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Fantasy Football Overvalued/Undervalued: Week 2

Fantasy Football Overvalued/Undervalued: Week 2

It only gets easier from here on out. Week 1 is always tough to nail down, but this year seemed especially unpredictable. Formerly respectable offenses struggled to move the ball, and staunch defensive performances were abundant. Success was more dependent on what games your players were in more so than the talent of the players themselves.

With the preemptive excuses out of the way, let’s check out how last week’s picks fared:

Overvalued

Ben Roethlisberger (PIT): ECR – 7 / Finished – QB 17 / WIN
CJ Anderson (DEN): ECR – 13 / Finished – RB 20 / WIN
Doug Baldwin (SEA): ECR – 5 / Finished – WR 31 / WIN
Jordan Reed (WAS): ECR – 5 / Finished – TE 17 / WIN

Undervalued

Tyrod Taylor (BUF): ECR – 17 / Finished – QB T-6 / WIN
Frank Gore (IND): ECR – 30 / Finished – RB 34 / LOSS
Pierre Garcon (SF): ECR – 30 / Finished – WR 22 / WIN
Charles Clay (BUF) ECR – 17 / Finished – TE 5 / WIN

The first round of projections went about as smoothly as one could hope. Seven out of eight picks were correct, none of which were really all that close. Frank Gore‘s game proved the only misfire, where the all-timer ran admirably (4.2 YPC) but was ultimately too limited by game flow and opportunity to have any value. My favorite call was Charles Clay, just because watching Week 1 was such a harsh reminder as to the importance of familiarity and chemistry in the NFL early on in the season. The biggest fluke had to have been Doug Baldwin, who I thought would merely fall to maybe WR 15-ish. That Seahawks-Packers game defied expectations in many ways.

I’ve set the bar high, so let’s see if I can even come close to this level of accuracy with these selections.

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Quarterback

Overvalued: Drew Brees (NO vs. NE): ECR – QB 3
If you think Bill Belichick’s Patriots are going to let another team hang 30+ on them in consecutive weeks, you’re in for a surprise on Sunday. Even if New England doesn’t come in completely revitalized after their devastating defeat in the season opener, the Saints simply don’t have the personnel to attack them in the same way that the Chiefs did. Kansas city exploited a weak front seven that especially struggles in pass coverage, which meshed well with their strengths at RB and TE. New Orleans is the opposite; all of the offense’s talent is at QB and WR, which the Patriots defense is specifically equipped to handle with two high level cornerbacks and one elite free safety. Brees should still be better than he was last week against an elite Vikings defense, but this game might not be the shootout everyone is anticipating.

Undervalued: Sam Bradford (MIN @ PIT): ECR – QB 16
Yes, Bradford’s success last week was in large part due to the fact that he was playing the Saints defense. Still, he’s not getting enough credit. He’s coming off of his first full offseason with the team, his offensive line appears vastly improved, and he has at his disposal one of the league’s emerging WR duos in Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen. Heinz Field is a brutal playing environment and will be a stark contrast from the comforts of home he enjoyed on Monday night, but the Steelers defense made DeShone Kizer‘s Browns look almost competent. A strong outing from Bradford this week ought to propel him into the conversation for being a weekly starter.

Running Back

Overvalued: Kareem Hunt (KC vs. PHI): ECR – RB 6
Time to pump the brakes. Kareem Hunt‘s historic night was a sight to behold, but it’s a bit early to be throwing him into the top 10 on a weekly basis, especially against a defense that had no trouble whatsoever against the run last week in Philadelphia. Both Hunt and the Kansas City offense in general still have a lot to prove; namely, that their Week 1 outing wasn’t the exception but the rule. He should be started in all leagues, yes, but sixth-best option at RB in the league is a hard pill to swallow for a rookie with a single game under his belt.

Undervalued: Christian McCaffrey (CAR vs. BUF): ECR – RB 18
On the other end of the spectrum of rookie expectations we have McCaffrey. Because he didn’t perform like Kareem Hunt, many of his owners are down on him after having their expectations lifted to unreasonably lofty heights in the preseason. His workload remains too promising to leave him as a low-end RB2. In Week 1 McCaffrey carried the ball 13 times and was targeted in the passing game seven more. That’s the rushing attempts of a(n) RB2 and the target share of a WR2 all wrapped up nicely into one player. Jonathan Stewart‘s high level of involvement was certainly cause for concern, and it’s a little bit risky to say that a player inside the top 20 is undervalued, but McCaffrey went from being over-hyped to under-appreciated far too quickly.

Wide Receiver

Overvalued: Michael Thomas (NO vs. NE): ECR – WR 8
My thoughts were made clear when I talked about Drew Brees, but just to reiterate, the Saints offense may not be as explosive on Sunday as so many seem to expect. Thomas failed to impress against the Vikings, and if he has to deal with a Stephon Gilmore-Devin McCourty tandem in Week 2, it could mean more tough sledding ahead. We’ve yet to see Thomas succeed without Brandin Cooks helping draw away attention, and it’s possible at this point that Thomas was overrated going into this season. Even if that’s just an overreaction to an underwhelming Week 1, you can still guarantee that the Patriots will be scheming to take him out of the picture this Sunday.

Undervalued: Tyrell Williams (LAC vs. MIA): ECR – WR 39
Nobody was all that high on Williams going into this season despite just how good he was last year. That’s because his 2016 season seemed to be almost entirely the product of opportunity, and said opportunity had seemingly run its course once Keenan Allen and the other injured Chargers returned from injury. That meant competing for targets with Allen, Travis Benjamin, Antonio Gates, Hunter Henry, etc. But Williams ended Week 1 with five receptions on seven targets for 54 yards against the toughest cornerback duo in one of the most hostile stadiums in the league. Those seven targets ranked second on the team behind Allen, and were as many looks as Benjamin, Gates, and Henry received – combined. Tyrell Williams had no business posting even mediocre numbers Monday night, but he did, and it speaks to a level of trust and importance to the team that should count for more than a low-end WR4 ranking.

Tight End

Overvalued: Jimmy Graham (SEA vs. SF): ECR – TE 4
Seattle has a problem with its offensive line. That goes without saying. They made Green Bay’s defense look like an elite unit, despite being one of the most generous last year. This week’s opposition, San Francisco, held Greg Olsen to 18 yards on two receptions just last week. Graham himself only caught three passes for a grand total of eight yards against the Packers. Game flow will have to be perfect for Graham to succeed. If Seattle gets too far ahead, then they won’t need to throw, and if they fall behind, it will be because their line is allowing Russell Wilson to be abused.

Undervalued: Zach Miller (CHI @ TB): ECR – TE 20
Chicago’s receiving corps is quickly being decimated at what has to be some sort of record-setting pace. They weren’t anything special going into the season, but losing Cameron Meredith in the preseason and Kevin White in Week 1 made a really bad situation into an impossible one. Having to compete with Dion Sims at the position isn’t ideal, but at this point the Bears just need warm bodies that can catch a football, and he’s done it – and done it well – in the past. He saw six targets last week, which is twice as many as Sims got, for what it’s worth. At the end of the day every tight end has a low floor, so if you’re hurting at the position it can’t hurt to take a chance on a guy like Miller.


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Shane McCormack is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Shane, check out his archive and follow him @ShaneMcCormack_.

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