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FanDuel NFL Lineup Advice: Week 3 (Thur/Sun/Mon)

FanDuel NFL Lineup Advice: Week 3 (Thur/Sun/Mon)

There’s a game in London on Sunday morning, and that means there’s a bonus game included on this particular slate, bringing the total to three extra games from the featured slate. The over/under totals in those contests in order of kickoff time are 40 points, 39 points, and 47 points, according to Pinnacle. The biggest spread in those contests is only 3.5 points. The defenses added to the player pool are arguably the most interesting piece of the action in the Thursday/Sunday/Monday slate, but Ezekiel Elliott has bounce-back appeal after being held to eight yards rushing and 14 yards receiving in Denver, and a certain value back gets some love on the roster below. The following roster is built with cash games in mind, but it has ample GPP upside to warrant usage in those contests, too.

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Quarterback

Derek Carr (OAK): $8,400 @ Redskins
Usually, it’s common practice to spend down at quarterback on cash game rosters, but the viable quarterbacks in the bargain range aren’t that much cheaper than Carr, so I’ll gladly take his bankable points and high ceiling as this team’s signal caller. The Raiders travel across the country to face the Redskins in Washington, but they won’t have to deal with a 1 PM ET start time since the game is this week’s Sunday Night Football contest, mitigating concerns about a sluggish start. Oakland has the biggest implied team total at 28.5 points, barely eclipsing New England’s 28.25 implied team total. The high over/under total and spread of just three points suggests the game will be a shootout, and that’s ideal for keeping Carr active from start to finish. Carr’s off to a fast start this year ranking third in Passer Rating (126.5), sixth in Yards Per Pass Attempt (8.2), fifth in Adjusted Yards Per Pass Attempt (9.87), third in Adjusted Net Yards Per Pass Attempt (9.35) and completion percentage (75.0%), and tied for third in passing touchdowns (five), according to Pro-Football Reference. He’s only passed for 492 yards, but that’s partly a product of passing for just 230 yards on the way to routing the Jets last week. Washington surrendered 307 yards passing and a pair of touchdowns to Carson Wentz in the season opener and then allowed fellow sophomore quarterback Jared Goff to scorch them for 9.0 yards per pass attempt. Carr’s a more accomplished passer than either quarterback the Redskins have faced, and he’s armed with better weapons, too. Carr’s in a great spot to shine in the lights of a primetime game and pile up points for the daily gamers who use him.

Running Back

Le’Veon Bell (PIT): $8,700 @ Bears
Bell’s been held out of the end zone in the first two games of the year, but he got back to being a usage monster in Week 2 with 27 carries for 87 yards and four receptions for four yards. The usage will lead to big games, and that starts this week against the Bears. The Steelers are 7.5-point favorites which is excellent for Bell’s outlook as a rusher, though, as such an integral part of the passing attack, he’s game-script proof anyway. There’s no reason to over think this pick as your lead runner on a cash games roster.

Javorius Allen (BAL): $5,700 @ Jaguars (London)
I alluded to Allen in the intro, and here he is. Terrance West was limited in Week 2 with a soft-tissue injury, and Buck took advantage of the added opportunities rushing for 66 yards on 14 carries while adding a 5-35-1 line through the air. If West is out this week, Allen’s an absolute steal at his salary, but after rushing for 71 yards on 21 carries sharing the backfield with West in Week 1, there’s a good chance Allen hits value even if he shares a backfield with a less-than-100% West. The Ravens are 3.5-point favorites in the game in London, adding yet another check in the pros column for using Allen. Regardless, his involvement in the passing game will give him a chance to hit or exceed value even if things don’t go according to the odds.

Wide Receiver

Julio Jones (ATL): $9,300 @ Lions
After being held to a 4-66-0 line on five targets by the Bears in Week 1, he bounced back for 108 yards on five grabs in the Sunday Night Football game in Week 2. Matt Ryan threw his way nine times in that contest. The Falcons head to Ford Field to play the Lions, and the visitors are 3-point favorites with an implied total of 26.5 points. Jones will represent the greatest challenge the secondary has faced this year, and I’m not ready to forget that they yielded the 10th most FanDuel points per game to wide receivers last year after just two games this year against Carson Palmer and Eli Manning. Jones is worth the sizable salary commitment.

