DraftKings MLB Lineup Advice: Wednesday (9/13)
Twelve games greet us for the main slate tonight, with the weather not looking to play a big role. Be sure to keep an eye on the forecast as the day rolls along as this could impact several situations. Let’s take a look at some top plays for DraftKings.
Weather Situations to Monitor:
- Marlins @ Phillies
Max Scherzer (WAS): $13,400 vs. ATL
This recommendation is more about necessity rather than matchup, as the Braves have been markedly better against right-handed pitching over the past month (seventh in wRC+). They also don’t strikeout much (16.57% last 30 days), which does put a bit of a damper on Scherzer’s upside. That in mind, Scherzer is one of the best strikeout pitchers in the league so it’s tough to completely eschew him, especially tonight.
Ervin Santana (MIN): $10,900 vs. SD
Owners will want to proceed with caution in regards to Santana, as he continues to sport some peripheral statistics that could cause reason for concern. His xFIP is nearly a run and a half higher than his ERA, with his BABIP just .242. For a mediocre strikeout pitcher (7.24 K/9), a strand rate of 78.4% coupled with the other metrics suggest some good fortune has buoyed Santana. However, I think there’s some merit to targeting him in good matchups, and this certainly applies. San Diego continues to strikeout at a high clip, while they have fared poorly against right-handed pitching. The White Sox fit a similar profile, and Santana closed out August with consecutive strong outings against them, so he could be in line for a repeat showing tonight.
Yu Darvish (LAD): $10,300 @ SF
While the above two options are fine to utilize, I’m more apt to gravitate toward Darvish tonight. Not only is this a plus matchup in a great pitching environment, his xFIP (4.25) suggests he could be in line for more success moving forward. We know he possesses strong strikeout upside (10.11 K/9), which fits the matchup against a below average squad in the Giants who strikeout around league average against right-handed pitching.
Marcus Stroman (TOR): $7,700 vs. BAL
On the cheaper side of things, give Stroman a look tonight against a scuffling Baltimore offense. After a scorching stretch, the Orioles have cooled off considerably against right-handed pitching, ranking 24th over the past month and dead last over the last two weeks. While Stroman doesn’t possess elite strikeout stuff (7.47 K/9), he does a great job generating ground balls (61.2%) which helps to suppress power. He’s held opponents to two earned runs or less in five out of his last seven starts, and he should be a strong candidate to make it six out of eight tonight.
Mariners @ Rangers Game Stack
This contest sports a high game total of 11 runs, as each team is expected to produce offensively tonight. The Mariners will face lefty Martin Perez, who sports a .359 wOBA allowed to right-handed hitters this season along with a 34.8% hard contact rate and 17 home runs surrendered. Cruz (.367 wOBA/.179 ISO), Segura (.331 wOBA), Haniger (.203 ISO) and Valencia (.205 ISO) all sport solid numbers against lefties and represent a fine stack as a result.
On the Texas side of things, Mike Leake has been susceptible to lefties (.339 wOBA), but he’s not exactly lights out against same-handed hitters either (.302 wOBA, 34.1% hard contact). Andrus, DeShields, and Mazara are all rolling right now at the plate, while Choo benefits from a prime spot in the order. Gallo brings massive power upside to the table and rounds out the Rangers’ targets tonight.
Arenado takes the cake with this matchup, as he sports a whopping .538 wOBA/.448 ISO against lefties this season. Patrick Corbin has allowed a .350 wOBA to right-handed hitters, while he’s dished out 17 home runs on the heels of a 32% hard contact rate. Story is a boom or bust option due to his propensity to strikeout a lot, but he too possesses big power upside against lefties (.418 ISO). I originally had this tabbed as ‘Rockies RHB’ against Corbin, but it’s worth noting that Blackmon has been no slouch against lefties this season, as he sports a .410 wOBA/.232 ISO this season against southpaws.
Justin Turner (3B): $4,200 @ Giants vs. Matt Moore
Turner is known as a strong hitter against same-handed pitching, but it’s worth noting that he’s done well against lefties this season. He’s produced a .487 wOBA/.336 ISO against left-handed pitching this year, and he will face a mediocre one in Matt Moore tonight. Moore is allowing a lot of hard contact to right-handed hitters (35%), and he’s served up 18 home runs as well. Nolan Arenado should be popular at the position, which makes Turner a solid pivot if you want to play the ownership game.
Mike Trout (OF): $5,600 vs. Mike Fiers
There’s no discount in Trout’s salary, but there’s no denying the matchup against Mike Fiers. Over the last two weeks, Trout is hitting .324 with two home runs, 15 runs scored and five stolen bases, which is the type of production we’ve come to expect from the superstar. Don’t overlook Trout when constructing your lineups tonight.
J.D. Martinez (OF): $5,500 vs. German Marquez
How’s this for hot: Over his last 10 games, Martinez has clubbed nine home runs and driven in 18 runs, while hitting .455 over that span. He’s the hottest hitter in baseball over the last two weeks, so fade him at your own risk.
Batter vs. Pitcher
DJ LeMahieu (2B): $4,100 @ Diamondbacks vs. Patrick Corbin
Back to Arizona we go, where LeMahieu takes the batter versus pitcher honors tonight. In 36 career at-bats against Patrick Corbin, LeMahieu has 13 hits (.382 AVG) with two home runs. LeMahieu continues to hit for a high average, and I expect that trend to continue against a pitcher who he’s succeeded against in the past.