After Week 1’s surprising duds and stars, Week 2 played out much more as anticipated. Now that we have two data points from this season to examine (for most teams), we can begin to see trends emerge and to separate the truth from the flukes. It’s not definitive, especially because we only have one game for the Dolphins and Buccaneers, but it’s a clearer picture. But there’s always a catch. Despite it being only Week 3, we’ve already got some significant injury issues. They can create opportunities for other players, or like with Sam Bradford, they can kill the fantasy production of others who rely on them. Many of the week’s best values will be players whose role is changing due to an injury. The real problem is that most of the injured players are still “questionable.” Make sure to check everyone’s injury status on Sunday before you lock in your lineups.
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Quarterback
DeShone Kizer (CLE): $6,900 @ IND
The biggest threat to DeShone Kizer this week isn’t the Colts defense, it’s getting another migraine. Kizer was forced out of last Sunday’s game, but it’s the first time he’s had a migraine during a game since high school. The Browns don’t seem concerned. Kizer has a gem of a matchup against the sad Colts defense. Through two games, they’ve allowed the third-most passing yards, the second-highest yards per attempt, and the highest yards per completion to opposing quarterbacks (statistics via ProFootball Reference). Somehow, they’ve only allowed two touchdowns through the air. But that isn’t likely to continue when you’re giving up 15 yards per completion. Kizer’s play has been a mixed bag, which is not unusual for a rookie starting QB. The most important part is that he’s been given plenty of opportunities, with over 30 pass attempts per game and five rush attempts. Against the hapless Colts, that opportunity is going to result in fantasy points. Kizer has a decent floor with solid upside and is one of the cheapest starters on the board.
Running Back
Rob Kelley (WAS) or Samaje Perine (WAS): $5,600 vs. OAK
We don’t know who’s going to get the nod at running back for Washington this week. Rob Kelley left last Sunday with a rib injury and Samaje Perine proceeded to rack up 21 carries. And that’s what we’re paying for here – a high floor for rushing attempts. I don’t want to start a debate about how replaceable the running back position is, but it’s appropriate (and convenient) that they’re equally priced. Neither player is a special talent, but I’ll pay $5,600 for just about anybody locked into a 20-carry workload, especially against an Oakland defense allowing the eighth highest yards per carry to opposing backs. Ideally (for fantasy purposes), Kelley is out, guaranteeing Perine the entire workload.
C.J. Anderson (DEN): $6,900 @ BUF
Anderson’s return to fantasy relevance has been one of the more surprising parts of the early season. His salary isn’t quite what it should be for the workhorse back that he’s become. Through two weeks, Anderson has been on the field for an average of 71% of the Broncos’ offensive snaps. He’s not out there to block much, either. He’s being utilized (meaning a carry or a target) on 49% of his snaps (via our Snap Count Analysis tool). Only LeSean McCoy gets more usage among backs with at least a 65% snap count average. It’s a difficult matchup against the Bills, but Anderson is still underpriced given his central role in the Broncos offense.
Wide Receiver
Rashard Higgins (CLE): $5,100 @ IND
Corey Coleman‘s misfortune opened the door for Rashard Higgins. He was on the practice squad in Week 1. In Week 2, he caught 7 of 11 passes thrown to him for 95 yards. Coleman’s broken hand has landed him on IR, so for now, Higgins’ role is secure. As I mentioned when talking about DeShone Kizer, the Colts have been inept at defending against the pass this season. They’ve also been oddly solid against the run, allowing the second-lowest yards per carry so far. The Browns haven’t had much success on the ground to begin with and even in this matchup, they could fall behind. Either way, Higgins should continue to see plenty of targets for nearly minimum salary.
Davante Adams (GBP): $6,800 vs. CIN
Davante Adams’ outlook for the week will be partly dependent on the healthy of Jordy Nelson. If Nelson is out, Adams is an easy choice. According to Vegas betting markets (and anyone who’s watched the NFL this season), the Packers are expected to put up a lot of points against the reeling Bengals. With Jordy Nelson’s early exit in Week 2, Adams saw 10 targets, converting eight of them for 99 yards and a touchdown. The Bengals’ numbers against the pass this year seem excellent. Then you remember they’ve faced Deshaun Watson and the worn-out remains of Joe Flacco’s arm and it puts the numbers in a different light. It’s a virtual certainty that Aaron Rodgers will have better results. If Nelson plays, it doesn’t rule Adams out, but it makes him much less appealing and more of a boom or bust option.
Jarvis Landry (MIA): $6,800 @ NYJ
We only have the one game to go on, but all indications are that Jay Cutler loves Jarvis Landry. Landry saw a team-high 15 targets (also second-most in Week 2, behind only Dez Bryant) and even got a rush attempt. He played 91% of the Dolphins’ snaps and had a 27% utilization rate, the highest of any wide receiver in Week 2. The Jets insist they aren’t tanking, despite all the evidence to the contrary. It doesn’t matter, either they’re tanking or they’re genuinely awful. They’ve allowed the third-highest passer rating to opposing quarterbacks and second-most passing touchdowns in two games (five). Landry will spend a lot of time matched against Buster Skrine, arguably the worst of the Jets’ cornerbacks. Landry isn’t the tallest receiver at 5’11”, but even he has two inches on 5’9″ Skrine. No matter who covers him, Landry will get his catches. He’s got a great floor and against the Jets, the upside for a big ceiling. He didn’t practice on Wednesday, but it’s believed he’ll be fine for Sunday.
Tight End
Jason Witten (DAL): $5,500 @ ARI
If you had told me, heading into the season, that through two weeks, Jason Witten would be the most-targeted tight end in the NFL, I would have thought you were crazy, a Cowboys fan, or had just woken up from a five-year coma. Yet here we are. The apparently-immortal Witten received 13 targets in Week 2, bringing his season total to 22. He is the only tight end to play 100% of snaps through two weeks and he’s tied for the sixth-highest utilization rate among tight ends at 15%. It’s an impressive feat for the now 35-year-old Witten. He’s been making the most of his opportunities, catching 17 of his 22 targets. He’s even gotten five looks in the red zone already. The only concern is the matchup. The Cardinals have historically been tough on tight ends. However, they also just let Jack Doyle catch all eight passes from Jacoby Brissett for 79 yards, so I’m willing to chase Witten’s almost-unmatched volume.
Kicker
Dustin Hopkins (WAS): $4,600 vs. OAK
Despite the high Vegas total and close point spread for this game, Dustin Hopkins is one of the cheaper kicker options available. Neither team has a dominant ground game or a shutdown defense, so it should be a fast-paced, high-scoring game. Hopkins’ counterpart on the Raiders, Giorgio Tavecchio, is a good option for the same reasons, but Hopkins comes with a $200 savings.
D/ST
Philadelphia Eagles D/ST: $4,500
Monday night made it clear that the Giants offense is inept. They’ve scored the third-fewest points this season. Only the 49ers and Bengals have managed to score less than their 13 points through two games. The Giants can’t run the ball. At all. They haven’t even topped 100 yards (97). The Dolphins and Buccaneers have both gained more yards on the ground in one game than the Giants have managed in two. They’ll be forced to throw the ball and Eli Manning will make mistakes, especially once it becomes obvious they are no threat to run. He’s already thrown two interceptions and only one touchdown. I always like the chance to roster the Eagles D/ST, because they have such dynamic players on special teams that the potential for a return touchdown is greater than most.
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Steve Repsold is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Steve, check out his archive and follow him @SteveRepsold.
