R.C. Fischer discusses deep sleeper candidate and Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Taylor Gabriel.
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Taylor Gabriel has had one of the strangest NFL journeys to success/fantasy football sleeperdom you’ll find among current NFL players.
Gabriel was a stud wide receiver for Abilene Christian (2010-2013) – a record holder and all-time top guy in several receiving categories for the school, as you would imagine a current NFL wide receiver would achieve at a lower level of college play. Back in 2014, as he prepared to enter the NFL Draft, no one really cared about his college accolades. Gabriel was not invited to the NFL Combine and was generally ignored pre-draft. What could anyone do with a low-level college producer 5′7″/170 pound wide receiver prospect anyway?
Gabriel goes undrafted and is given a rookie tryout with the Cleveland Browns in 2014. He’s so good in the preseason he claims a roster spot for Opening Day. In fact, he ends up playing a good amount of snaps in Week 1 of the 2014 season. He sees five targets and gets a rushing attempt, but he only catches one pass for five yards. In Week 3, he starts to ascend – 81 yards vs. Baltimore. In Week 4, Gabriel posts 95 yards vs. Tennessee. Suddenly, out of nowhere, Gabriel looks like the best wide receiver on the team. He uses blazing speed (4.40) and terrific overall athleticism (6.84 three-cone, 17 bench reps, 40″ vertical) to make some incredible deep ball catches. Not only is he an athlete, but he’s tough and has terrific concentration catching passes downfield. Gabriel is a revelation for a Cleveland Browns team that shot out to a 6–3 start (and then 7–4) in 2014 before falling apart late when Brian Hoyer got hurt and the illustrious Johnny Manziel took over and drove the car off the cliff. We think of the Browns as a joke, but then head coach Mike Pettine was orchestrating miracles – and yet can’t get another coaching gig? Careful using the Browns as a resume enhancer…
That same warning goes for Taylor Gabriel.
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In 2015, Gabriel is having another solid start to the season. Nothing flashy, but he’s getting targets. Josh McCown goes down with injury halfway into the season. Johnny Manziel takes over and down the tubes go the Browns. And Mike Pettine is fired. Gabriel gets nicked up later in that same season, misses some time, and has a quiet end to 2015. After two years, the unheralded UDFA Gabriel is one of the Browns’ best wide receivers but underutilized in an offense with terrible QB play thanks to the brilliant draft pick and forced starting of Johnny Manziel.
The Moneyball group comes into town in 2016 to take over. Because Moneyball is infallible the new management team drafts four wide receivers and a WR/TE hybrid…and later releases Gabriel in the 2016 preseason due to the WR depth chart congestion created. Fortunately, for Gabriel, Kyle Shanahan was the O-C in Cleveland back in 2014 — Gabriel’s breakout rookie campaign. He remembers Gabriel all too well, and the Falcons pick him up for ‘nothing’ in NFL terms.
Like usual, Gabriel impresses in the Falcons’ preseason and forces his way onto the roster. He’s seeing targets by Week 2, and by Week 6 he’s virtually a starter. From Weeks 9 to 16, Gabriel catches a team-high six TD passes (tied with Julio Jones for team lead in 2016) and he also rushes for a TD. Gabriel’s seven TDs in 2016 were more than Julio had in 2016, and Gabriel did so in roughly half a season as a part-time player.
Gabriel is an explosive, tough wide receiver and one that has another dimension – he can run the ball. Four carries last season for 51 yards (12.8 ypc) and a TD. Over his final 11 games, (eight regular-season and three playoff games), Gabriel averaged 3.3 catches for 58.5 receiving yards with 4.6 rushing yards and 0.64 TDs per game (53 catches, 936 yards, 10 TDs extrapolated into a 16-game season) and 10.1 FF PPG, 13.4 PPR PPG for fantasy scoring during that stretch. The 10.1 FF PPG in non-PPR was a WR1-like pace – that’s how great a stretch Gabriel had in late 2016, once given a chance. And only a part-time chance at that.
Why would an obvious talent and known producer on a high-functioning offense that plays most of its games in a dome be so ignored for fantasy 2017? Right now, according to FantasyPros expert consensus rankings – Dorial Green-Beckham is two spots ahead of the No. 74 ranked Taylor Gabriel in non-PPR redraft rankings among WRs. Michael Floyd is 13 spots ahead of Gabriel…adding even more to the insult.
In 2017, Gabriel returns to a Falcons offense as, worst-case, a part-time No. 3 wide receiver, entering in on passing downs – like he did, successfully, in 2016. Best case, Gabriel is not only a full-fledged No. 3 WR, but becomes a more heavily targeted guy flying under the radar as Julio-Sanu draw all the key coverage attention. And not only can Gabriel be a workhorse slot receiver but he has some Tyreek Hill in him. He is a fairly impressive runner with the ball. He just needs the touches. Gabriel’s proven what he can do with the ball if they’ll give it to him.
Fantasy GMs are chasing a lot of half-baked WRs late in fantasy drafts while Gabriel goes undrafted, a guy who gave WR1 non-PPR output levels of work the second half of last season and may be used more heavily this season. For the price, it’s a steal.
Longer-term, for dynasty GMs, if Atlanta ignores Gabriel in 2017, the unrestricted free agent to be in 2018 will be sprinting to San Francisco to rejoin Kyle Shanahan and their new QB Kirk Cousins. If Gabriel doesn’t work for 2017 there is a hidden upside for 2018.
…or take a flyer on Dorial Green-Beckham. Your choice.
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