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DraftKings NFL GPP Lineup Advice: Week 3

DraftKings NFL GPP Lineup Advice: Week 3

This week’s GPP advice for the featured NFL slate includes a stack that’s not from one of the high/over under total games and should be a bit lower owned as a result. Also included among the touted plays are a pair of teammates who I don’t necessarily suggest using together, but I do like individually due to a desirable matchup and the potential for increased usage in the aftermath of an injury to a key member of the offense. Finally, I fully expect a certain pass-catching back tied to a potential high-scoring shootout to be quite popular, and that helps make his backfield mate a nifty pivot as a contrarian selection.

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Carson Wentz (QB – PHI): $5,900 vs. Giants
Zach Ertz (TE – PHI): $5,000 vs. Giants
Wentz opened up his rookie campaign like a man on fire, but he had some hiccups in the middle of the season before flashing his potential to close last year. It’s probably not entirely coincidental that he’s played better when tackle Lane Johnson has been on the field, as you can read a little bit more about here. Wentz’s single-game high of 364 yards came against his Week 3 opponent, the Giants, in Week 9 last year. He did throw two interception and zero touchdowns that game, and he also struggled the second time the two teams played and was held to only 152 yards passing, one touchdown, and one interception, but he chipped in with 27 yards on the ground to help take a little bit of the sting out of the low passing-yardage total. He’s started off the year with a pair of 300-plus yard, two-touchdown passing efforts, and he’s added 43 yards on the ground. The Giants secondary has some talented members, but Football Outsiders (FO) ranks them just 24th defending the pass this year. They’re also especially susceptible to being torched by tight ends ranking 20th defending the position this year, per FO. Last year, they ranked 26th defending tight ends, so it’s unlikely their rough start is a small sample fluke. Through two games, the Giants have allowed the sixth most DraftKings points per game to tight ends, according to Pro-Football Reference. They’ve allowed 13 receptions on just 15 targets for 104 yards to tight ends, and in addition to the sky-high catch rate allowed, they’ve also coughed up a pair of scores to the position.

Ertz is going to be a handful for the Giants. This year among tight ends, he ranks second in targets (18), tied for second in receptions (13), first in receiving yards (190), and sixth among tight ends with a minimum of three receptions this year with 14.62 yards per reception. Ertz is grossly underpriced and will be chalky, but a Wentz/Ertz stack probably won’t be as popular as some such as Matt Ryan/Julio Jones, Derek Carr/Michael Crabtree (or Amari Cooper), and Cam Newton/Kelvin Benjamin, among others.

Christian McCaffrey (RB – CAR): $6,100 vs. Saints
Devin Funchess (WR – CAR): $4,200 vs. Saints
Seguing from Cam/Benjamin to this duo seems fitting. Greg Olsen broke his foot last week and is on IR, and that opens up the door to more touches for others in the offense. Benjamin is the unquestioned top option in the passing attack, but I expect both McCaffrey and Funchess to see some of the vacated touches. I wouldn’t advise using both together, though, you can and I wouldn’t fault you for getting multiple cracks at the soft Saints’ defense. Through two games, McCaffrey has out-snapped Jonathan Stewart 90 to 54, and the rookie back has played no less than 43 snaps in a game. He’s second on the team in targets (12), third in receiving yards (72), and first in receptions (nine) while adding 57 yards rushing on 21 carries. As an added bonus, he serves as Carolina’s punt returner which opens up another potential avenue to reaching pay dirt. FO ranks the Saints dead last defending the pass this year and 29th defending running backs in the passing game. New Orleans has allowed the second most DraftKings points per game to running backs, and they’ve been torched by backs as receivers having allowed the second most targets (22), tying for the first most receptions (19), and yielding the most receiving yards (185) to running backs while also coughing up one touchdown reception. They’ve been no great shakes defending them as runners, either, ranking 17th defending the run at FO. The host Panthers are 6-point favorites with an implied team total of 26.5 points, according to Pinnacle. The game script should play out well for both McCaffrey and Stewart, but I expect McCaffrey’s receiving prowess to help push the Panthers to a sizable lead. I’m mixing McCaffrey in at running back with Le’Veon Bell and Ty Montgomery, and I even have one roster on which I’ve dropped Julio Jones in favor of using all three backs together.

As for Funchess, the former second-round pick has been ho-hum at best in his career. He hasn’t made a big impact in the passing attack, but he’s coming off of a respectable 4-68-0 line on six targets against the Bills. Funchess is also a player who was identified by his offensive coordinator as someone who will probably see increased targets. The 23-year-old receiver has led the Panthers’ wideouts in snaps played each of the first two games with 45 and 57, respectively. At 6-foot-5 and 230 pounds, it wouldn’t shock me to see him used similarly to Olsen. The 32-year-old has one inch and 24 pounds on the young receiver, but Funchess is big by wide receiver standards and makes for a large target for Cam. FO ranks the Saints 30th defending No. 2 receivers, and they’ve yielded the second most DraftKings points per game to wideouts, per Pro-Football Reference.

Ameer Abdullah (RB – DET): $4,700 vs. Falcons
Atlanta’s ineptitude defending running backs as pass catchers is no secret. Last year, they allowed the most targets (141), receptions (109), receiving yards (870), and tied for the most touchdown receptions (six) allowed to running backs. This year, it has been more of the same with them having surrendered the most targets (26), tying for the most receptions (19), the fourth most receiving yards (143), and tying for the most touchdown receptions (two) allowed to running backs. Gamers are going to flock to Theo Riddick ($5,100), especially those gamers who think the Lions will be stuck playing catch up. Detroit is only a 3-point underdog, though, and the Falcons’ 166 yards allowed rushing to running backs that ranks in the middle of the pack hides the fact they’ve been gashed for 5.4 yards per carry. Abdullah has been leaned on heavily early with 15 carries and three receptions in the first game and 17 carries in the second. He was solid on the ground against the Giants rushing for 86 yards, and he’s not a total dud as a pass catcher. In his rookie season, he caught 25 of 38 targets for 183 yards, amounting to per-game averages of 1.6 receptions per game and 11.4 yards receiving per game. The 24-year-old was also targeted four times in Week 1, and lost in his zero target performance in Week 2 is that he had an 18-yard reception on Detroit’s final drive of the first half wiped out by a holding penalty. If the Lions can keep the game close — perhaps leaning on the running game to keep Atlanta’s high-powered offense off of the field — Abdullah could be in line for another 15 or more carries while chipping in some receptions, too. I wouldn’t advise overloading on Abdullah, but he’s a nice contrarian option that I have on a few rosters.

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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.

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