Ladies and Gentlemen, with the NFL season quickly approaching it’s time to close out our four-part consistency series. The purpose of these articles is to help you find sleepers, good value, potential busts, and most importantly, consistent performers. In case you haven’t noticed, I am a firm believer that the key in fantasy football is consistency. He doesn’t have to be flashy, but give me the guy who puts up 10+ points every week over the guy who is boom or bust. That’s where these charts come in handy. We break down every key player’s game-by-game production and put them into tables. The tables are broken up into four groups: Super Consistency (20+ points), Consistency (12+ points), Inconsistency (<10 points), and Super Inconsistency (<7 points). Without further ado, let’s check out some tight ends…err, that didn’t come out right. Let me try that again, let’s breakdown the 2016 production at the tight end position (much better).

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A Few Quick Notes

• The higher the percentage on the consistency and super-consistency tables, the more consistent the player was in 2016.
• The higher the percentage on the inconsistency and super-inconsistency tables, the more inconsistent the player was in 2016.
• All ADP information was taken from FantasyPros ADP Composite

The statistics used for this data is based on ESPN’s PPR scoring format. Here is a quick overview of the scoring breakdown for RBs:

• Receiving Yard = 0.1 Point
• Receiving TD = 6 Points
• Reception = 1 Point

Super Consistency (20+ points)

 
Consistency (12+ points)

 
There are some very recognizable names sitting pretty near the top of the consistency ranks. Even though he’s as injury prone as they come, Jordan Reed is evidently in the same class as the top-tier TEs when healthy. His 67 percent consistency score is 11 percent greater than Travis Kelce and Greg Olsen, who are the next highest on the list. If you aren’t able to land Jordan Reed or one of the elite TEs then your best bet could be to wait it out as the consistency scores get awfully congested near the middle of the pack, which also seems to be a trend at the position in recent years. Travis Kelce, Jordan Reed, Tyler Eifert, and Rob Gronkowski are all tied for the top spot in the super consistency rankings. All four of those guys provide top-end upside. Unfortunately, three of the four (Reed, Eifert, Gronk) are among the most injury prone at the position, so they certainly carry some risk.

Top 5 Most Likely To Improve Their Consistency Rates in 2017

#1) Hunter Henry (LAC)
It is well known in the football and fantasy community that the TE position is one of the most difficult when it comes down to rookies making an immediate impact. Although, Hunter Henry did just that and with limited playing time in 2016. The 22-year-old led all TEs with eight touchdowns (tied with Cameron Brate) and finished top 20 in fantasy points despite recording just 36 receptions. In addition to that, he also finished second among all tight ends in fantasy points per reception with a score of 3.61 (min. of 25 rec). Only Rob Gronkowski had a better average in that department. Pretty good company, huh? With Antonio Gates not getting any younger at 37 years of age, Henry is expected to move into the starting role. That will result in more targets, receptions, and most importantly more fantasy points for your team. Henry is one of my “must haves” in fantasy this year and he provides outstanding value at his current ADP of TE11 in the eighth round.

• PPR ADP: 11th TE/103rd Overall
• 2016 Consistency Score: 33 %

#2) Austin Hooper (ATL)
The Falcons used a committee approach at the TE position last year which netted a total of 197 fantasy points. While not nearly as impressive as Henry, Hooper is another second-year TE expected to jump into a starting role for his respective team. The Stanford product is a near lock to improve on his consistency score of seven percent as his targets and playing time should increase. Last season he saw fewer than 33 percent of the target share split between five tight ends on the Atlanta roster. I expect that number to nearly double as he establishes himself as their top receiving option out of that group. Consider Hooper a nice TE2 with high upside in a high-powered offensive attack.

• PPR ADP: 17th TE/167th Overall
• 2016 Consistency Score: 7 %

#3) Jack Doyle (IND)
Doyle emerged as a solid fantasy TE last season after playing behind Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen in 2015. With both of those guys gone, Doyle is now not only the starter in Indianapolis, but he is also one of Andrew Luck’s top targets in the passing game. Even though he finished outside of the top 10 in fantasy points, Doyle’s impressive 79 percent catch rate from last season was No. 1 in the NFL at his position (min. 20 rec.). If Luck can stay healthy, expect Doyle to make that jump into the top 10 and to improve on his 25 percent consistency score. Not bad for a guy with a current 10th round ADP.

• PPR ADP: 12th TE/129th Overall
• 2016 Consistency Score: 25 %

#4) Coby Fleener (NO)
One of the most over-hyped fantasy players from last season had to be Coby Fleener. The switch from Indy to New Orleans had fantasy players drooling at the potential and upside of a Brees to Fleener connection. Well, after compiling just 137 fantasy points, it’s safe to say that didn’t come to fruition. However, one year has passed and Fleener has a much better grasp of the offense, something that he admittedly struggled with last offseason, which was a major red flag by the way. I mean come on guys, he was practically telling you not to draft him! Moving along to this year, Fleener still sits atop the depth chart once again, and he has a very low risk ADP of 151 overall. Furthermore, he could see an uptick in targets with Brandin Cooks’ departure to New England. Look, I’m not saying he’s going to win you a championship or even that he will be a TE1, but his consistency rating of 19 percent will rise.

• PPR ADP: 16th TE/159th Overall
• 2016 Consistency Score: 19 %

#5) Martellus Bennett (GB)
Talk about going from one offensive juggernaut to another. After playing just one season in New England, Bennett now finds himself replacing Jared Cook as the primary tight end in Green Bay. Despite playing behind Rob Gronkowski for six games, the 10-year veteran still managed to finish the season as a top 10 fantasy TE. He should see even more targets in the pass-happy Green Bay offense, especially with no one ahead of him on the depth chart. Bennett’s size (6’6″) makes him a dependable and stellar red zone target for Aaron Rodgers. Bennett is a low-end TE1 with easy top-five potential. He did manage to score a respectable consistency rating of 38 percent, but I like him to improve on that number in a better situation heading into 2017.

• PPR ADP: 9th TE/86th Overall
• 2016 Consistency Score: 38 %

Inconsistency (<10 points)

 
Super Inconsistency (<7 points)

 
As we look a little closer at some of the more inconsistent TEs of 2016, you’ll notice a lot of names that you would expect to see. Jared Cook and Coby Fleener are undoubtedly the two most disappointing names on the list. Both guys have flashed athletic ability but have proven to be nothing more than a tease to their fantasy owners. On the flip side, Austin Hooper and Ryan Griffin found themselves in backup roles or in TE committee’s so you can somewhat excuse their poor inconsistency scores. One player who deserves some credit is Eric Ebron. Aside from his one goose egg, he scored 7+ points in every other game and was the only TE to have a super inconsistency score of less than 10 percent.

Top 5 Most Likely to Move up the Inconsistency Charts in 2017

#1) Vance McDonald (SF)
After being actively shopped back in June by the 49ers, it’s quite clear that Vance McDonald is not part of their long-term plans. I fully expect the 49ers to start rookie George Kittle right off the bat, who is a very nice late-round pick in Dynasty leagues by the way. Kittle has outperformed the veteran throughout training camp and the preseason. Even though McDonald has big-play ability, his hands are suspect and he is far too inconsistent. He was already in the top 10 of our inconsistency table for 2016, and I envision him rising up even higher on that list in a backup role this season.

• PPR ADP: 24th TE/231st Overall
• 2016 Inconsistency Score: 64 %

#2) Antonio Gates (LAC)
After turning 37 this past summer you have to start to wonder how much Gates has left in the gas tank. He did finish the year as a top 12 fantasy TE and with a pretty good 43 percent inconsistency score. However, the future Hall of Famer has not played a full season since 2014. To make matters worse, Gates’ reception and yardage totals declined for a fourth consecutive season. Lastly, his yards per reception average of 10.3 in 2016 was the lowest of his 15-year career. Much respect to Mr. Gates, but the time has officially come to pass the torch.

• PPR ADP: 22nd TE/195th Overall
• 2016 Inconsistency Score: 43 %

#3) Kyle Rudolph (MIN)
Absolutely nothing against Kyle Rudolph here, and I am in no way calling him a bust candidate. The Ohio native capped off the most impressive season of his career as he finished with 83 receptions for 840 yards and seven touchdowns. That was good enough for second best in terms of fantasy production. He also led all TEs with 132 targets, but are those numbers sustainable? In his previous five seasons, Rudolph totaled 4.59 targets per game. Average that out over a 16-game span and his yearly average was 73 targets per season going into 2016. You could make the argument that he has evolved into a better player, but dating back to 2012 only four TEs have reached 132 targets in a single season. When considering that information it is only logical to suggest that Rudolph’s targets and production drops.

• PPR ADP: 8th TE/83rd Overall
• 2016 Inconsistency Score: 25 %

#4) Julius Thomas (MIA)
Thomas has seen his numbers dip significantly since posting back-to-back seasons of 12 TDs in 2013 and 2014. Injuries have not helped matters either. Thomas has missed 11 games in the past two years and has never played a full 16-game season in his six-year career. Additionally, the Dolphins aren’t exactly the ideal landing spot for a struggling TE trying to bounce back. Miami has not had a TE rack up more than 35 catches in a season since 2014. Thomas is nothing more than a TE2 with a low ceiling in this offense.

• PPR ADP: 20th TE/178th Overall
• 2016 Inconsistency Score: 44 %

#5) Zach Miller (CHI)
Despite missing six games last season, Miller posted career highs in receptions and receiving yards. While he could definitely build on those numbers, I have my doubts that he can remain as consistent. His inconsistency score of 50 percent was solid enough to be tied with Rob Gronkowski. That is quite impressive for a guy who has never eclipsed 50 receptions, 500 receiving yards, or six touchdowns in a season. Add in the fact that the Bears are projected to have one of the worst offenses in the league and you’ll see that Miller is likely to move up the inconsistency ranks in 2017.

• PPR ADP: 31st TE/299th Overall
• 2016 Inconsistency Score: 50 %

Fantasy Football Consistency Risers/Fallers: Quarterback

Fantasy Football Consistency Risers/Fallers: Running Back

Fantasy Football Consistency Risers/Fallers: Wide Receiver

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Mike Dente is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @1ststopfantasy.