It’s widely accepted that the most important part of fantasy football is the draft. That’s probably true. But, if any aspect of the game can give the draft a run for its money, it’s pickups. In-season pickups in fantasy football are of paramount importance. Over the course of a season, you will likely average more than two moves per week. Some of these moves will be irrelevant like swapping out a kicker or grabbing an insurance player in case your questionable Sunday Night Football player doesn’t play. Others will be season changing like picking up that breakout WR or the backup RB to the injured starter.

Your ability to be able to manipulate the waiver wire is essential to your success each season. Your Free Agent Auction Budget (FAAB) dictates the level of influence you can exert on the free agent pool. One of the more challenging, yet necessary skills in this game is to effectively manage your money throughout the season. You must very delicately balance the value of the potential new hotness star against the importance of reserving funds to be able to control pickups later in the season. Using some of the key waiver adds in 2016, we’re going to try and decipher when you should play it safe and when you should unload the cannons earlier in the season.

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Early Season

In 2016, there were two relatively big-money names early in the season: Tyrell Williams and Quincy Enunwa. Williams was a hot add because Keenan Allen tore his ACL in the Chargers’ opening contest and Williams was the clear replacement. Enunwa was a hot add because he had two very impressive games to open the season. If you spent 20% of your budget on one of these two guys, it was probably worth it. But why?

With Williams, the answer is clear. We knew right away that Allen was done for the season which guaranteed Williams season-long value. The lesson here is when a talented backup assumes a season-long starting role, that is worth a significant portion of your budget even early in the season. This type of player cannot only push your starting lineup but can provide you with depth that allows you to consolidate your bench players and excess talent into a superior starter.

With Enunwa, I would have argued against adding him at the time. Before Eric Decker got hurt, Enunwa was still the third receiver on a weak offense playing behind two guys who historically have dominated targets. There simply wasn’t enough volume to sustain all three WRs as fantasy viable. Had Decker not gotten hurt, between him, Brandon Marshall, and Enunwa, who was more likely to be the odd man out? That’s why, at the time, Enunwa’s hot start struck me as a mere flash in the pan. When deciding whether a player is worth your funds, you need to consider the long-term sustainability of that player’s value. Enunwa did not ascend into a starting role. Enunwa did not emerge due to an injury in front of him. He was simply a third receiver who had two strong games. That is not indicative of sustained success. He was certainly worth a bid but not any significant portion of your budget.

Middle Weeks

In the middle of the season, we saw Bilal Powell and Jay Ajayi command a hefty portion of your dollars. Toward the middle of the season, you want to open up a little more. You can afford to take more risks with your money because the later you get into the season, the less likely it becomes that you’ll need a huge chunk of cash to drop on a particular player. At this point, you can spend up to 30% of your budget on any player you think can either win you a week or contribute meaningfully in the near future. With Arian Foster’s midseason retirement and Matt Forte’s increasing ineffectiveness, we had reason to believe that both Ajayi and Powell would be fantasy relevant for the remainder of the season, potentially in starting roles. While no one could have seen Ajayi’s explosion coming, we did know he was the starting RB for the Dolphins. If you were strapped at RB, he’s exactly the type of player that is worth gambling on. Powell was not as clear because Forte wasn’t hurt or retired, he was just ineffective. However, Powell’s increased usage in the passing game and general increase in snaps gave reason to believe it wasn’t a fluke like teammate Quincy Enunwa (to be clear, Enunwa’s talent is real, it was just his spike in production that I consider a fluke). That fact combined with the very real concerns that Forte was breaking down provided context for a Powell take over.

Late Season

Once you get into the final few weeks of the regular season, you want to treat your remaining budget as a tool to win each individual matchup (unless, of course, you’ve been dominating and have a playoff spot secured, in which case you want to use your remaining budget to construct the best possible team to win a championship). If you need to spend a few extra dollars to get that defense facing the Jets – do it. If your starting RB is likely only missing one game, but his backup projects to have a great matchup, spend that money to get that one game. Ideally, you always want to have some funds left over to utilize in the playoffs. I remember back in 2014 when my semi-finals opponent had $0 left over and his best player, Julio Jones was injured. I was able to bid $1 on Harry Douglas – not to get him – but merely to ensure that my opponent did not. That move ended up winning me the matchup (in case you were curious, unfortunately, I fell short in the finals). In the playoffs, you can use your money to play defense because the only thing that matters is beating the team in front of you. Late in the regular season, if you’re on the cusp of a playoff berth, you should be treating each matchup the same way. Do not worry about the next week if it’s not guaranteed.

Recap

Early Season
Try and conserve your money. Only spend large chunks of funds on players you assess to have season-long viability.

Middle Weeks
Loosen up a bit. You can spend decent amounts on players expected to be useful for only a short time. Large bids can be placed on players that can change your season.

Late Season
Playoff teams should be planning for the playoffs. Teams fighting for a spot should be doing everything necessary to win each week, even if it means spending significant funds on one-week fixes.

Injury Replacements
If one of your key players goes down at any point in the season, you do what you need to do to plug the hole. If for some reason Derrick Henry was unowned in your league and you lost DeMarco Murray, Henry would legitimately be worth your entire budget because we know he can be an RB1 in a feature role. On the other hand, if David Johnson went down, there is no reason to spend a lot on Chris Johnson or Kerwynn Williams because the talent gap is so massive and there is no clear lead back in DJ’s absence.

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There are always exceptions. Ultimately, the decision regarding how to manage your budget is up to you. You can take in all the advice and suggestions from others, but if you think spending (or not spending) on a particular player is the right move for your season, then that’s what you should do.

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Jason Katz is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Jason, check out his archive or follow him @jasonkatz13.