Over the last week and a half, we’ve heard nothing but positive things coming out of Washington’s wide receiving corps. Josh Doctson is back from his injury and going up over defenders to high-point passes, Terrelle Pryor is snagging one-handed touchdowns, and Jamison Crowder is able to play both out of the slot and on the perimeter. It’s gotten to the point where we can only have so many nice things come out of an offense, so how should we value these receivers and are they worth their current price in drafts?

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History of the Offense

In order to understand where you’re going, you have to know where you’ve been, right? While we don’t have any data on Pryor and how he’ll be targeted, but we do have 32 games over the last two years to go through. When projecting an NFL offense, you have to understand that they don’t fundamentally change year-over-year, especially when there is no coaching or quarterback change. With Kirk Cousins still under center and Jay Gruden still overseeing everything, it’s unlikely we see a drastic shift in philosophy or play-calling, especially when Cousins threw for nearly 5,000 yards last year. Most don’t know, but Cousins has actually averaged more yards per attempt than every quarterback (min. 600 attempts) except Ben Roethlisberger and Matt Ryan over the last three years combined.

Going back over the last three years since Cousins started playing, the Redskins offense has been methodical. Below is a chart showing how the wide receiver position was targeted in each year, as well as how many yards and touchdowns they produced.

 
As you can see, the pass attempts have increased, and may continue to do so in 2017, though I’d cap that number as somewhere in the range of 620 attempts. The target share for the wide receivers has consistently been in the 56-58 percent range, which is actually in the bottom-half of the league. A large reason for that is because of how heavily the tight ends are targeted, regardless of who is out there, as Jordan Reed has missed 11 games over the last three years. Below is the same chart, but for the other skill position players.

 
As you can see, the running back position is the one who’s suffered the most as time’s gone on, while the tight ends have remained stagnant in terms of target share. Looking at numbers as often as I do, it’s unlikely that a quarterback starts targeting a position significantly more without a coaching change, which again, hasn’t happened.

Don’t Underestimate DeSean Jackson

There are those arguing that the combination of Pryor, Crowder, and Doctson is better than Cousins has worked with in the past, but I’d be careful with that assessment. Pierre Garcon has been a solid possession receiver in this league for a long time, accumulating six seasons with at least 67 receptions, including 151 over the last two seasons. But the biggest loss here is DeSean Jackson, who has quietly been one of the best wide receivers in the league over the last nine years. There isn’t a quarterback who’s played better without him, as evidenced by the chart below.

 
In short, you should keep your expectations realistic when saying that Cousins has better weapons than in years past. They may be bigger bodies to help him in the redzone, but again, you’re counting on two wide receivers who have still yet to score five touchdowns at wide receiver in their NFL career. Pryor did only see 13 redzone targets last year, which ranked 32nd among wide receivers, while scoring four touchdowns, which ranked 36th.

So, how do we figure out which wide receiver will see the most targets? Over the last three years, Cousins has never targeted a wide receiver more than 7.1 times per game, which would amount to 114 targets over a 16-game period. Let’s assume that Pryor gets 115 targets, just for the point of our exercise. Over the last two seasons, Crowder has gone from 4.9 targets per game in 2015, up to 6.2 targets per game in 2016. The Redskins have said that Crowder can also play on the perimeter, which would give him a bigger role, but they run a lot of three-wide receiver sets, so it doesn’t give him much of a bump. Still, let’s say that he winds up around the 6.5 target per game range, which would put him right around 105 targets. We’re now at 220 targets with just those two wide receivers. Looking at the wide receivers not named Jackson, Garcon, or Crowder over last three years, they’ve accumulated 219 targets, or 73 per season. We’re now at almost 300 targets and we haven’t even gotten to Doctson. Are you starting to see why it’s difficult to project Pryor for more than 115-120 targets?

Pryor

So where should we feel comfortable projecting these guys? Starting with Pryor, who should see the most targets, I’m locking him in for 110-120 targets. I’ve mentioned how difficult it would be to project him for more, but I’m also trying to be optimistic in the fact that his ceiling may be higher considering his elite athleticism. The reason I have trouble envisioning Pryor finishing as a top-12 guy is because there were just one wide receiver to do so with less than 121 targets in 2016 and that was Brandin Cooks, who did so with 117 targets. Both Tyrell Williams and Rishard Matthews made it into the top-15 with fewer than 120 targets, but they also had abnormally high touchdown rates.

Cousins hasn’t thrown more than 15 touchdowns to wide receivers in a single year, and while I do think he eclipses that number in 2017, he won’t shatter it. Doctson was brought in to be the redzone guy last year, while Crowder showed the ability to score in 2016, leading the team with seven touchdowns. My projection for Pryor right now sits at 118 targets, 68 receptions, 1,013 yards, and six touchdowns.

Crowder

As for Crowder, the 105-target mark seems logical as he should lead this team in receptions with a high catch rate. He’s not going to score seven touchdowns again, but the fact that he did it shows you his ceiling. He’s also the wide receiver who should have the most chemistry with Cousins, having been on the team with him for the last two years. His range of projections go from 100-110 targets, with upside for more should there be an injury. My projection for Crowder right now sits at 106 targets, 70 receptions, 819 yards, and five touchdowns.

Doctson

It seems that Doctson is the wildcard of the bunch, but don’t forget that Pryor is on a one-year deal with the Redskins. They need to legitimately find out what Doctson is and what he isn’t in 2017. If he can step up and be the No. 1 they thought they drafted, Pryor becomes a luxury rather than a necessity. We must temper expectations with Doctson, though, as it’s essentially his rookie season. Because of that, his range of outcomes is a lot wider than Pryor and Crowder. His range of projections goes from 70-90 targets, though I believe he can be towards the higher part of that range if he stays healthy, and considering how Cousins has spread the ball around in years past. Don’t believe me, just look at the chart below.

Important Takeaways

And again, if you’re going to try and sell me on Pryor’s athletic ability, I can do the same thing with Doctson who has been playing wide receiver much longer than Pryor. When the Redskins drafted Doctson, head coach Jay Gruden compared him to A.J. Green. Doctson had freak-like production over his final two years in college totaling 144 receptions for 2,345 yards and 25 touchdowns in just 23 games. If you’ve read this whole article, you know that I’m not anti-Pryor, but rather concerned that his ceiling just isn’t high enough to be considered a lock for top-15 production, provided there are no injuries, of course. He’s a solid low-end WR2 who is playing with a good quarterback who spreads the ball around.

Meanwhile, Crowder is being drafted as the WR29, which is too pricey considering his projected touchdown regression. He should fall into the WR35 range for you to consider him. Doctson is the best value of the bunch, as you have to spend nothing in order to acquire him as the 155th player off the board in early drafts. Who knows, maybe he and Pryor may turn out to be 1A and 1B in this offense, while Crowder plays a similar role to the one he did last year. There’s a lot to see here in this offense, but Doctson may be the one we’re discussing in a different light next year.

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Mike Tagliere is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeTagliereNFL.