With just two weeks remaining in the regular season, teams are now running into games played and innings pitched limits in roto leagues, making every decision more crucial. It would behoove those who are rapidly approaching those limits to look ahead and be more critical of which players to start. That could mean sitting players who regularly wouldn’t be on the bench if their matchup is poor and a bench option at the same position has a softer matchup a day or two later. Decision making is even more amplified in head-to-head leagues since a poor start from a starting pitcher can be the difference between winning a matchup and losing one. If you’re in a head-to-head league with moves limits, it’s a great practice to map out moves for the week. Furthermore, if you wrap up your matchup early and have a move or two left from a weekly moves limit, planning ahead for your next opponent is a sharp move.
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Notable Matchups
Orioles vs. Red Sox (3), vs Rays (4)
Baltimore has a few tough pitching matchups next week, but they play a full complement of seven games, and all are at home. The Orioles have hit .269/.326/.469 at home this season, per FanGraphs.
Reds vs. Cardinals (3), vs. Red Sox (3)
Cincinnati’s thump gets a lift playing all six of their games at home next week. Great American Ball Park has these park factors, and the Reds have hit .258/.338/.449 at home this season.
Rockies @ Giants (2), @ Padres (4)
It’s a bad week for Colorado’s bats. Not only are they on the road, they’re on the road in a couple of parks — AT&T and Petco Park — that are at the other end of the run-scoring spectrum.
Padres vs. Diamondbacks (3), vs. Rockies (4)
The Padres play seven games next week, so that’s good. All seven are at home where they’ve hit .231/.303/.386, and that’s not so good.
Mariners vs. Rangers (3), vs. Indians (3)
The M’s offense gets a boost at home next week. They’ve hit just .254/.317/.412 on the road while kicking things up to a slash of .265/.335/.431 at home.
Rangers @ Mariners (3), @ Athletics (3)
The Rangers have massive home road splits that favor playing at home for the offense. They’re on the road for all six next week, and they’ve been dreadful on the road hitting just .228/.300/.413.
Hitter Notes
Matt Olson (OAK)
Among qualified hitters over the last 30 days, Olson trails only Rhys Hoskins in wRC+ (219 for Hoskins and 215 for Olson). I suggested adding Olson a few weeks ago in this column, and he’s continued to stay hot. Entering play on Thursday, he’d slugged 11 homers with a .342/.435/.772 slash in 92 plate appearances over the last 30 days. He’s a must-own option in even shallow leagues at this point, and his keeper stock is way up. If you’re looking for more reason to be excited about Olson’s outlook in keeper leagues, check out Dave Cameron’s piece published at FanGraphs earlier in the week.
Delino DeShields (TEX)
DeShields’ playing time took a hit at the end of August in the wake of the return of Carlos Gomez, but injuries have once again opened the door for him playing regularly, and he continues to illustrate he should be playing regularly even when all parties are healthy. This month, the Rangers’ leadoff hitter is hitting .304/.400/.522 with two homers, 13 runs, and three stolen bases. He has been caught stealing three times in that time frame, but his speed is his calling card from a fantasy perspective. DeShields has been more than a one-trick pony, though, and he should be universally owned down the stretch.
Robinson Chirinos (TEX)
Chirinos is another under-owned member of the Rangers. In two-catcher formats, it’s likely he was scooped up immediately following the trade of Jonathan Lucroy to the Rockies, but he’s played his way into the starting catcher mix in single-catcher formats. Since the start of August, Chirinos has tallied 119 plate appearances in which he’s hit .359/.492/.620 with five homers, a 16.8% BB%, and 16.8% K%. As a backup catcher, Chirinos provided long balls at a nice clip in limited playing time, but he’s more than a low-average slugger now that he’s serving as the club’s everyday catcher. There’s no excuse for his low ownership rates across fantasy sites at this point.
Brandon Nimmo (NYM)
Nimmo is highlighted as something of a specialist. He doesn’t bring much power or speed to the table with four homers and two stolen bases in 220 plate appearances and 84 games played in the Majors, and modest homer and stolen base totals in the minors, too. However, he’s a patient hitter who works a ton of walks and gets on base at an elite clip. This year, he has a .410 OBP in 140 plate appearances for the Mets, and he has a career .403 OBP in 754 plate appearances at the Triple-A level, per Baseball Reference. If you’re in a tightly contested battle for points in OBP in roto leagues or use it as a category in your head-to-head league, Nimmo could be worth a look.
Pitcher Notes
James Paxton (SEA)
Paxton is scheduled to pitch for the Mariners tonight. He last pitched on August 10 before hitting the disabled list with a pectoral strain. He’ll reportedly have a 50-pitch limit. Add in a matchup with Houston’s talented lineup, and it might be best to take a wait-and-see approach with him if your ERA and WHIP are up for grabs in a head-to-head playoff matchup or things are tight in those categories in a roto league. The good news for gamers who set weekly lineups is that they’ll have some data to use in order to make an informed decision regarding starting or sitting him next week. If you are desperate and choose to use him, you can take some solace in the fact he’s pitched very well against the Astros this year and was sharp in his first start off the disabled list when he returned from a DL stint in May.
David Price (BOS)
Price’s injury-ridden season has resulted in just 11 starts to date, and it appears he won’t be adding to his starts total the rest of the year despite his activation from the disabled list and return to Boston’s active roster. Price will pitch in the bullpen the remainder of the year. He’s no threat to Craig Kimbrel for saves, so Price’s fantasy ceiling the rest of 2017 is that of a ratio-helping, multi-inning relievers. The lefty can be cut loose in most leagues, and even in deeper leagues where he could have some value, he carries risk since he hasn’t pitched in an MLB game since July 22.
Lucas Giolito (CWS)
The young righty continues to improve his keeper league stock even after a pair of mediocre outings in his last two turns. Giolito has pitched 5.1 innings or more in all five of his starts for the Pale Hose this season, and he’s allowed three earned runs or fewer in each of his last four starts. The 23-year-old’s 2.56 ERA isn’t supported by his advanced metrics, but there are some positives to glean from his statistics. The youngster sports a 10.9% SwStr% that’s above the league average of 10.4% this year, per FanGraphs, and he’s getting ahead of hitters with a first-pitch strike at roughly the league average (60.4% F-Strike% league average and 60.6% for Giolito). The rest of his plate discipline profile is solid, too, and his 8.7% BB% is a sizable improvement from his 10.7% BB% at the Triple-A level this year. Giolito is a two-start pitcher next week drawing the Astros in Houston on Tuesday and the Royals at home on Sunday, per ESPN. In leagues with weekly lineup changes, it’s a risky move using him as a result of that first start at Houston, but the second start at home against the Royals is a pitcher-friendly one. I would lean in favor of benching him in weekly lineup moves, but context matters and could tip the scales in favor of using him.
Kyle Gibson (MIN)
This is probably the last call for Gibson as his ownership continues to rise after another solid start on Tuesday in which he held the Padres scoreless on four hits, zero walks, and six strikeouts in six innings. He’s strung together five straight quality starts in which he’s allowed two earned runs or fewer in each, and since his recall from Triple-A for a start on August 5, he’s gone eight straight starts allowing three earned runs or fewer. Gibson gets another start this week against the Blue Jays on Sunday, and I’d advocate using him in that turn. Next week, he projects to draw the rebuilding Tigers in Detroit for a start on Friday, another start I’d suggest using him in assuming something doesn’t result in a drastic re-evaluation of him following Sunday’s start.
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
