DraftKings MLB Lineup Advice: Saturday (9/23)
Stephen Strasburg is the pitcher to own on tonight’s slate, and he’s featured below. There is a nice pivot if you’re looking to squeeze an extra big bat or two onto your roster, and the bargain SP2 will likely be incredibly chalky since his home/road splits are a not-so-well-kept secret. The hitting selections feature a couple of repeat visitors from yesterday’s piece as well as a trio of lefty-killers facing southpaws tonight.
Stephen Strasburg (WAS): $13,300 @ Mets
Strasburg is opposing Noah Syndergaard, but don’t let the marquee matchup dissuade you from using Stras since it’s not really what it appears. Thor is only throwing one inning before handing the husk of an ace known as Matt Harvey. Stras and the Nationals are -204 favorites in a game with an over/under total of only 8.5 runs, per Pinnacle.
The 29-year-old righty is having an outstanding season, but he’s been on a surreal run of success over the last 30 days. In that timeframe, he has made five starts totaling 35.0 innings in which he’s spun a 0.26 ERA (1.41 FIP, 2.53 xFIP, and 2.72 SIERA), 0.74 WHIP, 4.7% BB%, 32.3% K%, and 13.2% SwStr%, per FanGraphs.
The Mets have struggled offensively at home this year ranking tied for 20th in wRC+ (96). He’ll be extremely chalky, especially with a chalky sub-$6,000 SP2 option available — more on him to come — but Strasburg is a strong play in GPPs and a must in cash games.
Gerrit Cole (PIT): $8,800 vs. Cardinals
Cole’s a viable pivot from Strasburg if you’re looking for an extra hitter or two, or if you have a high-priced stack in mind that you’d like to complement with other pricey thumpers. Cole’s been enigmatic this year, but he’s punching out batters in bunches of late. Over the last 30 days, he has a 28.1% K% and 13.6% SwStr%.
He’s struck out six or more batters in eight straight starts, and he’s gone 10 straight with five punch outs or more. If you’re going to fade Strasburg, you’ll want a hurler with sizable strikeout upside, and Cole certainly provides that.
He’s a small underdog with the visiting Cardinals -114 favorites. Getting the Cardinals in his home park is a big deal, though, since the Cardinals own a 106 wRC+ at home but just a 97 wRC+ on the road.
Jhoulys Chacin (SD): $5,900 vs. Rockies
I’ve teased Chacin multiple times already, and here’s the not-so-mystery man. In 94.1 innings pitched at home this year, he has a 1.91 ERA (3.83 FIP and 4.45 xFIP), 1.00 WHIP, 9.1% BB%, and 20.6% K%. The ERA looks rather lucky, but he’s done an exceptional job of limiting hard contact with a 26.7% Hard% at Petco Park and a 20.2% Soft%.
The righty’s dominance at home lines up nicely with Colorado’s struggles on the road. The Rockies rank tied for 25th in wRC+ (82) on the road, and their 24.5% K% on the road is tied for the fifth highest.
Chacin doesn’t have to do much to hit value, and he has the upside to smash it. He and the Friars are -107 favorites, and the game’s over/under total is only eight runs.
Chris Iannetta (ARI): $3,600 vs. Marlins
Iannetta is one of two Diamondbacks featured, and his price tag is a steal given his excellence against southpaws. Since 2015, he has a .373 OBP, .162 ISO, and 118 wRC+ against left-handed pitchers. He’s attached to a game over/under total of 10 runs, and the Diamondbacks are -171 favorites in their hitter-friendly park.
Logan Morrison (TB): $4,000 @ Orioles
Paul Goldschmidt will be extremely popular facing a southpaw at Chase Field, and if you move down from Stras to Cole, bumping up to Goldy is a fine move at first base. Having said that, LoMo is a steal in a plus matchup against a righty on the road — in a hitter-friendly park no less.
Jeremy Hellickson has ceded a .507 SLG, .341 wOBA, and 16 homers to 313 left-handed batters faced this year, and since 2015, Morrison has ripped righties on the road to the tune of a .362 OBP, .297 ISO, 148 wRC+, 44.0% FB%, and 42.7% Hard%.
Kiké Hernandez (LAD): $3,000 vs. Giants
First of all, this isn’t a BvP suggestion, but be aware that he’ll get a sizable ownership bump from those who do buy into it. Hernandez is featured because he’s grossly underpriced for a guy who smashes southpaws. Since 2015, he has a .365 OBP, .267 ISO, and 142 wRC+ against lefties.
Matt Olson (OAK): $5,300 vs. Rangers
Olson didn’t take long to get back to mashing taters. After seeing his five-game homer streak come to a close on Thursday, he reached the seats on Friday.
Opposing righty Miguel Gonzalez has been very giving to the 315 lefties he’s faced this year surrendering a .357 OBP, .530 SLG, .372 wOBA, and 11 homers. Olson’s an excellent option tonight, and while I didn’t feature any of his teammates, I do like a few of them who fit in nicely with the others included in this piece.
J.D. Martinez (ARI): $5,500 vs. Marlins
Martinez rounds out today’s picks. Since 2015, he’s tattooed left-handed pitchers for a .389 OBP, .310 ISO, and 162 wRC+. This year, the slugging outfielder has been borderline unstoppable when facing a southpaw, and he’s ripped off a .456 OBP, .500 ISO, and 229 wRC+ against them with an unbelievable 54.7% Hard%.