This is the fourth edition of Notable Batted Ball Profiles, a monthly article where we – you guessed it – dig into the batted ball profiles of various players and see what their fantasy value looks like moving forward. You can learn a lot about a player if you study things like how often they’re making hard contact, whether they’re hitting fly balls or ground balls, and if they’re getting lucky with home runs.
This time around, let’s take a look at how some players have performed over the second half, whether good or bad and what we can expect moving forward. All stats are accurate entering Tuesday’s contests.
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Maybe He’s Human After All
Aaron Judge (OF – NYY)
Judge had an unbelievable first half in which he slugged a league-high 30 home runs, and posted a .329/.448/.691 batting line. The power came on the backs of a downright silly 49.0% hard-hit rate and 41.7% HR/FB rate, which was good for a .466 wOBA and .362 ISO. He then put a bow on the whole thing with one of the most memorable home run derby performances in recent memory.
But you knew he couldn’t do it forever, right? Among qualified hitters, since 2010 the highest hard-hit rate in a season was David Ortiz in 2016 (45.9%), and the highest HR/FB rate was Nelson Cruz in 2015 (30.3%). Furthermore, in the midst of all this he had an unsustainable .426 BABIP and elevated 29.8% strikeout rate — all clear red flags that he would regress at some point.
Well, it would seem that time is now, as since the All-Star break, Judge’s batting line isn’t exactly headline-grabbing material at .182/.333/.337, and his hard-hit rate is a below-average 27.9%. His punch out rate has also jumped to 36.5%, while the BABIP has flipped the script at a lowly .237. It’s not all bad news, as he’s actually hitting more fly balls (51.2% rate), resulting in five dingers — good for a still excellent 22.7% HR/FB rate. And despite a poor .294 wOBA, his xwOBA is .373, suggesting he’s still performing at a high level despite the lack of results.
In all, due to the strikeouts, the batting average will likely continue to creep toward the .250 range, but we know the power is very, very real, so all that lovely hard contact should return — just don’t expect a rate bordering on 50% the rest of the way. Judge is an exceptional talent, and he should continue to contend for the league-lead in homers, but let’s hold off on a Cooperstown plaque just yet.
Bombs Away
Giancarlo Stanton (OF – MIA) and Willson Contreras (C – CHI)
Before Aaron Judge, there was the slugger formerly known as Mike Stanton, and Giancarlo is not only in the midst of what could be his finest season, but he’s absolutely crushing it this second half. Since the break, he’s mashed a league-best 11 homers off identical ridiculous marks in fly-ball rate and hard-hit rate (49.1%), leading to a .494 ISO. Yowza!
On the season, his 37 round-trippers are the most in the league, and already match a career-high for the oft-injured player. Perhaps the most promising development is he’s done it all the while striking out at the lowest rate of his career (23.7%). Between that and his usual high allotment of hard contact (38.3%), there’s little reason to believe he won’t maintain his lofty .402 wOBA. As long as he can stay healthy — knock on wood — Stanton could be in for a monster finish.
Meanwhile, we have another guy with double-digit dingers in the second half, as Contreras has slugged 10 long balls since the break, already nearly matching the 11 he hit across the entire first half. Indeed, he’s been on fire with a 37.9% hard-hit rate and .458 wOBA, while striking out just 18.5% of the time.
The improving hard-hit rate and lack of punch outs are great signs, although Contreras probably hits too many ground balls (52.9% rate this year) to project a torrid home run pace over the final months. Still, following a somewhat sluggish start to the year, as the Chicago Cubs’ cleanup hitter he’s poised to end the year as one of the game’s top catchers.
Slowing Down?
Yonder Alonso (1B – SEA) and Logan Morrison (1B – TB)
Alonso and Morrison have been two of baseball’s biggest surprises in 2017, with each already slugging their way to career-highs in home runs, notching marks of 22 and 28, respectively. In fact, I wrote about both players’ stellar first half performances just last month.
However, Alonso was showing signs of slowing down back then, and he’s continued to trend in the wrong direction. Since the beginning of July, he has just a 23.9% hard-hit rate, and his fly-ball rate has dropped to 32.8%. Those marks are a far cry from the 37.2% hard-hit rate and 50.6% fly-ball rate he posted over the season’s first three months. Regression was always a possibility, if not inevitable — after all, he never previously hit double-digit homers in a single season — but hitting more fly balls was the key to his early season success. Now with the Seattle Mariners, his value could take another hit as he’ll likely see fewer at-bats in an expected platoon with Danny Valencia. On the bright side, his post-June xwOBA is a respectable .334, and he’s still walking at a high clip (15.0% rate). He could be just fine if he returns to that high fly-ball rate, but recent returns have put a damper on things.
Morrison has similarly come back to Earth a bit, with a mere 19.2% hard-hit rate since the break, but he dealt with a bruised heel towards the end of July, and has already hit two long balls this month. Unlike Alonso, he’s shown no noticeable change in fly-ball rate (46.4% this season), so the dingers should keep coming once he starts making more hard contact. His second half strikeouts are up (29.4% rate), but it’s been buoyed by a strong 15.3% walk rate. Given that Morrison showed signs of improved power last year as well, this looks like a minor blip on the radar, and he’s still on track for a breakout year.
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Kenyatta Storin is a featured writer with FantasyPros. For more from Kenyatta, check out his archive and follow him @kenyattastorin
