The 2017 NFL season is finally here! There’s quite a bit of unknown in terms of what to expect early on in the season, but let’s try our best to work off of what we do know in an effort to build some winning lineups. While it’s important to always keep your gameplay in check, especially early, this is the part of the season where the biggest edge can be had against the field. Let’s take a look at some top plays for Week 1 on DraftKings.
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Quarterbacks
Tom Brady (NE): $7,600 vs. KC
The Patriots’ offense figures to be even more tough to decipher in terms of who will produce now that Julian Edelman is out of the picture, but there’s always one constant and that’s Tom Brady. While this game features contrasting styles in terms of pace, I think the Patriots ultimately win out and impose their will in this one. The Chiefs primarily play man defense, which allows a precise quarterback like Brady to exploit potentially favorable matchups. All in all, there’s no discount in Brady’s tag, but he still checks in as a top three fantasy producer for me this week.
Aaron Rodgers (GB): $7,000 vs. SEA
Rodgers and the Packers have an implied team total of 27 points as they face the Seahawks at home in what is expected to be a relatively close game. Rodgers has fared well against Seattle when playing in Green Bay over the past two seasons, having scored 22.3 DKP in 2015 and 21.2 DKP last season. The Packers got things turned around in the second half of the season last year when not coincidentally, Rodgers had a stretch for the ages. I expect nothing different this season, as the Packers seem to go only when Rodgers does. This is certainly a stiff test at home, but I love Rodgers’ upside for the price this week.
Carson Palmer (ARI): $6,000 @ DET
Shifting our attention to Detroit, Palmer sticks out as a strong option in tournaments this week. First and foremost, Palmer looked healthy for the most part this preseason, which is crucial to this offense. He offers big upside against one of the worst pass defenses in football, all while being in a dome in what should be a close game. Palmer still has plenty of weapons at his disposal, including uber-talented David Johnson, who Coach Bruce Arians wants to force feed even more than last season. This includes his work in the passing game, which only stands to benefit Palmer, as Johnson can take one to the house at any time.
Running Backs
David Johnson (ARI): $9,400 @ DET
You likely cannot go wrong when deciding between Le’Veon Bell or David Johnson most weeks, and this week appears no different. I’ll take the small discount and go with Johnson this week, as he holds tremendous value on a full point per reception site, especially against the Lions. Not only did Detroit struggle against the pass altogether, but they weren’t any good against running backs that caught passes either last year. As I noted earlier, all signs point to Johnson getting all of the touches he can handle, so ride the wave early and often.
LeSean McCoy (BUF): $8,200 vs. NYJ
There’s no value in McCoy’s price, but I think he could go a bit overlooked this week as he is kind of in “no-man’s land” this week. He’s not in the same tier as David Johnson or Le’Veon Bell, but he’s also not priced down in the Melvin Gordon or Jordan Howard range. While I don’t think the Bills will run nearly as much as they did last year due to a regime change, it’s not like they will become a pass-heavy squad either. In fact, I still think they rely on McCoy plenty, but it sounds like he will be involved more in the passing game, which is a boost to his floor. The Jets are likely going to be historically bad this year, so don’t be afraid to pick on them from all angles.
Todd Gurley (LAR): $6,000 vs. IND
The Colts are not a threatening defense, and I anticipate the Rams to be able to take advantage of this matchup in Week 1, with Gurley the featured threat. Sean McVay should be a boost to this offense, with Gurley hopefully being involved in the passing game some more due to Lance Dunbar’s injury. The Rams are home favorites due to Andrew Luck being out this week, so I look for plenty of touches early and often for Gurley, who is looking to bounce back in 2017.
Wide Receivers
Julio Jones (ATL): $8,500 @ CHI
A lot of the high-priced plays are typically chalky as well most weeks, but it’s OK to have some chalk options as long as you identify some lower-owned plays as well. Jones figures to see an uptick in targets this season, which is tantalizing to think about considering he ranked 10th in that metric last season. The reason I think this is important to point out is that Atlanta didn’t throw the ball a ton last year (27th in pass plays per game). Steve Sarkisian figures to boost the passing numbers across the board for the Falcons, which only means more chances for the electric Jones to produce. When healthy, Jones is essentially matchup proof, so don’t shy away from him this week against the Bears.
Pierre Garcon (SF): $5,300 vs. CAR
Garcon figures to see all the targets he can handle this season, as he reunites with his former offensive coordinator, Kyle Shanahan. The 49ers have a talented, yet inexperienced defense so I don’t expect them to be able to turn that around overnight, which should lead to them playing catchup more often than not. Garcon was given a boatload of guaranteed money, so don’t think he won’t see tons of volume this season. Garcon is a top 10 play at the position in terms of value and a top 20 play in terms of overall projected output, which I think makes him a great tournament play in Week 1.
Kendall Wright (CHI): $3,200 vs. ATL
It’s never a bad idea to target cheap receivers who are part of a team who should be trailing in the second half (or sooner), as this likely creates plenty of volume. With Cameron Meredith out, I look for that volume to be heavily concentrated on Kevin White and Kendall Wright against the Falcons. Wright checks in as my top per dollar value this week at the position, as he obviously doesn’t need to do much to pay off that salary, while the savings create all sorts of roster flexibility. Wright is reunited with Dowell Loggains in Chicago, who he was coached by in 2013 while with the Titans, so that certainly doesn’t hurt his case as he seemed to thrive during that time.
Tight Ends
Travis Kelce (KC): $5,600 @ NE
It’s widely known that Bill Belichick is a master at identifying a weapon on the opposing team and neutralizing it. While there’s some risk involved that it could be Kelce, I think it’s a risk worth taking at this price. The Chiefs are healthy underdogs for the Thursday night game, but I think if they are going to muster up any kind of scoring, Kelce will be involved somehow.
Zach Ertz (PHI): $3,500 @ WAS
The Eagles have a couple of new toys offensively, but Ertz remains a viable target in the middle of the field for Carson Wentz. At this price, Ertz is my top value play at the position, while remaining inside the top 10 in terms of overall expected output. The Redskins struggled with tight ends last season, and this could be a great chance to pluck Ertz at a very good price before it rises if he produces as expected.
Defense/Special Teams
Buffalo Bills (BUF): $3,900 vs. NYJ
I’d anticipate the Bills being the highest owned option at the position this week, as will likely be the case for whoever faces the Jets this season. The total of this game sits around 40.5, with the Bills nearly double digit home favorites. In cash games, this is probably the direction to go, but don’t force it in tournaments.
Denver Broncos (DEN): $3,600 vs. SD
I’m usually a proponent of finding a cheaper option at defense in tournaments, but I’m hoping that enough owners forget about the late game on Monday night, especially with the Bills likely attracting plenty of ownership. Philip Rivers was second in interception percentage last season, behind only Ryan Fitzpatrick, as he threw 21 picks on 578 attempts (3.6%). Rivers has always had that gunslinger mentality, which is perfect when trying to identify a fantasy defense who can have some upside in the turnover department.
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Adam Sutton is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Adam, follow him @DraftStars_Adam. You can find more of Adam’s work at DraftStars.net
