Welcome to the first installment in a series where we take on our Expert Consensus Rankings and try to find what players are being either over-hyped or under-appreciated. The format will be simple: I’ll propose one player from each position that I feel is being ranked too high and another that I believe isn’t getting enough credit. After making my case, we’ll check back in the next week to see how my picks hold up. We’re obviously operating with a clean slate as of now, so let’s just jump into this week’s picks.
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Quarterback
Overvalued: Ben Roethlisberger (PIT): ECR – QB7
Starting any quarterback against the Browns will always seem like a good idea at first glance. Now that it looks like first-overall draft pick Myles Garrett will miss the game with a high ankle sprain, the matchup seems like even more of a sure thing. But take away the fact that it’s the Browns, and what you have is a divisional road game in Week 1 of the season with a quarterback who struggles mightily on the road. In 2016, his passer rating dropped from 116.7 at home to 78.4 in away games. Ben threw 20 touchdowns to just five interceptions at Heinz Field but managed only nine other TDs compared to eight picks elsewhere. When he visited Cleveland last year, Roethlisberger ended his day with 167 yards passing… and that’s it. No touchdowns. Why should this time around be so much better?
Undervalued: Tyrod Taylor (BUF): ECR – QB 17
It’s easy to forget that Tyrod was a top-10 QB last season. His health status going into Week 1 was admittedly murky for awhile there, but he’s since been cleared to play and is expected to start. The Jets, meanwhile, have given every indication that they are indeed in full tank mode and have no intention of winning games this season. Losing Sammy Watkins isn’t ideal, but Taylor maintained most of his success last year without Watkins on the field anyway. Instead, he’ll have Jordan Matthews, who, like Taylor, has recently been cleared to start Week 1. Tyrod’s largest obstacle to fantasy success on Sunday will be teammate LeSean McCoy, who is a threat to simply do everything and leave nothing left for his QB.
Running Back
Overvalued: C.J. Anderson (DEN): ECR – RB13
Most of Denver’s offensive woes last season were pinned on the play at quarterback, and perhaps rightfully so. Anderson was lost for the season in Week 7, which certainly made things more difficult for Trevor Siemian and company, but let’s not pretend that C.J. was lighting it up when he was healthy. Of his seven starts, he failed to rush for even 50 yards in four games – and no, one of those was not the game where he was injured. In 2016, the Chargers were 10th-best in the league in terms of rushing yards allowed. Don’t be surprised if Anderson finishes Week 1 outside of the top 20.
Undervalued: Frank Gore (IND): ECR – RB30
Look, Frank Gore has to fall off eventually, and this year is as good a time as any given how much goal-line work he lost to Robert Turbin in 2016. But let’s not forget that he’s still an incredible talent with a starting position on a team that will be leaning on him without their starting QB. Furthermore, Rams defensive stalwart Aaron Donald doesn’t appear to be playing in Week 1, given that he’s apparently still hanging out across the country amidst contract disputes. Donald’s absence is a bona fide game-changer for the Colts, not just as it relates to their run game but in regards to their offensive capabilities as a whole.
Wide Receiver
Overvalued: Doug Baldwin (SEA): ECR – WR5
Baldwin is the quintessential boom-or-bust fantasy asset, the type of guy who accumulates most of his year-long totals from only a few games. To say that he’s the fifth-best receiving option in the league for Week 1 must mean that the experts are expecting a boom, but that seems like a stretch. Remember that after catching 11 TDs in five weeks in 2015, Baldwin only had seven throughout the entirety of 2016. Furthermore, last year was really the first season that neither Baldwin nor his quarterback Russell Wilson got off to their usual slow start. It’s not that Baldwin is a bad option this week, but rather that WR5 is a bit silly considering that puts him ahead of guys like Jordy Nelson and Dez Bryant.
Undervalued: Pierre Garcon (SF): ECR – WR30
Garcon is the No. 1 pass-catching option on a team coached by none other than the man responsible for the best years of his career. The Panthers are looking to recapture the explosiveness of their offense that they so sorely missed last season, and the 49ers frankly aren’t equipped to stop them defensively if they manage to get the ball rolling. That means Kyle Shanahan and company will have no choice but to throw, and Garcon is basically the only qualified receiver on the whole team. Opportunity alone should propel Garcon at least into the top 25 after everything is said and done this week.
Tight End
Overvalued: Jordan Reed (WAS): ECR – TE5
Reed is almost always good when healthy, even if it’s not that often. His health status appears to be fairly clean going into this week, but that’s about all he has going his way. Despite the departures of Pierre Garcon and DeSean Jackson, there’s still no shortage of mouths to feed for Kirk Cousins. Terrelle Pryor has joined the crew after a breakout season with the Browns, and the ever-improving Jamison Crowder will be looking for an increased target share. Josh Doctson is essentially a new addition to the team as well after the former first-round pick missed 14 games in his rookie season. Most important, the Eagles were the best defense against tight ends last year, allowing only 414 yards to the position all season long. Jordan Reed owners probably aren’t in any position to sit him, so it will be important to temper expectations.
Undervalued: Charles Clay (BUF): ECR – TE17
Sammy Watkins wasn’t the only departure from Buffalo’s receiving corps. Robert Woods left to join the Rams, and Marquise Goodwin is on the 49ers. Charles Clay had the second most receiving yards on the team last year and tied for the lead in touchdown receptions (with Justin Hunter, who is also gone). He’s quite literally the only familiar face that Tyrod Taylor will be throwing to (outside of McCoy), and that has to count for something in a very winnable matchup for his team.
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Shane McCormack is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Shane, check out his archive and follow him @ShaneMcCormack_.
