Every year you head to your fantasy draft excited as ever, ready to destroy the competition with all of the research and mock drafts you’ve done over the last six months. Ok, maybe that’s a bit much. Not many people are like me doing mock drafts in March, but hey, we all can’t be degenerates, right?
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But in all seriousness, how many of you see other league members check out mentally after the first 12 rounds? They just start throwing out names, asking if they’ve been taken yet. This is one mistake that you’ll never make again. Why? Because I’m here to explain how important those late-round picks are. Did you know that Davante Adams, Ty Montgomery, Jordan Howard, Robert Kelley, Tyrell Williams, Kyle Rudolph, Matt Ryan, and Tyreek Hill were all guys with average draft positions outside the top 150 overall, with most of them being undrafted?
This happens every single year. For my home league, I buy a draft board every year that I’ll look at once the season is over to see the players that were taken in the 14th-16th rounds. I’m reminded every year that this is where drafts are won and lost. Today, we’re going to take a look at which players you should be targeting with your last pick or two of the draft. I’ve arranged it by leagues size, with players to think about as your last pick. For our criteria, it’s got to be a player taken outside of the top 150 overall.
10-Team Leagues
Coby Fleener (TE – NO) Current ADP: 160
Raise your hand if you liked Fleener as a potential top-three tight end last year. If you didn’t raise your hand, you’re not likely to be taking him with your final pick, but the potential is there. Since taking over as the head coach in 2008, the Saints have targeted their tight ends 1,311 times, or 146 times per year. To give you an idea as to how much that is, there were just eight teams who hit that mark in 2016. Targets are everything to tight ends, and you can make the case that they’ll uptick Fleener’s 82 targets from last year considering Brandin Cooks is gone. Say all you want about his talent level, but he’s finished as a top-six tight end before. In year-two with Drew Brees, Fleener may surprise you. It also may surprise you that despite his struggles last year, he was still a top-12 tight end.
Jonathan Williams (RB – BUF) Current ADP: 162
When playing behind one of the best offensive lines in football, anything is possible for a running back. Just ask Darren McFadden. In reality, LeSean McCoy is now 29 years old and has dealt with some minor injuries over the last two years that have caused him to miss five full games and large portions of others. The Bills offensive line created 2.58 yards before contact last year, whereas the next closest team was the Falcons line that created 2.27 yards before contact. That’s a rather large gap. Should something happen to McCoy, Williams could be a league-winner. Who knows, the Bills have been trading/giving away a lot of talent, so maybe McCoy is a potential trade candidate to a playoff contender.
Austin Hooper (TE – ATL) Current ADP: 165
The second tight end listed here, and that’s because most owners in 10-team leagues don’t draft two tight ends. Even if so, Hooper is going outside the top 16 tight ends. The Falcons decided not to re-up Jacob Tamme, which is notable because it shows their confidence in the second-year player. With Devonta Freeman, Julio Jones, and Tyler Gabriel split out all over the field, Hooper will see plenty of linebackers in coverage throughout the year. He was a big play waiting to happen last year, averaging 10.0 yards per target, which was second among tight ends who saw at least 25 targets. The only guy in front of him? Rob Gronkowski. The guys right behind him? Vernon Davis, Jimmy Graham, Travis Kelce, and Martellus Bennett.
Kevin White (WR – CHI) Current ADP: 169
Say what you want about White being a bust, but it’s impossible to know if that’s the case considering he’s played in just four NFL games. Were those games great, no, but remember that he was essentially a rookie last year. This is the same coaching staff and regime in place as last year, the ones that gave him 32 targets in just four games. The Bears ultimately need to see what they have in White and should pepper him with targets once again. It’s not often you get a wide receiver with your last pick who should see a minimum of 100 targets.
12-Team Leagues
Josh Doctson (WR – WAS) Current ADP: 172
Similar to White, Doctson is someone who’s been forgotten about because he sat on the bench his rookie season with an injury. Guys, first-round draft picks don’t just fade away without being given every opportunity to succeed. Head coach Jay Gruden compared Doctson’s skill-set to A.J. Green‘s after they drafted him. Sure, they went out and acquired Terrelle Pryor, but they needed to after losing both Pierre Garcon and DeSean Jackson this offseason. One is still learning the position (Pryor), while the other (Doctson) was considered a future No. 1 wide receiver just one year ago. There are other options in this offense (Pryor, Jamison Crowder, Jordan Reed) who can prevent him from reaching the 100-plus targets that White will get, but if he does, the sky is the limit.
Kenny Golladay (WR – DET) Current ADP: 189
We all know that Calvin Johnson leaving the Lions left a void, one that some think Golladay can help fill. He started out his career by scoring two touchdowns on just four targets in the preseason opener, leading some to nickname him “Babytron” (I’m looking at you, JJ). While Marvin Jones is someone who I’d much rather take a flier on, he also costs more than the rookie Golladay. He’s 6-4, 218 pounds, and he runs a 4.5 40-yard dash. He’ll likely need to put on some weight if he wants to bully defenders on the goal-line, but his path to the starting lineup is one of the easiest in the league, as he only needs to pass T.J. Jones to make it onto the field.
Robby Anderson (WR – NYJ) Current ADP: 197
I know, I know, the Jets… But do you remember who Terrelle Pryor had throwing to him last year? As a matter of fact, do you remember who Anderson himself had throwing to him? Pryor finished as a top-24 wide receiver, while Anderson posted 9.9 or more PPR points in five of the final 10 games. With Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker leaving town, it created a void of roughly 15 targets per game to go around. Quincy Enunwa was the next man on the totem pole for those targets, but he suffered a neck injury during training camp and is out for the year. Anderson is now the No. 1 target on a team that’ll be throwing quite often. While he won’t crack the top 20 wide receivers or anything, he is going to see somewhere in the neighborhood of 110-120 targets, which makes for a great last-round pick.
