Welcome to part three of our four part series, where we examine the consistency and inconsistency at every significant fantasy football position. So far we have covered quarterbacks and running backs, and today we will be dissecting the wide receiver position. There is a ton of value to be had in the middle rounds and there are some nice sleepers later in drafts as the position is quite deep this year. Hopefully, with this data you will be able to identify sleepers, good value picks, and perhaps some players who are being overvalued as well. Below you will find tables showing the consistency and inconsistency at the wide receiver position in the 2016 season. The tables are broken up into four groups: Super Consistency (20+ points), Consistency (12+ points), Inconsistency (<10 points), and Super Inconsistency (<7 points). It is very easy to get carried away with just looking at a player’s total numbers from the past season, but this analysis breaks it down into game-by-game production, which is crucial in Fantasy Football. In head-to-head leagues, consistency proves to be more important than boom or bust production.

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A Few Things to Consider

• The higher the percentage on the consistency and super-consistency tables, the more consistent the player was in 2016.
• The higher the percentage on the inconsistency and super-inconsistency tables, the more inconsistent the player was in 2016.
• For best results, read this article on a computer rather than a mobile device so you can get a more clear view of the tables.

The statistics used for this data is based on ESPN’s PPR scoring format. Here is a quick overview of the scoring breakdown for WRs:

• Receiving Yard = 0.1 Point
• Receiving TD = 6 Points
• Reception = 1 Point

Super Consistency (20+ points)

Consistency (12+ points)

 
Jordy Nelson sits atop the list as the most consistent fantasy football wide receiver last season with a score of 81 percent, followed by some pretty good company in Antonio Brown, Julian Edelman, A.J. Green, and Odell Beckham. A very impressive feat for someone coming off of an ACL tear in 2015. A.J. Green, Dez Bryant, and Alshon Jeffery are a few players who battled injuries for parts of the season, yet also showed that they should still be considered among the most consistent fantasy receivers in the game when healthy. Another interesting observation is that Julio Jones finished outside of the top 12 in consistency last season. However, he did top the super consistency chart with a stellar score of 50 percent.

More Interesting Notes

• Golden Tate finished 39^th in consistency with just a 44 percent score. Shockingly, Tate’s teammate Marvin Jones finished one spot ahead of him.
• Marqise Lee had a better consistency score than Allen Robinson, DeAndre Hopkins, Terrelle Pryor, and Emmanuel Sanders. He was also tied in that department with the likes of Amari Cooper, Doug Baldwin, and Brandin Cooks.
• Edelman’s top three finish in consistency proves his value as a PPR stud. Having said that, he dropped all of the way out of the top 30 in super consistency, which shows that his game-by-game upside is limited.

Top 5 Most Likely To Improve Their Consistency Rates in 2017

***ALL ADP INFORMATION PROVIDED BY FANTASY PROS***

#1) Brandon Marshall (NYG)
Marshall is coming off his worst statistical season since his rookie year in 2006, but things are looking up for the six time Pro Bowler. For starters, he has upgraded from a combination of Ryan Fitzpatrick, Bryce Petty, and Geno Smith to Eli Manning at quarterback. Furthermore, he will benefit from playing on the opposite side of Odell Beckham. Beckham will be the primary focus of the defense and will draw the opposition’s top cover corner every game, which will result in Marshall facing the softest coverage of his career. The 33-year-old has proven to be an elite wide receiver in the NFL with six seasons of 100+ receptions, and eight seasons of 1,000+ yards receiving. If you are worried about his age slowing him down just remember that B-Marsh is only two years removed from one of the best campaigns of his career.

