Welcome to the first of a four-article series where we will also be looking at the running back, wide receiver, and tight end position. But for now, we will be diving right into quarterbacks. Below you will find tables showing the consistency and inconsistency of quarterbacks during the 2016 season. The tables are broken up into four groups: Super Consistency (20+ points), Consistency (15+ points), Inconsistency (<12 points), and Super Inconsistency (<8 points).

It is very easy to get carried away with just looking at a player’s total numbers from the past season, but this analysis breaks it down into game-by-game production, which is crucial in fantasy football because most formats feature head-to-head matchups every week, so consistency proves to be more important than boom or bust production.

The statistics used for this data is based on ESPN’s standard scoring format. Here is a quick overview of the scoring breakdown for QBs:

TD Pass = 4 Points
25 Passing Yards = 1 Point
Interceptions Thrown = -2 Points
TD Rush = 6 Points
10 Rushing Yards = 1 Point

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Super Consistency (20+ points)

Consistency (15+ points)

 
Matt Ryan and Aaron Rodgers proved to be the most consistent QBs of the 2016 season with a consistency rate of 94 and 88 percent respectively. Carson Wentz and Joe Flacco struggled as they sit at the bottom of the list with a consistency rate of under 40 percent. It was somewhat shocking to see players like Philip Rivers, Eli Manning, Matthew Stafford, and Russell Wilson so low on the list. Jameis Winston posted a solid 69 percent consistency rating but his weekly ceiling was limited last season with just four games of 20 or more points.

Top 5 Most Likely to be More Consistent in 2017

ALL ADP INFORMATION PROVIDED BY FANTASY PROS

#1) Carson Wentz (ADP = 19^th QB/140th Overall)
Sitting at the bottom of the 25 QBs researched, how does Wentz not improve his spot in 2017? He actually looked pretty good in his rookie season, but the Eagles lack of playmakers really hurt his production. However, there will be no more excuses with the additions of Alshon Jeffery and Torrey Smith at receiver, as well as LeGarrette Blount to bolster the ground attack.

#2) Russell Wilson (ADP = 6^th QB/55^th Overall)
Wilson battled injury for most of his 2016 campaign and his numbers reflected that. A healthy Russell should bump him back up to the top-10 of this list. Having a healthy C.J. Prosise is another underrated factor that could help his production. The second-year back should be able to create mismatches out of the backfield, something Seattle lacked for most of last season.

#3) Cam Newton (ADP = 7^th QB/71^st Overall)
Cam is another QB who was hampered by injuries last season. His production should rise if he can stay healthy and with the additions of playmakers Christian McCaffery and Curtis Samuel.

#4) Eli Manning (ADP = 17^th QB/120^th Overall)
I have some concerns about how much arm Eli has left, and the conservative approach of head coach Ben McAdoo. Having said that, the Giants have one of the best groups of playmakers in the NFL. They added Brandon Marshall in the offseason, which should take some pressure and double coverage off of star wide receiver, Odell Beckham. Rookie Evan Engram provides a big, athletic target at the tight end position, and Sterling Shepard will make some plays in his second-year (depending on his the extent of his injury).

#5) Andy Dalton (ADP = 18^th QB/132^nd Overall)
The Bengals added some serious speed with their selection of wide receiver John Ross via the NFL Draft, and they also added Joe Mixon who will likely take over as their starting running back at some point during the season. A healthy Tyler Eifert and A.J. Green will play a huge role in Dalton’s production as well. Dalton is best selected as a QB2, but don’t be surprised if he finishes with top-12 production in 2017.

The next two tables we are going to analyze breaks down the inconsistency of QBs in 2016. The first is games with less than 12 Fantasy Points and the second is games with less than eight Fantasy Points. Too many of either of those from your starting QB and you will be crying on your couch wondering what could have been during the fantasy playoffs.

Inconsistency (<12 points)

Super Inconsistency (<8 points)

 
Ryan Tannehill led the way with the worst inconsistency percentage at 23 percent, surprisingly followed by Marcus Mariota, with Eli Manning and Ben Roethlisberger not too far behind. What about Derek Carr? Is he truly a sure-fire QB1? He’s being drafted as a top-10 fantasy QB right across the board this season, but keep in mind that he had fewer than 12 fantasy points in one-third of his games last season.

On the flip side, some pretty spectacular stuff from Aaron Rodgers and Matt Ryan, as they were the only two QBs to record 12 or more fantasy points in every game they played. Speaking of spectacular stuff, how about Tyrod Taylor? He’s being selected somewhere around the 12^th-14^th rounds of most drafts despite having just a 13 percent inconsistency rate. That puts him in elite company with Matt Ryan, Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck, and Tom Brady.

Top 5 Most Likely to be More Inconsistent in 2017

#1) Matt Ryan (ADP = 4^th QB/50^th Overall)
Ryan has many of his offensive pieces returning but his biggest loss will be his offensive coordinator, Kyle Shanahan, who took the head coaching job in San Francisco. Ryan’s production last season was lights out and will be hard to repeat.

#2) Joe Flacco (ADP = 25^th QB/179^th Overall)
Even though the Ravens only got much better on offense, Flacco is too hot and cold. I could see him having a higher ceiling but mix that in with some inconsistent games as well. His overall play has been on the decline for several years.

#3) Blake Bortles (23^rd QB/214^th Overall)
Bortles was already pretty inconsistent when looking at his percentage of games with fewer than 12 points, but he could easily regress in the super inconsistency category of number of games with less than eight points. A couple of his trademark interceptions will likely get him there.

#4) Dak Prescott (9^th QB/78^th Overall)
The second-year signal caller had a phenomenal rookie season, but I am predicting just a bit of a sophomore slump here. He should still have a good season overall but maybe with a few more struggles than last season as the Cowboys did lose a few pieces to their offensive line.

#5) Tyrod Taylor (16^th QB/124^th Overall)
I know, I know…just after I praised the guy for his consistency. His rushing ability makes him one of the more consistent options at the QB position but his passing ability limits his ceiling. If Sammy Watkins can stay healthy there is no reason why he can’t improve on his total numbers from 2016, but he simply isn’t good enough to be among the top QBs in consistency again this season.

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Mike Dente is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @1ststopfantasy.