Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Doug Martin has been one of the more frustrating players to own in fantasy leagues over the course of his five-year career. It’s hard to believe that his breakout rookie season was five seasons ago, but it was. Martin’s rookie season was one for the ages — 1,454 yards and 11 rushing touchdowns to go along with 49 receptions, 472 yards, and a receiving touchdown.

Unfortunately, Martin fell victim to frequent injuries like so many other promising running backs and missed the majority of his sophomore season with a torn labrum. Another injury-plagued season followed in 2014, and Martin had now been limited to only 17 games since his rookie season in which he ran for just 950 yards and three touchdowns. His stock was at an all-time low heading into 2015, and for a good reason — frequently injured running backs aren’t a hot commodity in fantasy football.

And that’s when he took off again. We saw shades of the “Rookie Hamster” as he produced 1,402 rushing yards, 33 receptions, and 271 receiving yards. He only reached the end zone seven times, but fantasy owners weren’t complaining. Martin was back in fantasy owners good graces, and being drafted within the first three rounds in 2016.

He promptly responded with his worst season-to-date as he generated a pathetic 2.9 yards per carry and only 421 rushing yards in half of a season. Rumors abounded that even Trent Richardson thought that was a pretty bad season. Oh yeah, and he was also suspended for the last game of the season for PEDs which obviously didn’t work at all.

Like seriously Doug Martin, get your money back for whatever you took. Maybe file a lawsuit while you’re at it. Those PEDs sucked.

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2017 Outlook

OK, so everybody hates Doug Martin again. Not only was he horrific last season, but he’s also suspended for the first three games of this season for the garbage PEDs he took.

His ADP sits at 30th among RBs in standard leagues (79th overall), and his FantasyPros consensus ranking is 33rd among RBs in standard leagues. His stock is undoubtedly at its lowest since his re-emergence in 2015.

So what exactly went wrong in 2016? Martin suffered a torn hamstring in Week 2 and just never fully recovered. The Buccaneers as a team were just fine running the football when Martin wasn’t on the field; career back-up Jacquizz Rodgers was able to run for more than 500 yards for the first time in his career while averaging 4.3 yards per carry. There has been talk this offseason that Martin isn’t even guaranteed his starting spot back once he returns from suspension which has sunk his value even further.

I suspect that to be just talk though — “motivation speak” if you will. When healthy, Doug Martin is the best running back on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. If I were forced to spend a top-50 pick or so on Martin, then I would be concerned about the frequent injuries and his inability to play through them, but you’ll be seeing Martin fall to the eighth or ninth round depending on the size of your league, maybe even farther.

I’m not sure how many players you can draft that late that are still in their athletic primes (Martin is 28 years old) and have previously been top-five at their position on two different occasions, but I suspect that number to be very minimal. There’s also the reports that Martin is in the best shape of his career and has ‘flashed the most’ during camp workouts while receiving the “bulk of the first-team reps.” Martin has shown a real dedication to improving himself this offseason, attending rehab to address his off-field issues and changing his diet which included cutting out Chinese food.

Anybody who cuts out P.F. Chang’s deserves to be drafted at least a round or two higher than their ADP. That’s just a rule I have.

Most fantasy owners will view the Bucs’ offseason moves as a shift to more of a pass-heavy attack — they drafted Alabama tight end O.J. Howard in the first round and signed veteran WR DeSean Jackson. However, the improvements made in the passing game will only open up scoring opportunities for the running game. Mike Evans will continue to be a target monster for Jameis Winston, but a regression from his 12 touchdowns last season should be expected thereby opening up scoring opportunities for other Bucs’ skill players.

On the offensive line, the Bucs will be getting J.R Sweezy back from back surgery although they never really had him in the first place. Sweezy signed a five-year, $32 million deal with the Buccaneers last offseason, but has yet to appear in a game for them. Before signing with the Bucs, Sweezy had been the starting right guard for some pretty good Seahawks’ O-lines from 2013-15.

It’s also important to note head coach Dirk Koetter’s pedigree with feature backs. He was the Jaguars’ offensive coordinator during the Maurice Jones-Drew days when MJD was a perennial first-round selection. During his three year stint as OC with the Falcons, he only had 30-year-old running backs to work with (broken down Michael Turner and broken down Steven Jackson), but somehow still managed to get Turner, who was running like a 12-second forty at this point, 10 touchdowns and 800 yards in 2012.

Koetter then left for Tampa to be the OC in 2015 where he led Martin’s resurgence before becoming head coach last year. There will be some concern that Koetter’s history with Jacquizz Rodgers (he played for Koetter during his three seasons in Atlanta) may sway Koetter to keep Rodgers installed as the feature back even when Martin returns.

However, Koetter has never shown the willingness to use Rodgers as a feature back unless forced to as he was at the end of last season. Martin was given every opportunity to get his starting job back following his hamstring tear last season but simply wasn’t healthy enough to do so.

The fact that Martin wasn’t cut this offseason indicates that the Bucs aren’t quite ready to throw in the towel on their two-time Pro Bowl running back. With all the positive reports surrounding Martin this offseason, I’m boldly predicting a top-five running back finish (on a points per game basis) in standard leagues. He’s well worth taking a chance on in the seventh to ninth rounds of fantasy drafts this season.

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Joey Korman is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joey, check out his archive and follow him @leaveit2divac.