• PPR ADP: 33rd WR/69th Overall
• 2016 Consistency Score: 27 %

#2) Golden Tate (DET)
The departure of Anquan Boldin in Detroit frees up 95 targets and eight touchdowns from a year ago. If you haven’t heard by now, they do have a player by the name of Kenny Golladay who appears to be the best thing since sliced bread. Heck, we might as well start calling him GOD-aday. Call him what you want, but there’s a good chance Golladay eats into those targets and touchdowns, in fact he could swallow them whole if he lives up to the hype. However, I see that hurting Marvin Jones‘ value, not Tate’s. Since joining the Lions in 2014, the Notre Dame product has recorded three straight seasons of 90 or more receptions and is a clear favorite target of Matthew Stafford. Despite averaging fewer than 6.5 fantasy points per game through the first five weeks of 2016, Tate still managed to finish the year as a top 20 fantasy receiver. If he can come out of the gate quicker this season he should not only improve his consistency rating, but he could also finish top 15 in fantasy production.

• PPR ADP: 23rd WR/47th Overall
• 2016 Consistency Score: 44 %

#3) DeAndre Hopkins (HOU)
The loss of Brock Osweiler in Houston is a win for DeAndre Hopkins and all of his fantasy owners. Even though the QB situation is still not ideal, there is some promise with Deshaun Watson on the roster. Hopkins will be leaned on heavily and targeted often, especially with Will Fuller banged up heading into the season. Houston has very little options in the passing game aside from DeAndre, so he should improve on his numbers based on competition, opportunity, and QB play. The 25-year-old is one of the most talented receivers in the game and has proven he can put up monster numbers with inadequate quarterback play in the past. In 2015, he racked up 111 receptions for 1,521 yards, and 11 touchdowns. His list of quarterbacks that year? Brian Hoyer, Ryan Mallett, T.J. Yates, and Brandon Weeden. Nuff’ said.

• PPR ADP: 13th WR/26th Overall
• 2016 Consistency Score: 50 %

#4) Doug Baldwin (SEA)
Even though he was the WR8 last season, Baldwin ranked around the middle of the pack in terms of consistency. The main reason why had to be the health of Russell Wilson. In fact, it’s very impressive that Baldwin was able to achieve such a strong campaign after seeing the Seattle offense struggle for large parts of the season. If Wilson can stay healthy I really don’t see any reason why Baldwin shouldn’t improve on his 56 percent consistency rating. As the Hawks continue to rely heavily on their passing game, look for Baldwin to put up top-10 wide receiver production for a third straight season.

• PPR ADP: 11th WR/24th Overall
• 2016 Consistency Score: 56 %

#5) Corey Coleman (CLE)
Of the 50 players I included in my research, Coleman put up the worst consistency score out of all of them. A hand injury limited his production, but he did show flashes at times. Particularly in Week 2 against the Ravens where he caught five passes for 104 yards and two touchdowns. With Terrelle Pryor out of the picture, the second-year receiver will have a shot to beat out Kenny Britt as the primary target of Brock Osweiler, Cody Kessler, or Deshone Kizer. The other thing working in his favor is the potential for garbage time points. The Browns will likely be playing from behind often, so Coleman should be able to pad his stats against soft coverage. He is worth a late-round pick and could perform as a WR3 for your fantasy team.

• PPR ADP: 43rd WR/106th Overall
• 2016 Consistency Score: 20 %

The next two tables are going to analyze the inconsistency of WRs in 2016.

Inconsistency (<10 points)

Super Inconsistency (<7 points)

 
Never trust a Cleveland Brown they say…they were right. Despite being a first-round draft pick in 2015, Coleman struggled to step in as a consistent No. 1 receiver for the Browns. Terrelle Pryor took over that role while the first-round pick battled through injuries and sloppy quarterback play. As discussed earlier, Coleman has the opportunity to beat out Kenny Britt as Cleveland’s No.1 this year and has a low ADP (Average Draft Position), so I’m not too worried about his terrible inconsistency score of 80 percent. One thing that does worry me though, is the inconsistency score of 44 percent for Allen Robinson. He is labeled by many as a prime bounce-back candidate this season, but can we really expect him to do so with the exact same quarterback situation as last season? That is something to consider before you pull the trigger on him in the third or fourth round of your draft.

