DraftKings MLB Lineup Advice: Wednesday (9/27)
11 games are on tap for the main slate tonight, with the weather not looking to play a big role. We are in the waning days of the regular season, so it’s important to keep an eye on playoff scenarios, not only for those still looking to cement their status but also teams that mostly cannot change their spot heading into next week.
This is an interesting slate, as pitching falls off a cliff after a couple of expensive options. This will force owners to make some tough decisions, so let’s try and sift through the mess and take a look at some top plays for DraftKings.
Weather Situations to Monitor:
Luis Severino (NYY): $12,400 vs. TB
The Yankees know they are at least hosting a wild card game, but they have their sights set on catching their rival for the division lead. Luis Severino will be sent to the hill to keep his team in that divisional race, and he will face a team who strikes out above league average against right-handed pitching. Severino, who was hit by a batting practice ball on Saturday, possesses nice strikeout upside to begin with and his opponent only boosts his stock. Severino is currently a -253 home favorite, with the Rays carrying a low implied team total of 3.13 runs, making him an excellent building block tonight for all formats.
Rich Hill (LAD): $11,100 vs. SD
Despite locking up home-field advantage throughout the National League playoffs, the Dodgers still have something to play for in the final days, as they look to hold off the Indians for the best record in baseball. There’s a bit of concern in the matchup, as the Padres have been markedly better against lefties over the past month and two weeks, with their strikeout rate plummeting as well. Hill still has solid strikeout upside, but with the Padres’ recent play, I’d reserve him for tournament play only tonight.
Sean Newcomb (ATL): $7,800 @ NYM
Newcomb has been better with his control as of late, which has coincided with him being a more effective pitcher. He will face a Mets’ offense who has fared fairly well against lefties, but they do whiff at an above average rate.
While Newcomb has been unable to finish the sixth inning in his last six starts, he still possesses nice upside due to his strikeout ability. In tournaments, I think he makes for a high upside start as he looks to close out his rookie season on a high note.
Matt Andriese has allowed a ton of hard contact to hitters on both sides of the plate this season (38.4% vs. RHB/42.2% vs. LHB), while he’s allowed a .386 wOBA to same-handed hitters. This doesn’t completely scratch the Yankees’ lefties off the list, however, as that kind of hard contact cannot sustain low numbers (.272 wOBA) over the long haul.
One look at Andriese’s profile confirms this, as his BABIP to lefties sits at .255, which suggests that hard contact has somehow not backfired. The Yankees are rolling right now, so don’t be afraid to employ a full stack tonight.
Robert Gsellman isn’t a very good pitcher, and while he’s struggled with hitters on both sides of the plate, I think I’d prefer a mini stack with some Atlanta lefties. Albies and Freeman aren’t hitting for a high average right now, but they both have two home runs over the past two weeks, which is an area to attack Gsellman.
Inciarte continues to hit, and in fact, he became the first Atlanta player to record 200 of them in a season since 1996. The Braves will likely fly under the radar as this isn’t an exciting pick, but I don’t mind a few of them as a means to get some low-owned players.
The Brewers have been rolling as of late offensively, and they stand to keep things rolling tonight against a mediocre pitcher in Homer Bailey. Bailey doesn’t strikeout many hitters, walks too many and has struggled with hitters from both sides of the plate (.412 wOBA vs. RHB/.357 wOBA vs. LHB). Arcia (.355 AVG), Thames (.345 AVG), Braun (.311 AVG), Walker (.303 AVG) and Santana (five HR) have all been hot in particular over the past two weeks, so don’t be afraid to employ a full stack at home tonight.
Mike Trout (OF): $5,500 @ White Sox vs. Reynaldo Lopez
Trout will likely be sad to leave Chicago, as he has hit two home runs, driven in four runs, scored three runs, taken three walks, and tacked on a steal for good measure. While he scuffled at the beginning of the month, there was no way the best player in baseball was going to stay down for long. He’s in a good park for right-handed power and will be facing a young pitcher, so look for another big line tonight.
Josh Donaldson (3B): $3,900 @ Red Sox vs. Rick Porcello
I had to check multiple sources and outlets on this one, but unless my eyes are fooling me, Donaldson appears to be about $2,000 too cheap. The veteran slugger has only hit eight home runs (two last night off of Chris Sale) over the past two weeks, while hitting .392, with a .456 OBP and a .510 ISO. It doesn’t get much better than that, so take the free square and move along tonight.
Batter vs. Pitcher
Ryan Braun (OF): $4,600 vs. Homer Bailey
Back to Milwaukee we go, where Braun takes the batter versus pitcher honors tonight. Not only is he rolling at the plate right now, but he also has a good history against Homer Bailey.
In 44 career at-bats, Braun has 16 hits (.364 AVG) with four home runs. He’s a great piece as part of a stack, but he also would be a fine standalone play in tournaments as well.