After roughly four days of drama surrounding the Ryan Tannehill injury, the Dolphins have moved on, signing their replacement Jay Cutler to a one-year deal worth up to $13 million with incentives. This signing indicates that Tannehill is likely done for the season, as Cutler’s reps were reportedly stating that he wasn’t going to be coming out of retirement for a limited period. Moving forward, it’s fair to look at this team as one led by Cutler.

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History with Adam Gase

With that being said, let’s talk about what it means for fantasy purposes. Most would say that it’s hard to project a quarterback in a new offense, but we’ve actually seen Cutler in head coach Adam Gase’s offense before. Back in 2015, Gase coached Cutler to one of his most efficient seasons as a professional. But you should know that doesn’t necessarily mean great things for fantasy. Why? In the weeks Cutler played the whole game from start to finish, he averaged 33.9 attempts per game, which would have tied for the 22nd most in the NFL.

So what was the allocation of those targets and how can we translate it to the Dolphins offense? We’re going to take a look at the 14 games Cutler played in 2015, and compare it to how Gase has coordinated his offenses throughout the years.

 
Outside of Peyton Manning’s record breaking season in 2013, it seems that there is a trend in the way Gase wants his players targeted. Keep in mind that Cutler’s wide receiver totals were below the 67 percent mark of the other two Gase-led offenses, but for good reason. Take a look at the wide receivers that Cutler was throwing to in 2015 when he had one of his most efficient seasons to date.

 
What this means is that Josh Bellamy and Marc Mariani were the Bears No. 1 and No. 2 wide receivers for seven games in 2015. Most don’t realize that Brandon Marshall was already out of town with the Jets and that Jeffery missed seven full games and portions of others. Go ahead and criticize Cutler for the way he played in 2015. With this receiving corps, it’s a miracle he threw 21 touchdowns to 11 interceptions. When projecting him with the Dolphins offense, it’s much more likely to see his target allocation the way Gase has called it in 2016 with Tannehill and in 2014 with Manning.

What it Means for Dolphins Pass Catchers

Examining the Dolphins offense and where the strengths are, you can say that their starting three wide receivers are one of the better trios in the league (don’t take this the wrong way, but it’s hard to find teams this deep with their top three wide receivers). Sure, Julius Thomas was signed and he’ll have a role, but he also needs to stay on the field, something he hasn’t done throughout the entirety of his career. The fact that Jay Ajayi isn’t known to be a pass catcher should also influence the direction of passes that go to the wide receivers, as he’s definitely not much when compared to Matt Forte.

With the pass catchers Cutler had in 2015, it’s natural to expect a bit more attempts in 2017, though it will remain a run-heavy team. As of now, Cutler should be expected to throw the ball 34-36 times per game, which would put them right in the range of 540-570 pass attempts for the year. If the offense did in fact go the way Gase has called it outside of the wide receiver-depleted Bears team, we should expect target distribution like this.

Wide Receivers That Benefit the Most

If that were in fact the case, you should be bumping up Devante Parker and Kenny Stills in your rankings, as they have a real shot to eclipse 100 targets. We’ve heard nothing but great things about Parker this offseason, which is a far-cry from the reports last year. Gase had no issues calling him out last year, but has raved about his dedication this offseason, and by all beat writer accounts, it’s shown on the field. Fortunately for him, Cutler tends to favor the big body wide receivers and has the arm to get the ball downfield to them.

Now it’s fair to wonder if that’s happened because of Cutler’s wide receivers that were around him throughout his career, as he’s never really had a possession slot receiver like Jarvis Landry. He may become the new Forte for Cutler, which seems like it would be a great thing for his target outlook, as he was always among the league leaders in targets at the running back position, though his 70-95 targets per year pale in comparison to Landry’s 409 targets over the last three years (136 per year).

We should learn a lot about this offense over the next few weeks of preseason, but the fact that Gase “took it easy” with Cutler in 2015 may have had to do with his personnel more than anything. It’s not often that an offense has its starter go down in training camp and then proceeds to be in a better spot afterwards, but I’d argue that’s the case with the Dolphins. Cutler isn’t going to be a top-12 fantasy option or anything, but as we’ve seen in the past, he can support multiple top 24 wide receivers (on a per game basis) as he did in both 2013 and 2014 with Jeffery and Marshall. This is good news for the receiving corps. Cutler himself should be looked at as a low-end QB2 in the range with Carson Palmer and Eli Manning with upside for more.

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Mike Tagliere is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeTagliereNFL.