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Regression Report: Yoan Moncada, Nick Castellanos, Matt Adams

Regression Report: Yoan Moncada, Nick Castellanos, Matt Adams

Now that the trade deadlines in many leagues are behind us, the waiver wire is the last recourse for overhauling our fantasy squads and adjusting to the specific needs of our title race.

But whereas many owners look at the positive ownership trends to see which players warrant their attention, it might instead be productive to look at the most dropped players in ESPN leagues to see if fantasy owners aren’t overreacting to small recent samples. These five hitters might be seeing dwindling ownership, but their underlying stats could indicate that positive regression is on the horizon, making them worthy speculative adds, depending, of course, on your league size and team needs.

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Jonathan Villar (SS/2B/3B – MIL)
65% owned at ESPN, dropped in 9% of leagues

Arguably this year’s most prominent Draft Day bust on the offensive side, Villar is beginning to test the patience of even his most ardent apologists, tallying a .246/.258/.295 triple slash over the last month and thus making quite a number of appearances on standard-league waiver wires.

If Villar is there for the taking, owners with nothing to lose but a waiver priority and a little bit of FAAB might want to see how the Brewers speedster fares in the home stretch. The results of late have indeed been very poor, but the underlying numbers aren’t exactly dire. OK, that 34% K-BB is pretty awful, but when Villar has been hitting the ball, he’s been doing so with some authority, managing a liner rate just under 40% and a respectable hard-hit rate around 33%.

The 68% contact rate and 16% whiff rate are tough to stomach, though. Villar needs to make better contact to put his one major fantasy asset, his speed, to good use. Or at least take the occasional walk–his walk rate on the month is under 2%. Still, a little bit goes a long way in the stolen base category, so if there’s any shred of hope that Villar can regress toward a more respectable plate-discipline profile, he could have a sneaky impact on some fantasy title races.

Nick Castellanos (3B – DET)
35% owned, dropped in 3% of leagues

Tigers infielder Nick Castellanos has been underperforming his peripherals all season, scratching out an unimpressive .742 OPS despite a career-best walk rate and an outrageous hard-hit rate approaching 47%.

The past month has been more of the same, with his OPS cratering at .705 despite his continued mashing at a 40% hard-contact clip. That .214 BABIP on the month seems rather unlucky indeed, though to be fair, the 47% fly rate might be a contributing factor–fly balls are much more likely to be outs than liners and even grounders.

Even so, the 25-year-old Tiger looks on paper like he’s ready to rip off a serious hot streak, so owners who need help on offense shouldn’t scroll past him on their waiver wire.

Yoan Moncada (3B/2B – CWS)
31% owned, dropped in 8% of leagues

Enthusiasm for highly touted prospects seems to come in direct proportion to the impatience that moves fantasy owners to cut bait on them after a short period of sub par performance.

On the one hand, White Sox super-prospect Yoan Moncada sure has floundered in the batting average category, riding a 33% strikeout rate to a .173 average over 63 plate appearances, with only three extra-base hits over that span.

But zeroing in on his issues in the average column might cause you to overlook that Moncada has shown a fair bit of poise at the plate, with a walk rate above 14% and a downright stingy 39% swing rate. Granted, Moncada’s swing rate at pitches in the zone is an exceptionally low 55%, which isn’t exactly a good thing–it could be as much an indication of his trouble with pitch recognition as his 12% whiff rate.

Still, if Moncada can get on base even as he struggles with making contact, his speed should still play enough to make him a difference maker in mid-sized fantasy leagues. After all, that elite speed and 35% hard contact should produce better than a .267 BABIP. In other words, there has to be some batting average regression coming. Moncada is just as interesting an upside add as he was when he was called up a few weeks ago.

Joc Pederson (OF – LAD)
21% owned, dropped in 2% of leagues

It’s surprising to see Pederson’s ownership continue to dwindle considering he’s posted a .228 ISO over the last month while hitting in the National League’s most dangerous offense.

Pederson’s batting average is never going to look pretty, so the .211 mark over his last 65 plate appearances shouldn’t raise too many eyebrows. But what should have your attention is a tidy K-BB around 7% over that span, a nice improvement on a career mark just under 13%.

Granted, Pederson might not have occasion to strike out while he’s beating the ball into the ground so prolifically, with an ugly 50% grounder rate over the last month compared to a measly 15% liner rate. This and the 28% weak contact make it hard to write off Pederson’s .208 BABIP over that span as an unlucky aberration.

But on the off chance that Pederson’s power pedigree and improving contact trends conspire for a strong showing during these final months, his lineup context makes him one of the more intriguing widely available players in fantasy. Owners who need lightning in a bottle could do a heck of a lot worse.

Matt Adams (1B – ATL)
17% owned, dropped in 6 % of leagues

Post-hype slugger Matt Adams has run quite hot and cold since being traded to the Braves in May. His first 152 plate appearances with the club were a revelation, producing a .302/.355/.633 slash line that appeared to finally make good on the promise he never quite fulfilled with the Cardinals.

However, Adams’ last month of work has had a more familiar ring of disappointment to it, as the triple slash has cratered to .222/.265/.429 thanks in part to a 4.5 strikeout-per-walk rate. Yet the subdued results belie a strong contact profile, with Adams stroking a 41% hard-hit rate, drilling the ball with enough authority to manage a pull rate near 57%.

Adams’ eligibility at one of the deepest positions in fantasy certainly makes his margin for error rather slim, but owners who need a jolt of production might speculate on an impending upswing from a player who looked like a must-add asset a little over a month ago.

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Tom Whalen is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Tom, check out his archive or follow him @tomcwhalen.

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