DeAndre Washington (RB – OAK) Current ADP: 200
This is one of the average draft positions that I just don’t understand. Marshawn Lynch is 31 years old, has been out of the game for a year and a half, wasn’t rehabbing during that time, and didn’t miss the game of football (he said it, not me). The Raiders have already said they want to limit Lynch to around the 200-carry mark, something similar to Latavius Murray‘s total from last year. If that’s the case, Washington will have a role regardless. He’s also familiar with this offense in his second year and is coming off a rookie campaign in which he averaged 5.4 yards per carry. Should Lynch miss time, Washington should be the next man up on the depth chart. Considering all the factors with Lynch, would it surprise you to see him miss a few games? Considering he’s free, Washington is an excellent last-round target.
Kenny Stills (WR – MIA) Current ADP: 203
Did you know that Stills had just as many games with 11.8 or more PPR points as Mike Evans in 2016? Yes, I’m serious. In fact, there were just eight wide receivers with more of those performances. The Dolphins ponied up a lot of money (4-year, $32 million) in order to keep him around this offseason, which should tell you he’ll be a big part of their plans. Add a quarterback like Jay Cutler who can sling it downfield to the guy who can run a 4.3 40-yard dash (Stills), and you should have some massive weeks. He’s not going to see 120-plus targets or anything, but he doesn’t have to. Consider him a poor man’s DeSean Jackson.
14-Team Leagues
Vance McDonald (TE – SF) Current ADP: 222
If you’ve been paying attention this offseason, you’ve likely heard “someone has to get the targets in San Francisco,” which has led most to believe Pierre Garcon will be targeted relentlessly. While I think he’s a lock for 120 targets, there is still a lot to go around. There were rumblings this offseason that Carlos Hyde and McDonald would be cut, but we know how false the Hyde rumors were, and it’s likely the McDonald rumors were as well. He was a big play waiting to happen last year, as he ranked third among tight ends in yards per reception, behind only Rob Gronkowski and Ladarius Green. There are plenty of targets to go around in the 49ers offense.
Laquon Treadwell (WR – MIN) Current ADP: 244
We’ve come to the golden age of impatience with fantasy players, as Treadwell was someone who was looked at as a sure-fire No. 1 wide receiver of an NFL offense. He didn’t see much of the field in year one (just 80 snaps on the season), leading some to call him a bust. That may be the case, but when you’re taking your final pick in a 14-team league, there are not many players of his caliber on the board. Even Cordarrelle Patterson is someone who saw 70 targets in this offense as the No. 4 target in the passing game behind Stefon Diggs, Kyle Rudolph, and Adam Thielen. Even if Treadwell steals just those targets, he’ll have an impact in fantasy leagues, but there’s potential for more.
Devin Funchess (WR – CAR) Current ADP: 247
If you’ve read anything I’ve written this offseason, you’ve likely heard me say something about Funchess. While I’m not saying he’s the most gifted player on the football field, he’s delivered when he’s had opportunities. Standing 6-4, he’s scored nine touchdowns on 121 career targets from Cam Newton, while racking up 15.6 yards per reception. The Panthers offense has been built to dink-and-dunk this year, but Funchess has proven to be someone who can go downfield, despite his speed limitations. This preseason, he’s played every snap with the starting offense, and Ron Rivera has already been quoted saying they could’ve used him better in years past. Let’s not pretend Kelvin Benjamin is so good that Funchess can’t steal targets from him. The best thing about taking him as your last pick is that you’ll find out how they intend to use him in Week 1. If there’s nothing there, cut him loose, but I think there may be something you’ll like.
Tavon Austin (WR – LAR) Current ADP: 246
This one is going to require some creativity, so bear with me here. I may be reaching, but what would you say if I told you that Austin was a top-24 wide receiver just two years ago under the most vanilla coach of all-time? Austin accumulated 907 total yards and nine touchdowns in 2015 under Jeff Fisher, being used as he was meant to be. In that season, Austin saw just 87 targets, but carried the ball 52 times. Now under the youngest coach of all-time Sean McVay, we have someone who won’t be afraid to go outside the box with a player like Austin. Old school guys are stuck in their ways, but McVay would be willing to adapt, and considering Austin is costing them $22 million over the next two years, you can say they need to get the most out of him. Don’t forget that this is the guy who was the No. 1 consensus dynasty rookie pick in 2013. He’s not a WR1 (like he’s being paid to be) or anything, but at this price, he doesn’t need to be.
Paul Richardson (WR – SEA) Current ADP: 284
Going out on a high-note here, Richardson is someone who’s going way later than he should. And let’s be realistic, with an ADP of 284 overall, he’s not being drafted in many leagues. The former second-round pick has been dealing with injuries over the last few seasons, which allowed Jermaine Kearse and Tyler Lockett to see playing time over him. That was until the end of the 2016 season where Richardson had his chance to shine. He posted 15 receptions for 213 yards and two touchdowns over the Seahawks final four games, which obviously went over well with head coach Pete Carroll, because Richardson started training camp by running as the No. 2 wide receiver alongside Doug Baldwin. Considering Russell Wilson completes nearly 70 percent of his passes to wide receivers (outside of his injury-plagued 2016), Richardson shouldn’t need many targets to be relevant on an offense that’s been top-10 in scoring in four of five seasons under Wilson and Carroll.
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Mike Tagliere is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeTagliereNFL.