Kelvin Benjamin (CAR): $6,600 vs. Saints
Cam Newton hasn’t been sharp in the first two games of the season after a severely limited preseason following shoulder surgery, but the Saints should help him shake off more of his rust. Newton targeted Benjamin five times in Week 1, and the receiver hauled in just one of those targets for 25 yards. He was much better in Week 2 securing six of his eight targets for 77 yards. Greg Olsen suffered a broken foot last week, and that leaves Benjamin shouldering the load as the top pass-catching option. It could open the door for more opportunities for others, too, but Olsen’s absence should assure Benjamin a steady diet of targets every week. The Saints continue to be a train wreck defensively, and this year, they’ve been torched by enemy receivers for 28 receptions, 461 yards, three touchdowns, and the second most FanDuel points per game, per Pro-Football Reference. The game’s over/under total is 47 points, and the Panthers are 6-point favorites with an implied team total of 26.5 points.

Davante Adams (GB): $6,800 vs. Bengals
Adams broke out last year, and he’s been frequently targeted by Aaron Rodgers to start this year with 17 that he’s parlayed into 11 receptions for 146 yards and a touchdown. Jordy Nelson left the Week 2 contest with a quad injury, and he’s “50-50” to play this week, per a tweet from ESPN’s Adam Schefter. Randall Cobb also came out of that game banged and had a precautionary MRI on Monday, he’s considered day-to-day. Adams becomes a must-use option if either or both Nelson and Cobb are out, but he’s still a strong play if both are active since they’re each clearly not completely healthy. With everyone seemingly healthy in the season opener against Seattle’s talented defense, Adams was targeted seven times and caught three balls for 47 yards. Cincinnati’s secondary isn’t on par with Seattle’s, and everyone isn’t seemingly healthy in the Packers’ pass-catching corps now.

Tight End

Jack Doyle (IND): $5,300 vs. Browns
In GPPs, gamers can swap in Jared Cook ($5,200) if they wish to have a stack partner with Carr. In cash games, Doyle’s the apple of my eye in the sub-$6,000 territory at tight end (Zach Ertz is a strong play at $6,500 for those saving money at one of the previously highlighted positions). Jacoby Brissett closed the Colts’ Week 1 contest and started their Week 2 overtime loss to the Cardinals, and Doyle was the primary beneficiary. The tight end led the team in receptions (eight) and receiving yards (79) while tying for second in targets (eight) last week. There’s no reason to think they’ll neglect him against the Browns. Football Outsiders (FO) ranks the Browns 23rd defending tight ends this year, and Cleveland has allowed the second most targets (22), most receptions (19), third most receiving yards (162), and are tied for the most touchdowns allowed (two) to tight ends this year, resulting in the second most FanDuel points allowed to the position this season.

Kicker

Dan Bailey (DAL): $4,700 @ Cardinals
Bailey plays on Monday night, and he’s an affordable kicking option who has a couple things working in his favor. First, University of Phoenix Stadium in Arizona has a retractable roof, so he won’t have to deal with mother nature. Second, he’s kicking for the 3-point favored Cowboys with a decent implied total of 25 points. Bailey’s an accurate kicker who’s nailed all 253 XPA in his career, banged through all five of his field goal attempts this year, and owns an 89.8% FG% in his career.

Defense/Special Teams

Eagles D/ST (PHI): $4,500 vs. Giants
It’s hard for me to wrap my head around how cheap the Eagles D/ST is this week. Philadelphia is at home and a 6-point favorite and their defense does a great job of rushing the passer and forcing turnovers. The Eagles’ eight sacks this year are tied for the fourth most, and ditto for the four turnovers they’ve forced. Last season, they ranked 10th in turnovers forced (26) and tied for 16th in sacks (34) in Jim Schwartz’s first season as their defensive coordinator. In his last season as the DC for the Bills (2014), the team ranked third in turnovers (30) and first in sacks (54). As you can see here, Schwartz’s teams have traditionally done a great job of getting takeaways. The Giants have only turned the ball over two times this year, but the eight sacks they’ve allowed are tied for the third most this season. Also, the turnovers are likely to come for the Giants since Manning has the third most interceptions (46) thrown since 2014 and is prone to making head-scratching decisions when under duress.

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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.

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