The top pitching option, Chris Sale, is a no-doubt selection in cash games and a high-upside GPP pick, too. There are only two other arms I’m touting as SP2 selections behind him. I’ll take the intro as an opportunity to point out that James Paxton is going to be on just a 50-pitch limit, so as great as he’s been this year, and as inviting as his $6,300 salary might seem, he’s a bad SP2 selection with such a low pitch limit. Sale’s sizable salary commitment and the cost of the two SP2 options I’m touting along with him aren’t lost on me, so the hitters highlighted below keep the high percentage of cap space dedicated to pitchers in mind.
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Pitchers
Chris Sale (BOS) : $13,100 @ Rays
The team is headlined by Sale. His last start was against the Rays, and he held them scoreless on six hits, one walk, and eight strikeouts in six innings. That was his lowest strikeout output facing the Rays in five starts. In the other four turns, he’s struck out 12, 12, 12, and 13, respectively. The Rays have struck out in an MLB-high 26.1% of their plate appearances against lefties this year, per FanGraphs, and they rank just 22nd in wRC+ (88) against lefties this year. Sale’s been brilliant this year with a 2.76 ERA (2.20 FIP, 2.68 xFIP, and 2.59 SIERA as well as a 2.10 DRA, according to Baseball Prospectus), 0.95 WHIP, 4.9% BB%, 35.9% K%, and 14.9% SwStr%. The southpaw and the Red Sox are -183 favorites in a game with a pitcher-friendly over/under total of 7.5 runs, per Pinnacle, and he’s a slam-dunk pick as the top pitcher.
Charlie Morton (HOU) : $8,100 vs. Mariners
Morton’s my preferred SP2 to pair with Sale, and there are plenty of value bats to accommodate using Sale and Morton together. The Astros are -117 favorites at home against the visiting Mariners. Morton’s having a career year, and he’s in good form. Over the last 30 days, he has a 3.95 ERA (2.71 FIP, 3.27 xFIP, and 3.31 SIERA), 1.24 WHIP, 8.7% BB%, 32.2% K%, and 12.7% SwStr% in five starts spanning 27.1 innings. The righty has been better at home than on the road with a 3.64 ERA (3.90 FIP and 3.59 xFIP), 8.8% BB%, and 26.6% K% in 84.0 innings in Houston this season. The game’s location is also beneficial due to the difference in performance from the M’s offense at home (110 wRC+) and on the road (92 wRC+).
Chad Kuhl (PIT): $7,500 @ Reds
Kuhl has been a regularly touted value SP2 from me over the last few months. By now, you’re probably aware of the addition of the curve to his repertoire, but his numbers since mixing it in are worth repeating. Since rolling the pitch out as a regular part of his arsenal on May 31, he’s made 19 starts spanning 103.1 innings in which he’s spun a 3.31 ERA (3.89 FIP, 4.37 xFIP, and 4.77 SIERA), 1.35 WHIP, 11.8% BB%, 22.0% K%, and 8.7% SwStr%. The SwStr% is unimpressive, but he’s had some bat-missing games in that 19-start stretch. Kuhl’s gone five straight starts allowing two earned runs or fewer. He’s not a “safe” pick, especially in homer-friendly Great American Ball Park, but the Reds are only a middle-of-the-road offense ranking tied for 13th in wRC+ (99) against right-handed pitchers this season. The bargain options at SP2 tonight are brutal, but Kuhl’s capable of delivering a start that provides value at a fairly inexpensive price tag.
Hitters
Ian Desmond (COL): $3,600 vs. Padres
The Rockies are at home tonight, and the game’s over/under total is a slate-high 12 runs with the Rockies serving as -174 favorites. There isn’t another double-digit total on the board. Desmond hasn’t provided the offensive impact the Rockies expected when signing him in the offseason, but since 2015, he’s been a few ticks above average against southpaws with a 104 wRC+. Most important, though, he’s a capable right-handed hitter who gets a crack at Clayton Richard‘s .365 OBP, .524 SLG, and .372 wOBA allowed to righties this year.
Nolan Arenado (COL) : $5,400 vs. Padres
Trust me, you can fit Arenado on a roster with Sale and Morton without running out hot garbage at the other hitter spots. He’s a worthy big-ticket item to spend up to tonight as the crown-jewel piece of the big over/under total in Colorado. Since 2015, Arenado has a .426 OBP, .347 ISO, and 160 wRC+ against lefties at Coors Field.
Yangervis Solarte (SDP) : $3,800 @ Rockies
Solarte is one of two under-priced Friars to get some love in this piece. The switch-hitting Solarte hit third in the Padres’ last game on Wednesday against righty Ervin Santana, and that puts him in a favorable run-producing spot. Batting left-handed against righty Tyler Chatwood, he’ll be in a position to take advantage Chatwood’s .442 OBP, .555 SLG, and .424 wOBA coughed up to 130 left-handed batters faced at Coors Field this year.
Cory Spangenberg (SDP): $3,500 @ Rockies
Hitting a few spots lower than Solarte in San Diego’s last contest was Spangenberg, slotting sixth. He, too, will be a piece of left-handed hitting exposure to Chatwood. This season, he’s rattled off a .353 OBP, .180 ISO, and 120 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers.
Matt Olson (OAK): $4,200 @ Phillies
Olson’s power has been on full display this year with 18 homers in 180 plate appearances in the Majors after belting 23 in 343 Triple-A plate appearances. He’s launched 15 homers with a .362 OBP, .385 ISO, 167 wRC+, 47.6% FB%, and 44.1% Hard% in 138 plate appearances against righties in The Show, and his power will get a lift tonight from Citizen Bank Park’s left-handed batter park factor of 127 for homers, according to StatCorner’s rolling 3-year average. His salary hasn’t caught up to his outstanding production since getting regular playing time, and I’ll gladly take advantage of the discount from where his salary should reside.
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