Top 5 Most Likely to Move up the Inconsistency Charts in 2017

***ALL ADP INFORMATION PROVIDED BY FANTASY PROS***

#1) Sterling Shepard (NYG)
The off-season acquisitions of Brandon Marshall and Evan Engram drop Shepard to the third or fourth option in the passing game. On top of that, the second-year pro is working through an ankle injury that could linger. I like Shepard from a talent standpoint, and he will have some productive games, but you won’t be able to rely on him as a fantasy starter. Expect his 105 targets from last year to drop, which should result in an increase to his inconsistency score.

• PPR ADP: 52nd WR/141st Overall
• 2016 Inconsistency Score: 44 %

#2) Rishard Matthews (TEN)
Matthews put up career-highs across the board in 2016 and finished the year as the WR22 in fantasy points, but he finds himself in a similar position as Shepard. The Titans added Eric Decker in free agency, and spent an early first-round pick on Corey Davis. Add in Delanie Walker and a very strong run game and you can see why his targets and opportunity will decrease. Matthews is still a reliable target in the passing game, but he will struggle with consistency.

• PPR ADP: 51st WR/129th Overall
• 2016 Inconsistency Score: 31 %

#3) Donte Moncrief (IND)
The biggest thing working against Moncrief right now is the health and uncertainty of Andrew Luck. If Luck is forced to miss time, Moncrief’s value and production will drop significantly. Even if Luck doesn’t miss any games it will still be very difficult for Moncrief to sustain an inconsistency score of 22 percent, which ranked right up there with guys like Antonio Brown and A.J. Green.

• PPR ADP: 34th WR/77th Overall
• 2016 Inconsistency Score: 22 %

#4) Marqise Lee (JAX)
Don’t get me wrong, I like Marqise Lee as a late-round sleeper. However, I don’t view him as a consistent option with Blake Bortles at QB and with Allen Robinson being the primary target ahead of him. Lee’s inconsistency score of 44 percent was the same or better than some big names such as: Brandon Marshall, DeSean Jackson, Stefon Diggs, Terrelle Pryor, and DeAndre Hopkins. He simply doesn’t belong in that company. To make matters worse for his 2017 outlook, the Jags will likely turn more to the run game after using the fourth-overall pick on LSU standout Leonard Fournette.

• PPR ADP: 68th WR/193rd Overall
• 2016 Inconsistency Score: 44 %

#5) Kenny Stills (MIA)
Stills has established himself as one of the best deep threats in the game. He showcased his big-play ability last year as he averaged 17.3 yards per reception, which ranked third in the NFL for players with at least 30 receptions. However, his 42 catches in 16 games is a concerning stat when looking at his value and consistency outlook for this year. Jay Cutler replacing Ryan Tannehill may work in his favor, but I have Stills moving up the inconsistency ranks, at least until he becomes a more reliable target instead of just a big-play threat.

• PPR ADP: 69th WR/177th Overall
• 2016 Inconsistency Score: 38 %

Hot & Cold Trends

• Julian Edelman failed to score 10 or more fantasy points in four consecutive weeks (Week’s 3-6). He put up 10+ points in the other 12 games, including 10 straight games to close out the season.
• Odell Beckham recorded four games of 20+ points in a five-week span (Weeks 9, 10, 12, 13).
• Golden Tate closed out the season with six straight games of 10+ points.
• Mike Wallace finished the year with three consecutive games of eight or fewer fantasy points.
• Kenny Stills strung together four straight games of 12+ points to end his 2016 campaign.
• After a strong start to the season, Jamison Crowder failed to record more than six fantasy points in any of his final four games.
• Cole Beasley started the 2016 season with six consecutive games of 10+ points but failed to score more than nine points in his final five games.
• A.J. Green scored 30+ points in three of his 10 games played.
• Cameron Meredith was a top-three fantasy WR over the final four weeks of the season, recording 81 points in that span.
• Ted Ginn struggled out of the gate as he failed to score more than 10 points in any of his first five games.

Fantasy Football Consistency Risers/Fallers: Quarterbacks

Fantasy Football Consistency Risers/Fallers: Running Backs

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Mike Dente is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @1ststopfantasy.