It’s Sunday morning and we are just hours from having a great time. While we wait, I wanted to help you dream on the season with me. Thursday night’s season opener showed us how volatile NFL outcomes can be when the Chiefs took down the Patriots. The matter of the fact is that 16 games is a small sample size and any number of factors from injuries to breakouts can significantly change the outcome of a season. Last year, it was Cam Newton taking a major step back while Dak Prescott emerged as a terrific quarterback. It happens every year, making the entire NFL season more difficult to predict than the ridiculous odds of a March Madness bracket. I’m going to take my stab at it anyway. So there will, of course, be some picks that appear to be bizarre, but that is the nature of the concept. Think of it this way: If you simulated a million seasons and plucked a random season out, you wouldn’t see 5 to 11 wins like we neatly see in most prediction articles. We would see a few teams with just 2 or 3 wins and perhaps a surprise team breaking out for 13 or 14. There would be 2 or 3 surprise teams in the playoffs and another 1 or 2 that dropped out of the playoffs despite an overwhelming consensus expecting them to make it. So here is my attempt at the “perfect bracket”.
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NFL Standings
AFC East
Patriots 12
Dolphins 9
Bills 3
Jets 2
–The Pats bounced back from a slow start to cruise into their eighth consecutive first round bye. Jay Cutler and Jay Ajayi both had disappointing campaigns for the Dolphins, but the emergence of their defense and lock down secondary had them just a Week 17 loss from making the playoffs. The Bills end up starting T.J. Yates for 9 games and nearly steal the first overall pick from the lowly Jets.
AFC North
Steelers 11
*Bengals 9
Ravens 7
Browns 4
–Big Ben finally managed to stay healthy for the entire season, but the 6 game absence of Antonio Brown cost them a first-round bye. Their defense took a big step forward, but not as much as the Bengals’ offense, who finished second in the league in scoring. Joe Flacco‘s back injury re-emerged several times, leaving the Ravens with one of the worst offenses in football.
AFC South
Titans 13
*Jaguars 10
Texans 6
Colts 2
–The Titans’ offense looked more like the Falcons of 2016 with a two headed running back monster, and an emergent MVP candidate in Marcus Mariota. Perhaps the biggest surprise in the NFL was Blake Bortles‘ progression toward becoming a game manager. Enough so, at least, to help the #2 defense in football sneak into the playoffs. The Texans offense under Tom Savage and Deshaun Watson was lousy enough to drop their own great defense out of contention, but it was the Colts who finished the year with the worst offense in football after Andrew Luck was shut down for the season when the Colts started 1-5.
AFC West
Chargers 11
Chiefs 9
Raiders 8
Broncos 7
–After starting 2-4, the Chargers came roaring back to win 9 of their final 10 games behind Keenan Allen‘s NFL leading 111 receptions. Kansas City had to rely on the rookie, Patrick Mahomes for the second half of the season, and while he performed admirably, they lost the playoff tiebreaker to Cincinnati. Derek Carr and the Raiders offense took a big step backward when they ran into some offensive line issues, and the Broncos just couldn’t put up the points to compete in the toughest division in football.
NFC East
Eagles 11
*Giants 10
Redskins 10
Cowboys 6
—Carson Wentz had an extremely efficient season and fed the ball to his favorite new target, Alshon Jeffery for a league leading 1,600 yards. The big story came when the then 3-4 Giants lost Eli Manning. Geno Smith stepped in to lead them to the playoffs just over Kirk Cousins and breakout running back Samaje Perine‘s Redskins. Injuries riddled the Cowboys offensive line which exposed Dak Prescott as a less than mediocre QB, as Dallas was the biggest disappointment of the season.
NFC North
Vikings 14
*Packers 10
Lions 5
Bears 5
–Minnesota began the season 11-0 on the back of a fearsome defense and the surprise play of Sam Bradford. It was Aaron Rodgers, however, who captivated the league, with perhaps the greatest NFL season ever (4,400 yards, 37 TD, 1 INT). The Lions dealt with a plethora of injuries, quickly falling out of contention, while the Bears came to realize late in the season that they have something special in rookie quarterback, Mitch Trubisky.
