Each week in this report, I’ll be monitoring the performances of MLB rookies. I will emphasize those rookies who put up especially positive performances, while also taking care to mention rookies who are underperforming expectations. In both cases, I will dig into the underlying stats and attempt the difficult task of projecting forward.
Rookies are typically more unpredictable than their more experienced colleagues, and can, therefore, be a source of great profit in fantasy baseball, or great frustration. Stay tuned to this space every week to find out which newbies should be in the mix for your squad. Check out last week’s Rookie Report to keep up to date on all the hottest youngsters.
Stats are generally current prior to Tuesday’s games, and, as outlined in week 3, any quoted Statcast numbers are directly from Baseball Savant unless otherwise noted.
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Ozzie Albies (2B/SS – ATL)
It hasn’t been great for Albies so far. A .118/.286/.294 slash line in 21 plate appearances is plain bad, but he does have one homer and has walked four times against three strikeouts. It goes without saying that his 0.077 BABIP is not likely to stay so low, especially given his projected above average hit tool, which he showed off hitting .321 in Double-A as a 19-year-old last season. While speed will always be Ozzie’s carrying tool, his ground ball to fly ball ratio is not as high as one might expect, and he could be good for some sneaky power, especially considering the power environment in MLB compared to the minors. With just 14 batted-balls, Albies has shown the ability to hit the ball hard, averaging 94.1 mph exit velocity on line drives and fly balls, with a 104.5 mph maximum exit velocity. Realistically, Albies is too young to count on for fantasy this season, but he could be a real value in the later rounds of next year’s draft, especially if he does not shine down the stretch. Albies may not retain shortstop eligibility given that Johan Camargo has excelled in his debut and Dansby Swanson still exists, but he will still be middle infield eligible and capable of playing short, should a need arise in Atlanta. Albies ranks 8th on the FantasyPros Consensus Prospect Rankings and 34th on Bobby Sylvester’s rankings, making him the caliber of prospect to watch carefully regardless of his debut numbers.
Amed Rosario (SS – NYM)
The amount of attention paid to Rosario is much greater than that paid to Albies. Mostly, this is because Rosario is the top prospect in a heavily scrutinized Mets system, but partly because he is indeed ranked higher than Albies. Rosario sits 4th in the consensus rankings and 9th for Bobby Sylvester. He is also one year older than Albies and was certainly expected to debut much sooner. An extra year on Earth has not helped Rosario perform much better than Albies in his 22 plate appearances, trading Albies’ one homer for a steal, but hitting .182/.182/.364. Rosario started to click in the 2016 season in High-A and Double-A, but his ground ball heavy batted ball profile has prevented him from piling up homers. Despite his superior raw and game power grades, owners should not expect Rosario to out slug Albies, at least until he shows that he has adjusted his tendencies. With only plus speed compared to Albies’ plus-plus speed, Rosario should also not be expected to contribute more steals. All-in-all, Rosario projects to be a very similar player to Albies in the short term, although he is perhaps less likely to contribute a meaningful number of steals or homers. In the long term, Rosario may develop into a better power hitter, but it could take some time. Like Albies, though, Rosario is a high-end prospect who should be given a shot on fantasy rosters down the stretch and targeted as an upside play next draft season.
Brandon Woodruff (SP/RP – MIL)
Woodruff may have a limited time in the Brewers’ rotation. Unless someone else is injured or demoted, when Chase Anderson returns, Woodruff will likely be sent back down. Anderson is beginning a rehab assignment this week, so Woodruff may only get one or two more starts. Woodruff had a big 2016 in the minors at High-A and Double-A, with a K/9 over 9.0 and BB/9 well under 3.0, a groundball rate near 50% and xFIP well below 3.0. He did not excel quite as much at Triple-A this season, where his hits per nine innings spiked over nine, having been below seven in 2016. He wove his way in and out of danger in his first major league start, ultimately throwing 6.1 scoreless innings with six strikeouts. His 12.4% SwStr% in his first start continues his trend of excellent swinging strike rates. Woodruff was not a very highly rated prospect, 114 on the consensus list and 79 on Bobby’s list, but his performance in the minors, at least his peripherals, deserve attention. Matchups against the Twins, Pirates, and potentially Giants are also appealing. With the state of pitching in many fantasy leagues, Woodruff may be a worthy short-term play.
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Andrew Dominijanni is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @ADominijanni.
