Each week in this report, I’ll be monitoring the performances of MLB rookies. I will emphasize those rookies who put up especially positive performances, while also taking care to mention rookies who are underperforming expectations. In both cases, I will dig into the underlying stats and attempt the difficult task of projecting forward.
Rookies are typically more unpredictable than their more experienced colleagues, and can, therefore, be a source of great profit in fantasy baseball, or great frustration. Stay tuned to this space every week to find out which newbies should be in the mix for your squad. Check out last week’s Rookie Report to keep up to date on all the hottest youngsters.
Stats are typically current prior to Tuesday’s games, and, as outlined in week 3, any quoted Statcast numbers are directly from Baseball Savant unless otherwise noted.
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Dominic Smith (1B – NYM)
Triple-A Las Vegas in the Pacific Coast League is one of the more hitter-friendly environments in the upper minors. Smith’s 16 HRs in 500 plate appearances were nice, but not the kind of eye-popping power numbers expected from a premium first-base prospect. He did display decent contact skills in Triple-A, continuing his trend from Double-A in 2016, while being relatively young for both leagues. On the strength of a .380 BABIP, his average was a lofty .330 at Las Vegas. So far in the majors, Smith has two homers in his 39 plate appearances, but is only hitting .158 with a .495 OPS. His 2.6% walk rate and 23.1% strikeout rate are both worse than his recent minor league marks, though neither is alarming in a small sample. Without any suspense remaining for the Mets this season, Smith is likely to be the nearly full-time 1B the rest of the way. As I’ve discussed on a few occasions this season, the major leagues seem to be playing more favorably for home runs than Triple-A, so it’s not difficult to envision Smith sustaining his home run rate from Vegas, but I still doubt he he will put a useful home run rate together with a solid average this season. He may profile as a larger version of Eric Hosmer at his peak, but Smith shouldn’t be counted on for that production this year. Owners in most leagues can probably do better on a speculative UTIL or corner infield slot.
Boog Powell (OF – OAK)
Powell is another contact-oriented player that also mixes in a bit of speed, with 11 steals in his 61 minor league games. He is notably more valued by statistically-based prospect systems like KATOH than other prospect lists, including the FantasyPros Consensus and Bobby Sylvester’s rankings. Apart from his excellent .340/.416/.490 line at Triple-A, Powell’s minor league numbers have not been stellar. Although he has one home so far in the majors, his 15 career minor league homers do not give confidence for much more. He has a chance to hit for average if he is more lucky than not on balls-in-play, but overall Powell can be safely ignored for fantasy purposes. He will be useful for the A’s to have on their roster, so owners resorting to the “warm body” approach can take a look.
Juan Minaya (RP – CWS)
In a barren White Sox bullpen, Minaya seems to have a leg up in earning save chances. At 26 years old getting his second look the majors, things don’t seem to be going perfectly according to plan. Minaya does average a mid-90s fastball and has a solid 11.25 K/9 this season. His walk rate is elevated at 4.22, but his 6.75 H/9 is low enough to keep his WHIP under control. With a 1.69 HR/9 in 32 IP, his ERA is a very pedestrian 4.50. Still, with no other relievers excelling on the south side, Minaya must be considered for teams in need of saves. There might not be many other options to pick up players with such late-inning roles this season.
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Andrew Dominijanni is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @ADominijanni.
