Peter Howard takes a look for dynasty league waiver wire stashes for Week 1.
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Welcome to the Dynasty Waiver Wire, a weekly feature for the 2017 season where we hunt for players who are going under-owned or undervalued in dynasty. We’ll assume a standard dynasty league of 12 teams with 25 roster spots to keep things realistic while still leaving room to talk about more likely breakout candidates. We will highlight and analyze players we should take notice of before anyone else and why.
What we are looking for
- College production and metrics (such as their Market Share of receiving yards and touchdowns)
- A path to playing time
- Signs a team is interested in their development (snaps, a roster spot, this could be a lot of things)
- Good athleticism for their probable role on an NFL team
Keep an Eye On
Some people don’t have opinions, they just have hype. Past “sleepers” hit the waiver wire fairly often as weekly claims heat up to more win-now orientated decisions. Some are preseason stars, others are past draft touts. If they make it to your dynasty waiver wire you should pick them up.
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Tyler Boyd (WR – CIN)
Last year he was everyone’s favorite second-round rookie pick. This year, he may have been on your waiver wire already. While everyone is excited about Zay Jones’ opportunity they forget that Boyd had similar counting stats – at a younger age – and a higher market share of his college team’s production. He also holds the same second-round NFL Draft capital and has also already proven he can translate to the next level by posting 603/53/1 as a rookie for a team that doesn’t like to play rookies. Remeber as well that his competition literally hurt himself trying to run in a straight line for 40 yards at the combine. Boyd is the number two in an offense that is due touchdown regression this year, and his real competition for the number two job going forward is Brandon LaFell. He should be owned in dynasty.
Leonte Carroo (WR – MIA)
Devante Parker is the future, and maybe the now. But Carroo was a first-round pick in some rookie drafts last year and for good reason. He has a 99th percentile College Dominator, a metric which measures the percentage of a player’s total team yards and touchdowns in college. He has 3rd round draft capital and Jarvis Landry’s situation is uncertain. We shouldn’t be scared off by one year of development behind a more established starter and an athletic marvel like Parker. If someone was frustrated enough to drop him then you should go ahead and take a first-round rookie pick from last year for free.
Pharoh Cooper (WR – LAR)
Another player who jumped out during the pre-draft process of yester year, Cooper was a favored sleeper of the metrics community. He jumped off the page in Jon Moore’s Phenom index on RotoViz, which weighs age adjusted college production – the most predictive data we have for NFL success. The roster has been stuffed with some later round slot receivers and everyone expects good things from Cooper Kupp straight away. But in dynasty Pharoh is exactly the type of player you should spend a roster spot on while we wait to find out.
Paul Richardson (WR – SEA)
We’ve been excited about Richardson a few times including after the speedster (4.40 40-time at the combine) was drafted in the second round of the NFL Draft. I like Tyler Locket’s potential, he is clearly a dynamic talent, but Richardson had (only a slightly less) immersive rookie profile as well. Both have struggled with injuries but Richardson has been on the team longer – more experience – and seems to have recovered. Doug Baldwin is the number one and it will remain that way, but the team could use some big plays in the receiving game and Richardson, who has just been named the official wide receiver two, can do that.
Austin Carr (WR – NO)
Twitter was excited about the prospect of this UDFA when he had a shot to become Tom Brady’s wide receiver five. For some reason, the buzz seems to have died a little now that he has the chance to be Drew Bree’s wide receiver three. Coby Fleener is not good. But he has potential given the volume left behind in the wake of Willie Sneed’s suspension. Carr may not be able to take over that opportunity right now, but he is a dynamic slot receiver. So it’s not a bad bet to pick him up and wait to see how he develops. Carr makes an interesting dynasty waiver wire add for the future.
Deangelo Henderson (RB – DEN)
The situation may clear up, but right now the backfield looks unsettled. They paid C.J. Anderson, and he had a good run a couple of years ago for a few games – but so did Brandon Oliver. Since then Anderson has been injured, inefficient and consistently crowded by players the team has brought in. If I was going to take a flyer on one player in that crowd – who could emerge in a complimentary or leading role – it would be Henderson. He flashed in the pre-season enough for the team to give him first-team reps. With a 5’7″ and 208 lbs frame he is smaller than Anderson but his 94th percentile College Dominator suggests he can handle a workload and his 6.3 (81st percentile) yards per reception indicates he has a three-down skill set.
Matt Breida (RB – SF)
Many were excited about Joe Williams as the number two running back behind Carlos Hyde. Well, Matt Breida is the number two running back behind Carlos Hyde. He flashed in the preseason and won the job outright. At 5’9″ and 195 lbs he profiles more as a third-down-back, but he has impressive athleticism and finished in the 88th percentile in SPARQ-x. The team didn’t seem shy about using him in the preseason either.
Chris Carson (RB – SEA)
This is a case of bad profile/great opportunity. At 6’0″ and 218 lbs Carson has the size and “good enough” athleticism for the position. He was very unproductive in college, a red flag that usually doesn’t lead to preseason workloads that threaten two more established NFL players for the starting role. But that is what has been happening with Carson. The declared started, Thomas Rawls, is a constant injury risk. Plus, while I still believe in Eddie Lacy, he has struggled to dazzle with any of his old potential so far. Carson could easily walk into a high-volume opportunity on a team that wants to use one “bell cow” running back.
Honorable mentions
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