OBP. If you’re looking to stream, play daily baseball, or are looking at various free-agent options to patch holes, you’ll have to weigh the importance of counting stats versus AVG or OBP when choosing between available options. Furthermore, speedy one-trick ponies like Terrance Gore become viable streaming options for those chasing steals since the expanded rosters allow managers to more liberally use pinch-runners. Now, let’s move on to a look at the week ahead.
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Notable Matchups
Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers (3), @ Rockies (3)
The Diamondbacks continue to rake in their hitter-friendly home digs with a season slash line of .272/.348/.484 at Chase Field, according to FanGraphs, and while they struggle mightily on the road, Coors Field isn’t just any road venue. The stock is up for Arizona’s bats next week.
Orioles vs. Mariners (3), vs. Blue Jays (4)
In addition to the O’s bats enjoying a full complement of seven games, they get to do so at home for all of their contests next week. Baltimore is hitting .265/.324/.461 at home this year.
Rockies vs. Tigers (3), vs Diamondbacks (3)
The Rockies were on the road for all six of their games, but they return home for all six this week. As an added bonus for those using Colorado’s hitters next week, they’ll kick off the following week with a three-game series at home, making it nine games in a row at home
Tigers @ Rockies (3), vs. Indians (4)
The Tigers lose the DH for three games to start the week, but that negative is offset by the positive of hitting in the thin air in Colorado. They close the week with four games that includes a doubleheader on Friday. A few tough pitching matchups next week are less than ideal, but overall, it’s a favorable week of hitting for Detroit’s bats.
Brewers vs. Cardinals (2), vs. Nationals (4)
The Brewers are home for all six of their games next week, and that means they’ll be treated to these lovely park factors at Miller Park. Gamers who own Eric Thames will be glad to know that five of six games next week project to be against right-handed starting pitchers.
Yankees vs. Indians (3), vs. Red Sox (4)
The Yankees have been much better at home than on the road this year and slashed .261/.340/.473 at Yankee Stadium and they play a full complement of seven games next week all at home. That’s the good news. The bad news is that next week is book ended by games against Corey Kluber and Chris Sale. The good outweighs the bad, but those are two exceptionally difficult matchups.
Rangers @ Astros (3), vs. Angels (3)
It’s more bad news than good news for Rangers hitters. They open next week with three road games, and they’re one of the worst road offenses in baseball bringing up the rear in batting average (.220) while sporting just a .291 OBP and .690 SLG. They are at home for the final three games of the week, but they project to face a pair of lefties in that three-game series (in addition to facing Dallas Keuchel in Houston earlier in the week). Texas has struggled mightily with lefties this year hitting just .240/.317/.397.
Hitter Notes
Byron Buxton (MIN)
Buxton hit just .147/.256/.176 in 78 plate appearances in the month of April. It was a brutal month by all measures, but he’s turned a corner and hit a respectable .260/.314/.413 since with nine homers and 19 stolen bases in 20 attempts. He’s been much better than respectable in the second half, though, hitting .305/.344/.549 with four homers and six stolen bases. His hot hitting coupled with some injuries have prompted a bump up the lineup. He’s hit fifth against righties of late while slotting in the three-hole against southpaws. Once the top prospect in all of baseball, it’s easy to understand how frustration can set in for even the most patient gamers who’ve held out hope for a breakout. The 23-year-old isn’t likely to keep up this pace, but even regression to a .275-.280 average would play quite well with his elite stolen base contributions and decent pop that’s come and gone through his young career. Buxton’s tools and recent production make him ownable universally despite his underwhelming career numbers.
Matt Olson (OAK)
Olson is the at the opposite end of the spectrum of Buxton on the prospect scale. The first baseman/outfielder wasn’t a highly touted prospect, but his power has never been a question. The left-handed slugger swatted 37 homers at the High-A level in 2014 before hitting exactly 17 homers in back-to-back seasons at Double-A (2015) and Triple-A (2016). He opened the year repeating Triple-A after a cup of coffee in the Majors last year and whacked 23 homers in just 343 plate appearances this season. His thump has followed him to The Show with eight homers in 109 plate appearances. He’s a three-true-outcomes slugger with a 11.0% BB%, 31.2% K%, and the previously mentioned eight taters. Even with power up across the game, Olson’s thump can be helpful in deeper leagues. He often sits against lefties, but fantasy gamers would be wise to sit him against southpaws even if he’s in the A’s starting lineup. Olson has a sizable platoon split and is less of a liability to batting average if he’s used only against right-handed starting pitchers. He hit .293/.392/.603 in 232 at-bats against righties at the Triple-A level this year, according to MiLB.com, and he’s hit .269/.367/.551 against them in the Majors this year.
