Adaptation is one of the most important keys to Daily Fantasy Football, as each week is both literally and figuratively a clean slate. Preseason DFS is no exception. In fact, each new week brings with it a fresh set of nuances that must be taken into consideration. As DFS players, those nuances are the key to our edge and provide an opportunity to play with foresight as opposed to chasing points from last week’s contributors. Once again, the defining statistic that we will delve into will be playing time, but we will jump into a bit of slate-specific details since Week 2 is more structured in their offerings than Week 1.

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How is Week 2 of Preseason different from Week 1?

So, in the breakdown of preseason weeks for the NFL, Week 1 is typically the week where coaches are trying to suss out their fringe-options on the depth chart to figure out how many of each position they plan on keeping for the final 53-man roster. We also know that Week 3 is traditionally the week when starters get to play for an entire half of the game (making it, typically, the most watched week of preseason). So where does that leave Week 2? Floating in a bit of no-man’s land, quite honestly. This is where position battles and coaching philosophy become focal points for narrowing down lineups to enter into DFS slates. On one hand, coaches who have a firm idea of what their team is and who have veteran QBs that possess solid chemistry with their receiving corps have little to gain from keeping their starters in the game for any longer than one or two series. On the flip side, teams with QB position battles or teams with young starters can get a clearer picture of what kind of talent they possess and establish better team chemistry by leaving their starters on the field for a longer time. With that in mind, let’s dive into some data on how Week 2 playing time differs from Week 1.

Playing Time Breakdown

Quarterback
Again, for all playing time statistics, I will be using the data provided from the NFL Game Stats and Information System. In Week 1, our primary focus was to play the QB2 or QB3 on teams with three QBs on the roster. Here is a breakdown of Average Snap% for QBs in Week 1 and Week 2 of 2016 on teams that fall into this category:

 
As seen, QB1 Snap% more than doubles on three-QB teams, however, QB2 still receives the most playing time, on average. Again, look at the offensive dynamic and try to read if a coach prioritizes increased chemistry/reps for his starters against the risk for injury. This will be the defining variable that should impact your decision. However, if you believe the starting QB will be in situations that can provide 1.44x in terms of fantasy points, this data would point toward playing a starter (in a vacuum where all reps are equal, this may be the case, but in cases where coaches are looking to protect QB1 more than QB2, it’s not quite as simple). On teams with four QBs, we see a similar pattern:

 
Here the jump is more defined for QB1, however, their playing time for both weeks is below that of QB1s on three-QB teams. So our rules from Week 1 still give us a solid guide in pinpointing teams to target, however, specific team dynamics are more important when finally selecting which QB to roster.

Running Back
As outlined last week, most teams keep 5-to-7 running backs on their roster through Training Camp. Teams with less competition will once again see their players benefit with more opportunities for preseason playing time, however, age will be an important thing to keep note of when comparing backs on the same team. As a general rule of thumb, older RBs do not see as much preseason work as younger RBs, as the preseason adds unnecessary wear and tear to players (particularly RBs). Keeping that in mind, lets compare average Snap% for RBs on teams carrying five RBs:

 
The data suggests similar tendencies between QBs and RBs. We see an uptick in snaps for starters. The biggest change, however, is for RBs deeper on the depth chart as the snaps for RB5 are essentially cut in half. So the middle of the depth charts are going to be friendly to DFS players this week, especially if younger backs can be found on these teams with five RBs. Now let’s address teams rostering six RBs:

 
Immediately, you realize that the increased competition really levels the playing field for Snap% at RB. It’s a little dicey trying to pick a player on teams with this many RBs, however, if there is a young talent at RB3 or RB4, they may be worth consideration as they will be playing against practice squad talent on defense. This may be of increased value to pass-catching RBs, as they can be found in space and don’t get any downgrade running behind practice squad talent on offensive line. Presented with little commentary (as it is a continuation on the previous point on competition) is the data for RBs on teams with seven RBs:

 
As stated previously, increased competition really limits upside for RBs. Unless the perfect situation/player comes through in your research, I would avoid teams with seven RBs.

Wide Receiver
As stated in last week’s article, the number of WRs on the roster has negligible impact on playing time, as the position has a higher degree of volatility. Therefore, I will just provide overall WR Snap% from Week 1 and Week 2 of last preseason:

 
Okay, so there are a few points I’d like to address with this data. As a preface, breaking down WR spots on a depth chart is convoluted and has a whole mess of problems to try and take into consideration. The primary issue is that all receivers are not utilized equally. Coaches will have a WR to backup each role in their schemes — this means outside receivers backup outside receivers and slot receivers backup (you guessed it) slot receivers. Breaking down receiver roles is equally important as seeing how far they’re buried on the latest depth chart because the sixth most talented WR may get the nod over the fourth most talented WR if their roles in the offense are different. That being said, I think we can see that rule come to life with this data, a bit. We see a pretty even spread of Snap% for WRs. WR1 and WR2 see a nice bump in snaps, and nobody on the top half of the depth chart really sees any drastic drop in snaps. This means that the increase in snaps for the top of the lineup is coming from those beyond this data set, WR8 and beyond. The reason for this is because WRs that low on the depth chart are primarily being prepped and auditioned for roles in Special Teams. After Week 1, the snaps for the lesser receivers get cut as coaches begin to focus on which six or seven receivers can make an impact and have a spot in their offense (WR4, WR5, and WR6 all see significant playing time because of this).

