DraftKings MLB Value Plays: Monday (9/11)

by Josh Dalley | @JoshDalley72
Sep 11, 2017

Welcome back to value plays for this Monday. We have an eight-game slate this evening with a clear-cut top ace in Carlos Carrasco $13,200 and about as large of a favorite as you can get (-356) at home for the red-hot Indians (currently on an 18-game win streak) opposite Myles Jaye and the post-fire sale Tigers. First, let’s not get too cute today and simply plug him in to start off all of our lineups. Now that you only need one arm, here are some value plays to help out in cash games and GPPs for every position today.

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Pitcher

Brandon Woodruff (MIL): $7,100 vs. PIT
Woodruff is a home favorite (-163) against the Pirates who rank either last or second-to-last in MLB across all offensive metrics versus RHP since July. Although Woodruff’s price has escalated into the $7,000 range, he’s still a solid play in cash games with nice K upside and a pristine matchup.

Kenta Maeda (LAD): $9,900 @ SF
Maeda is a heavy road favorite (-201) against the Giants. San Fran is just slightly ahead of Pittsburgh in all offensive metrics against RHP since July, ranking either 27th or 28th. He’s more expensive than Woodruff and the Dodgers are reeling of late and ownership may be lower as a result in GPP.

Catcher

Miguel Montero (TOR): $3,000 vs. BAL
Montero has the platoon advantage at home versus the always volatile Ubaldo Jimenez. He should hit sixth for the Jays, who currently sit at a 5.3 implied team total. He’s an affordable way to get some exposure in a good matchup. He’s also sporting elevated StatCast and batted ball data over the last two weeks. He’s an excellent GPP play.

Salvador Perez (KC): $3,500 vs. CWS
Perez has been crushing righties all year, and his price remains modest. He’ll face Reynaldo Lopez to start out and the Royals are projected to score 5.2 runs. Sal also has elevated batted ball data over the last couple weeks and his 24 HRs this season say the power is real. He’s an excellent cash game play if you have the cap room for him.

First Base

Seattle @ Texas
This game offers the best value plays at 1B by far. On the Seattle side, Danny Valencia, $3,400, is known as a lefty masher and this price is excellent for a guy that can absolutely get it done in Texas. For Texas, I like both Mike Napoli $3,300 and Joey Gallo $3,700 to get into the act as this game is projected to be the highest scoring of the slate. Napoli or Valencia are in play in both formats, whereas I always like Gallo for tournaments. If you want to play both Napoli and Gallo in a stack, Gallo also carries 3B eligibility.

Second Base

Yoan Moncada (CWS): $3,200 @ KC
Moncada has been showing some excellent skills lately, but we care about the bat in DFS and his batted ball data has been outstanding recently. Even though he’s only been in the bigs a short time, he’s already shown an affinity for picking on right handers. He should be batting second, and I like him enough to play in cash and GPPs.

Brandon Drury (ARI): $3,500 vs. COL
Drury has been swinging a hot bat recently and features higher batted ball and StatCast data as well. Combine those two factors, then add in that he’ll be at home in Chase Field where the D-Back have a 5.3 run implied total and it makes him my favorite GPP play on the whole slate. Don’t be surprised if he goes deep tonight.

Third Base

Mike Moustakas (KC): $4,000 vs. CWS
If he’s $4k or less and facing a below-average RHP, Moose will be in this article. That’s the case today, and I’ll recommend installing him as your cash game 3B. He has 28 of his 36 HRs versus righties this season, evidenced by his stellar .285 ISO. The .367 wOBA & 127 wRC+ are also strong. He’s crushed all year and should tonight.

Todd Frazier (NYY): $3,800 @ TB
Not the best value for a guy batting 9th, but Todd Father has his swing back, displaying some progression in StatCast data and very sharp spikes in batted ball data in the last couple weeks. He’s always in play in GPPs with multi-HR upside and faces Jake Odorizzi, a reverse-splits pitcher who gives up plenty of hard contact.

Shortstop

Elvis Andrus (TEX): $3,900 vs. SEA
Andrus had a career year in 2016, especially from a power standpoint, and that trend is continuing this season as well. Andrus has a stunning .234 ISO against southpaws this season, by far a career high. The .359 wOBA and 120 wRC+ suggest he’s a safe cash game choice for your lineups as he offers more consistency at the plate.

Trevor Story (COL): $3,600 @ ARI
Since last week’s value plays article, Story has had a hit in five of his last six games. Today, he gets Zack Greinke, a pitcher that he’s had a ridiculous amount of success against, especially at Chase Field. In 21 ABs dating back to last April, Story has taken Greinke deep four times. That’s 20% of the time! He’s a prime GPP play tonight.

Outfield

Royals OF vs. Reynaldo Lopez (CWS):
For the second Monday in a row, I really like all the OF in Kansas City. The matchup is excellent as we mentioned above, but both Lorenzo Cain and Melky Cabrera are $3,500 each and will get a top-three lineup spot. You can safely use either of them in cash games, or in a stack. I’ve pretty much mentioned everyone on the team at this point, but Brandon Moss, $2,800, is a sneaky GPP option with tremendous power upside. You should include him in said Royals stack.

Brewers OF vs. Steven Brault (PIT):
In 2016, Brault was really bad against RH bats and he’s only getting worse, meaning all the Milwaukee OF bats are in play. If you can’t afford Ryan Braun, $4,600, you can still feel good rolling out bargain-priced pieces like Hernan Perez and Domingo Santana at $3,800 each, or moving to Keon Broxton for just $2,800. At that price, Broxton is almost in play in cash, but likely batting seventh, he’s more of a GPP flier with SB upside and some pop. Perez also has 3B eligibility, so if you wanted to be contrarian, using him there in place of Travis Shaw could be a tournament-winning move.

Shin-Soo Choo (TEX): $3,900 vs. SEA
Choo has elite increases in his batted ball data over the last two weeks. The lefty-on-lefty matchup may be enough to scare off a lot of people today, making him a fantastic leverage play in GPPs. He hasn’t shown his power against lefties, especially compared to last year, but he’s getting on base, with hits in five of his last six games.

Chris Taylor (LAD): $3,700 @ SF
Taylor has been a spark plug for L.A. all year. He’s done damage against all pitchers, but his power is mostly versus righties, with 15 of 19 HRs coming against them. His .369 wOBA and 131 wRC+ against RHP in 2017 is encouraging as he was hitting well the last two weeks, having a stretch with 10 hits in a 12 -game span.

Adam Frazier (PIT): $3,100 @ MIL
I only gave you one play below $3k, and a couple just above that so I’ll toss Frazier out as the only Pirate I’d recommend today. He had big spikes in batted ball data the past two weeks before his hamstring injury. Just activated Friday, he promptly got a pinch hit and then went yard Saturday and looks like he hasn’t missed a beat.

Yandy Diaz $3,300 & Tyler Naquin (CLE): $2,700 vs. DET
Scraping the bottom of the bargain bin, we can get some exposure to the potent Indians lineup here. The Tigers bullpen is really bad! Even worse than when they actually had good players. If you’re struggling to get Carrasco or pricey bats in your lineup, these guys may offer the salary cap savings to make it work. Diaz is also 3B eligible.

Check out today’s MLB Moonshot contest at DraftKings >>

Josh Dalley is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, follow himĀ @JoshDalley72.


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