NFC South
Saints 10
Falcons 9
Panthers 6
Buccaneers 6
–Without Brandin Cooks in town, Michael Thomas emerged as the alpha dog wide receiver in the NFL and the Saints improved defense helped them hold off a Falcons team that couldn’t overcome a slow start. The Panthers lost their final 5 games when Cam Newton was shut down for another rotator cuff surgery. Meanwhile, Jameis Winston‘s turnover issues only got worse, as the Bucs began discussing alternative options at quarterback for the future.
NFC West
Cardinals 13
Seahawks 9
49ers 6
Rams 3
—Carson Palmer and Larry Fitzgerald both enjoyed classic seasons as the Cardinals and their stout defense secured home-field advantage in the playoffs. While the Seahawks’ defense remained among the best in the league, their offensive line woes were enough to keep them just short of the playoffs. The 49ers defense surprised people, as DeForest Buckner led the league in sacks, but even Kyle Shannahan couldn’t drag their offense out of the dumps. That is more than the Rams could say, however, as they ended up in the running for that coveted first overall pick.
Playoffs
Wild Card Round
Chargers 17
Jaguars 6
–Joey Bosa ravaged Bortles for 3 sacks in this defensive battle
Steelers 33
Bengals 42
—Joe Mixon ran wild for 210 total yards and 3 TDs
Saints 20
Giants 24
—Geno Smith rushed for 2 TDs and threw for another
Eagles 16
Packers 41
–Aaron Rodgers continued his assault on the league with 4 TDs
Divisional Round
Titans 19
Chargers 27
—Hunter Henry pulled in two touchdowns including a game winner
Patriots 30
Bengals 21
—Tom Brady found playoff mode, completing all but 3 passes
Vikings 24
Giants 10
–The Vikings forced 4 turnovers and scored on a pick-six
Cardinals 38
Packers 28
–The Packers couldn’t stop John Brown in this shootout
Conference Championships
Patriots 23
Chargers 30
—Phillip Rivers outdueled the legend in Brady’s retirement game
Vikings 27
Cardinals 3
—Carson Palmer was held to just 115 yards passing with 3 turnovers
Super Bowl
–The Chargers marched right down the field for a quick score to Hunter Henry but the Jerrick McKinnon took the kickoff back for a TD to tie the game at 7. Minnesota added two field goals to make the score 13-7 heading into the locker rooms. Phillip Rivers scrambled in for a score to take the lead, and eventually, Dalvin Cook found his way in on a 34-yard scamper, but they failed on the two-point conversion attempt to Kyle Rudolph to make the score 22-17 with 4 minutes to go. Phillip Rivers peppered Keenan Allen for 4 receptions in the final drive including a 19-yard strike across the middle of the end-zone to take the lead and earn the Super Bowl victory.
Chargers 25
Vikings 22
2017 Awards
League MVP: Aaron Rodgers
Super Bowl MVP: Phillip Rivers
Fantasy MVP: Le’Veon Bell
Top Fantasy QB: Aaron Rodgers
Top Value QB: Andy Dalton
Breakout QB: Sam Bradford
Top Fantasy RB: Le’Veon Bell
Top Value RB: Bilal Powell
Breakout RB: Wendell Smallwood
Top Fantasy WR: Michael Thomas
Top Value WR: Stefon Diggs
Breakout WR: Kevin White
2018 NFL Draft
- Jets – Josh Rosen (QB – UCLA)
- Colts – Trey Adams (OT – Washington)
- Bills – Sam Darnold (QB – USC)
- Rams – Derwin James (S – Florida State)
- Browns – Saquon Barkley (RB – Penn State)
- 49ers (from CHI) – Josh Allen (QB – Wyoming)
- Lions – Christian Kirk (WR – Texas A&M)
- Panthers – Mike McGlinchey (OT – Notre Dame)
- Cowboys – Arden Key (OLB – LSU)
- Texans – Lamar Jackson (QB – Louisville)
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