Carlos Correa (HOU)
Correa began a rehab assignment with Triple-A Fresno yesterday, and the shortstop said he’ll need roughly 20 to 30 at-bats on the assignment, according to Jake Kaplan of the Houston Chronicle. He’ll reportedly spend at least a week on the rehab assignment, and that timetable should give him some reps against big-league pitching before the fantasy playoffs start in most head-to-head leagues.
Trea Turner (WAS)
While Correa just started his rehab assignment yesterday, Turner’s been on his at Triple-A Syracuse since Monday. Houston’s shortstop hit the disabled list a few weeks after Turner, so the latter might require more than the 20 to 30 at-bats Correa declared he’d need to shake off the rust. Having said that, an early September return looks likely for Turner. I’m not optimistic about Turner’s teens-homer power returning immediately given the injury that sidelined the 24-year-old, but his base stealing ability can make a huge impact if he’s able to get on base. Turner stole 35 bases in his first 68 games, and he went absolutely nuts in the month of June before fracturing his wrist, swiping 22 bags in 26 attempts in 26 games played.
Pitcher Notes
Clayton Kershaw (LAD)
Following a successful 55-pitch bullpen session, Kershaw will make a rehab start for Triple-A Oklahoma on Saturday. Kershaw’s chomping at the bit to return and believes he was healthy enough to pitch in the big leagues a couple weeks ago, according to this piece from MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick. As long as he doesn’t suffer a setback in the rehab game, it seems probable his next start after that will be for the parent club.
Yu Darvish (LAD)
Darvish is currently on the disabled list with back spasms and missed a start earlier in the week. He’s since thrown a 32-pitch bullpen session in which he worked on some mechanical adjustments with pitching coach Rick Honeycutt, per Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register, and threw another bullpen session Wednesday. He’s projected to return from the disabled list for a start against the Brewers on Sunday. I don’t believe a wait-and-see approach is necessary. Feel free to start him for Sunday’s turn in the rotation.
Alex Wood (LAD)
The Pitcher Notes section could be renamed the Dodgers’ rotation and it would be 50% accurate. Wood is on the disabled list with SC joint inflammation and is expected to receive a cortisone shot. The lefty has been pitching through the issue and, according to Plunkett, he’s expected to miss just one start. Wood is coming off of four straight quality starts, but his strikeout rate has taken a nose dive. Since striking out 10 batters in his final start before the All-Star Break on July 5, he’s bested five strikeouts in just one of seven starts and tallied a 17.1% K% in that time frame, per FanGraphs. The rest and cortisone shot could be just what he needs to return to his pre-All-Star Break dominant form. Even with a reduced strikeout rate he’s been solid racking up a 3.80 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in his seven post-All-Star Break starts. Like his two rotation mates, Wood is safe to start on fantasy teams as soon as he returns from the disabled list.
James Paxton (SEA)
Paxton’s cleared a big hurdle this week in his recovery from a strained left pectoral muscle by starting a throwing program on Wednesday. Bob Dutton of The News Tribune indicates a best-case scenario for the ace lefty would be an early-September return to the rotation.
Matt Belisle (MIN)
Belisle has taken the reigns of the closer gig since Brandon Kintzler was dealt to the Nationals prior to the non-waiver trade deadline. He’s slammed the door shut in four of five save chances after recording 17 holds in a setup role. The 37-year-old’s 4.53 ERA is nothing to write home about, but it’s inflated by a few ugly relief appearances in the first half. Since July 1, he’s been locked in recording a 1.04 ERA (1.98 FIP, 2.48 xFIP, and 2.07 SIERA), 0.63 WHIP, 3.3% BB%, 35.0% K%, and 11.3% SwStr%. He’s widely available despite being the man to own for saves in Minnesota. He should be owned universally.
Dylan Bundy (BAL)
Bundy opened up the year well before hitting the skids in advance of the All-Star Break. The underlying stats didn’t support his hot start entirely, but the way he cratered to end the first half was worse than even the underlying stats suggested. The break and some extra rest between starts has helped Bundy right the ship and pitch well in the second half. The young righty has made a half-dozen second-half starts spanning 38.1 innings in which he’s spun a 3.76 ERA (3.73 FIP, 4.14 xFIP, and 3.69 SIERA), 1.10 WHIP, 5.2% BB%, 26.5% K%, and a gaudy 14.3% SwStr%. He’s punched out 10 batters in two of his last three starts and struck out eight in the other turn in that stretch. Bundy’s locked in, and while his innings are almost certainly going to be managed down the stretch, that could prove beneficial for his numbers since extra rest has unlocked the best Bundy we’ve seen yet in The Show.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
