One of my favorite strategies to employ in all fantasy sports — especially football — is what I like to call the “bounce-back strategy.” Often times, I’ll say that I like to look at what happened two years ago as opposed to what happened last year. Of course, you need to be smart about this. Drafting a 31-year-old running back who hit that vaunted age-30 wall is probably still not a good pick even if he had a monster year at the age of 29. The idea here is to draft players that are still in the midst of their athletic peaks and have shown the ability to be productive fantasy players in the past. It’s also important to assess their fantasy situations and keep an eye on players who have seen a major shift in ADP from the previous season. Here are some of the main factors that I look for when employing the “bounce-back strategy:”

a) Players who got hurt EARLY in the previous season (i.e. Jordy Nelson in the pre-season of 2015)

b) Talented, proven fantasy performers who are in a much-improved situation compared to last season (i.e. DeMarco Murray going from the Eagles to the Titans)

c) Players coming off unusually low touchdown totals that still project to be a featured part of the offense (i.e. Melvin Gordon with ZERO touchdowns as a starting running back, Mike Evans, Matt Ryan)

d) Post-hype sleepers; players who had a ton of hype the previous season, and underperformed significantly. These players can be had late in drafts (i.e. Davante Adams)

Let’s take a look at Matt Ryan last season.

In 2015, Ryan had one of the worst fantasy seasons of his career even though not much changed for him statistically from 2014 to 2015. The only significant difference was that he went from 28 touchdowns in 2014 to 21 in 2015 — his lowest total since his rookie season. This was an unusual drop for a veteran player such as Ryan who had thrown at least 26 touchdowns in five straight seasons before that. If Ryan was at an age in which you would expect regression or was injured then there would be some cause for concern. Due to the consistencies in his other stats, it was fair to assume that Ryan’s low touchdown total was simply just a case of bad luck in 2015. Those who assumed that, and took a chance on Ryan in 2016, were handsomely rewarded with nearly 5,000 yards and 38 touchdowns.

Of course, not everybody bounces back like Ryan did. Bears wide receiver Alshon Jeffery may have been pegged as a bounce-back player in 2016. Coming off two straight 1,000 yard seasons, the undeniably talented wideout had 807 yards and four touchdowns in only nine games. Still serving as Jay Cutler‘s favorite target, a bounce-back season was a reasonable expectation for Jeffery. Alshon actually started the season well, averaging about 100 yards per game in his first two contests. Unfortunately, Cutler got hurt two games into the season, and the connection with backup Brian Hoyer just wasn’t there for Jeffery. Due to his four-game PED suspension, Jeffery and Cutler only ended up playing four games together last season in which Jeffery had 311 yards (77.75 yards/game) and one touchdown. More touchdowns would have been nice, but the nearly 78 yards per game would have been good enough for his third 1,000+ yard season over 16 games played. Like with any wide receiver you draft, you run a risk of the starting quarterback getting injured and production falling off. A quarterback getting injured is hard to predict with any accuracy, and that is what plays into the “luck” factor of fantasy football. If you drafted Alshon Jeffery as a “bounce-back” player last season then you simply got unlucky that Brian Hoyer and Matt Barkley were throwing him footballs for the majority of the season.

Here are some bounce-back candidates that I think fit the “bounce back strategy” in 2017:

Combine rankings from 100+ experts into one consensus cheat sheet

Blake Bortles (JAC): ADP 229 (QB23)

• Touchdown total of 35 in 2015 was predictably unsustainable; regressed to 23 touchdowns in 2016.
• 2015 will likely be an outlier year for Bortles. Certainly capable of settling in as a 26-30 touchdown performer on a consistent basis.
• Regressed statistically to his rookie level of 6.2 yards per attempt, but new coaching staff/work with QB gurus Tom House & Adam Dedeaux may help improve effectiveness throwing downfield (it worked for Matt Ryan).
• Worth taking a chance on as your QB2.

Classification: Unusually low TD total/post-hype bounce-back

Russell Wilson (SEA): ADP 54 (QB6)

• Actually had fewer fantasy points than Bortles last season (who knew?).
• Career-high 34 touchdown passes in 2015 (most of them to Doug Baldwin) proved to be unsustainable; regressed to 21 in 2016.
• Rushing stats took a dip last season, but he actually threw for more yards than he did in 2015 at a respectable 7.7 yards per attempt.
• Still has a talented group of pass-catching options, in athletic prime (28 years old), and capable of top-five quarterback season.

Classification: Unusually low TD total bounce-back

Doug Martin (TAM): ADP 73 (RB28)

• Shot up draft boards last season following monster 2015, but disappointed once again (this has become a Doug Martin thing following big seasons).
• Early-season hamstring injury derailed his season; end of season suspension for PEDs (which obviously didn’t work) was a bad look.
• Will sit out first three games of season, and as a result, will fall in drafts.
• Capable of being a top-five running back performer on talented offense; reports from camp are all positive, and he is said to be in the best shape of his career.
• In athletic prime (28 years old), and cut out Chinese food from diet (no more P.F. Chang’s).

Classification: Early-season injury/post-hype bounce-back

Lamar Miller (HOU): ADP 26 (RB13)

• Severely overdrafted in 2016 following arrival in Houston; jumped into the first round in some cases.
• Entire offense was destroyed by Brock Osweiler merely existing.
• Still averaged four yards per carry despite the lack of a passing attack, but only had six total touchdowns due to limited scoring opportunities.
• Still expected to be workhorse back under head coach Bill O’Brien who loves to run the football.
• But most importantly, BROCK OSWEILER IS GONE!

Classification: Post-hype/improved situation bounce-back

Keenan Allen (LAC): ADP 42 (WR19):

• Suffered torn ACL in Week 1
• Returns as talented No.1 option in Chargers passing attack, and proven to be capable of WR1 numbers.

Classification: Early-season injury bounce-back

Allen Robinson (JAC): ADP 39 (WR18)

• Over-drafted in 2016 following an unsustainable 14 touchdowns and 1,400 yards in 2015; regressed to six touchdowns and 883 yards.
• Talented wide receiver capable of WR1 performance.
• Unrestricted free agent after 2017.
• Still No. 1 option for Bortles.

Classification: Unusually low TD total/post-hype bounce-back

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Joey Korman is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joey, check out his archive and follow him @leaveit2divac.