Tight End
The breakdown for TE is always foggy for preseason football, as roles for TEs (blocking vs. receiving) are even more important to consider than they are for WR. However, the notable difference in Week 1 TE data and Week 2 TE data is a jump in snaps for TE1:

 
As TE1 and TE2 now eat up roughly half of the snaps for the game, it seems viable that we shouldn’t have to dig too deep in their depth charts to select our pick.

Week 2 Plays

Note: This article was written on Tuesday, 8/15. Preseason DFS is fluid so keep an ear to the ground, but these will at least give you a solid starting point for your research.

Quarterback

Deshaun Watson (HOU)
Last week, Jacksonville QBs had a 72% completion rating and two passing TDs against the Patriots D. Watson also had a good night passing in their preseason debut against the Panthers. He threw for 179 yards and ran for 24 yards and a TD in his first NFL action. As of today, the QB situation is a bit murky in Houston, but if Savage starts, I would expect to see Watson early and often as they’ll want to get him reps with as many first stringers as O’Brien is comfortable leaving in the game.

Blake Bortles (JAX)
This is a bit of a gamble and will require some trust in our data (and also require keeping a close ear on which QB is starting). This week it’s come out that Chad Henne has been working with the first string offense in practice, and I have a decent feeling he’ll get the nod over Bortles to start with them as well. This means Bortles should see a backup, vanilla defense this week against the Buccaneers. The Bucs D allowed a 74% completion rating and a passing TD against the Bengals. They did get an interception, but that was their first-string secondary (which Bortles should avoid if Henne continues the first-team reps).

Running Back

Kareem Hunt (KC)
Hunt has been the name buzzing around Training Camp this year. All indications point to the fact that he could be poised to attack Spencer Ware’s touches and snaps in this upcoming season. That being said, Hunt’s preseason debut was a bust. He had one carry for zero yards and one reception for nine yards. However, Week 2 provides an opportunity for Reid to decipher his RB depth chart and decide what the pecking order will be for that final depth chart and going into Week 3, where starters see more action. Hunt is officially listed as RB3 of five on the Chiefs’ Official Depth Chart and our data shows this is the week we should see an uptick in his carries.

D’Onta Foreman (HOU)
Foreman ran with purpose against Carolina last week and seems to be carving out his role as Lamar Miller’s complement in Houston. Playing the Patriots may be an advantage if they have a similar night as they had against Jacksonville. They allowed 207 yards rushing (including a 79-yarder to Corey Grant). I’d look to Foreman for a decent workload this week.

Wide Receiver

Chris Godwin (TB)
This pick comes from a similar line of thinking to that of picking Hunt. Both of these rookies have had lots of buzz during Training Camp. Godwin, a rookie out of Penn State, has dazzled with sure hands all Summer long. However, Godwin only saw one target in Week 1’s action. I assume as we see more involvement from the top-half of the depth chart, Godwin’s role in these preseason games will also rise, and he will see more of the target share sent his way.

Kenny Golladay (DET)
You didn’t actually think I’d forget to mention the darling of Week 1 of Preseason DFS, did you? Golladay caught three of his four targets for 53 yards and two TDs against the Colts on Sunday. The man is the definition of preseason hype, and I expect more of the same moving forward.

Aldrick Robinson (SF)
Lord Aldrick, as those of us who played DFS last preseason best know him as, is a flat-out playmaker. His scorching speed and big-play ability landed him 83 receiving yards off of just two receptions (four targets) last week against the Chiefs. This week, I would expect him to get some good opportunities in the second and third quarter as Shanahan continues to get a feel for how his offense will operate this year.

Tight End

Rico Gathers (DAL)
Gathers has been a nice surprise this preseason. He’s caught a TD in both of the Cowboys’ first two preseason games, and he should see increased reps to help him acclimate to the Cowboys offense and see just how high he can climb on the depth chart. I wouldn’t expect a TD from him in every game, but the opportunity will be there and in preseason that is essential.

Kicker

According to Ourlads Depth Charts, the following teams currently have only one kicker on the roster (meaning they are all preseason viable): Bills, Dolphins, Patriots, Ravens, Steelers, Colts, Jaguars, Broncos, Cowboys, Eagles, Redskins, Lions, Packers, Saints, Cardinals, Seahawks

Defense

Detroit Lions
I still believe picking on the Jets is viable for Fantasy Defense selection, especially as more and more starters get time on both sides of the ball. Another solid option in this category could be Carolina, playing a Titans offense that only managed a field goal last week.

Finally, continue to trust the beat writers and use their opinions to rank talent. Meanwhile, defer to their quotes from coaching staff/reps seen in practice to help decipher playing time. Otherwise, enjoy the fact that another season is nigh on the horizon and use this preseason to mine deep regular season sleepers.

Ethan Sauers is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Ethan, check out his archive and follow him @ethansauers.