DraftKings MLB Lineup Advice: Monday (9/11)

Sep 11, 2017

Carlos Carrasco is a -300 favorite tonight

A new week presents us with a short, eight game slate to work with. Keep in mind the Yankees/Rays game has been relocated to Citi Field in New York, but the weather does not look to be playing a role there. Let’s take a look at some top plays for DraftKings.

Weather Situations to Monitor:

  • Dodgers @ Giants

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Carlos Carrasco (CLE): $13,200 vs. DET
Carrasco will look to keep things rolling for the historically hot Indians, who are looking to stretch their winning streak to 19 in a row tonight. They will host the rebuilding Tigers, who are sending a middle relief pitcher to the mound this evening. Run support shouldn’t be an issue, so it’s up to Carrasco to continue his own impressive run. Short of an ugly outing against the Red Sox last month, Carrasco has surrendered one run or less in each of his last six starts, while striking out at least eight batters in all of those, minus the Red Sox outing. His control has been impeccable as well over that span, so he is clearly dialed in along with the rest of the team. The Tigers have ranked above average over the last two weeks against right-handed hitters, but their lineup won’t dissuade me from targeting Carrasco, especially on a short slate.

Zack Greinke (ARI): $11,800 vs. COL
Greinke has spun three consecutive strong starts and he will look to make it four in a row tonight against the Rockies. Greinke has fared much better at home this season as opposed to pitching on the road, and he will draw a plus matchup. The Rockies have been showing some signs of life as of late, but they are still striking out at a high clip, which gives Greinke a nice boost. If you don’t want to spend up for Carlos Carrasco, Greinke is a fine consolation tonight.

Jason Hammel (KCR): $7,400 vs. CWS
Make no mistake, Hammel has been a mess this season, but he’s proved to be a decent flier when in the right situation as of late. Tonight could be one of those situations, as he faces the White Sox, who are striking out a whopping 31.6% of the time against right-handed pitching over the last two weeks. They rank right around the middle of the pack in terms of wRC+, so it’s a relatively neutral matchup on that side of things for Hammel. You won’t get Carlos Carrasco or Zack Greinke numbers from Hammel, but he could prove to be a very serviceable option for the price.

Brandon Woodruff (MIL): $7,100 vs. PIT
Woodruff is coming off of a strong outing against the Nationals, and he will look to build upon that success at home against the Pirates. Pittsburgh ranks near the bottom of the league in terms of wRC+ against right-handed pitching, and while this is a plus park shift for their hitters, I don’t mind Woodruff as a tournament play tonight. The Pirates have an implied run total of 3.96, so there’s a bit of reason to think he can be a decent play this evening. It’s worth noting that his xFIP is nearly three full runs higher than his actual ERA, so this success likely won’t last forever. That being said, I think he’s worth a look on a short slate.

Indians Stack vs. Myles Jaye
Francisco Liriano (SS): $5,600
Jose Ramirez (2B/3B): $5,300
Carlos Santana (1B): $5,200
Edwin Encarnacion (1B): $5,000
Lonnie Chisenhall (OF): $4,600
Yandy Diaz (3B/OF): $3,300

The Indians surely can’t keep this going…or can they?? The Tigers are sending a middle relief pitcher to the mound, so I don’t see them not being able to tack on their 19th straight win tonight. The top four listed above are the obvious targets, but I also listed two lesser-known names to consider as well. The top four hitters will be popular, so don’t be afraid to mix in one or two of the other bats in an effort to differentiate your stack, especially on a short slate.

Diamondbacks RHB vs. Kyle Freeland
J.D. Martinez (OF): $5,500
Paul Goldschmidt (1B): $4,900
A.J. Pollock (OF): $4,500
Chris Iannetta (C): $3,600

Kyle Freeland has allowed a .342 wOBA and 13 home runs to right-handed hitters this season, so be sure to target the Diamondbacks’ right-handed hitters tonight. Martinez sports an absurd .541 wOBA/.519 ISO against lefties, so he should be the cornerstone of any lineup tonight. From there, it’s tough not to like Goldschmidt (.416 wOBA/.265 ISO), Pollock (.233 ISO) and Iannetta (.404 wOBA/.219 ISO) as well.

Rangers RHB vs. Ariel Miranda
Delino DeShields (OF): $4,000
Elvis Andrus (SS): $3,900
Joey Gallo (1B): $3,700
Robinson Chirinos (C): $3,300
Mike Napoli (1B): $3,300

Miranda has allowed a whopping 30 home runs to right-handed hitters, so you definitely want some exposure against him tonight. Mike Napoli (.274 ISO), Elvis Andrus (.234 ISO) and Robinson Chirinos (.344 ISO) all have good pop against lefties, but don’t overlook Joey Gallo (.307 ISO). Just seven of his 37 home runs have come against lefties, but that isolated power suggests he’s still a viable play, especially given the chance that he could go overlooked due to a lefty/lefty matchup. DeShields brings speed upside to the table, which is another valuable statistic that’s worth targeting in tournaments.

Nelson Cruz (OF): $4,400 @ Rangers vs. Cole Hamels
Cruz will hold the platoon advantage over Cole Hamels tonight, who has been susceptible to hard contact allowed to right-handed hitters this season (36.1%). I think he’s worth picking on with Cruz, who still sports solid numbers against lefties this season (.367 wOBA/.179 ISO). This is a good park for power, and I think Cruz sticks out as a great tournament play as a result.

Hot Hitter
Mitch Haniger (OF): $4,100 @ Rangers vs. Cole Hamels
It was tempting to leave Jose Ramirez here yet again, but I’ll go against the grain here a bit. While I wouldn’t go overboard in picking on Cole Hamels tonight, I don’t mind targeting a hot Mitch Haniger against him tonight. Haniger is hitting .442 over the last two weeks with a .326 ISO, and despite not taking a walk since August 20th, I don’t mind rolling with him in tournaments as either a standalone play or as a mini stack with Nelson Cruz.

Batter vs. Pitcher
Evan Longoria (3B): $3,500 @ Yankees vs. CC Sabathia
In 76 career at-bats against CC Sabathia, Longoria has 32 hits (.421 AVG) with eight home runs. Sabathia continues to be plagued by home runs against right-handed hitters, so don’t be afraid to play Longoria tonight as he faces a familiar foe.

Adam Sutton is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Adam, follow him @DraftStars_Adam. You can find more of Adam’s work at DraftStars.net.

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