Ok, so now we have something to work with. In Week 1, we were largely basing our start/sit decisions on sticking mainly with the studs that we drafted. In Week 2, we walked the line between being loyal to our guys and trying to take into account, but not overreact to, Week 1 data.
But now, we’re ready to roll. We’ve got snap counts, target shares, average depth of throws, route efficiency, the works. Still, it’s important to walk the line between taking into account a player’s matchup and betting on talent. So let’s try to walk that tightrope with this week’s start/sit!
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Quarterback
Starts
Jay Cutler (MIA at NYJ): ECR of 16
According to my four-year-old son, the Jets “are really, really stinky.” First, I’m impressed with his deep understanding of football at such a young age. Second, he’s right. The Jets have allowed five passing touchdowns and an average of 20 fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks in their two games this year, one of which was against Tyrod Taylor. And while you may see Jay Cutler’s name and cringe, the fact is he looked quite comfortable last week back in Adam Gase’s offense, checking down when necessary and not forcing throws. The Dolphins have the ninth-highest implied total this week at 23.75 points, so there will be offense. Sure, Jay Ajayi might be the primary beneficiary, but Cutler absolutely can have a big game here.
DeShone Kizer (CLE at IND): ECR of 20
Are you not entertained? Let’s get a little risky here, shall we? Yes, Kizer was awful against the Ravens, with four interceptions and missing time with a migraine. But let’s not forget that he was pretty impressive against a very tough Steelers defense in Week 1, amassing more than 18 fantasy points. He now gets a Colts team that has allowed an average of 325 passing yards in their first two games. Kizer may not hit that mark, but his rushing ability gives him a very high floor against an eminently beatable defense. I’d expect Isaiah Crowell to have a big game, but look for Kizer to look like the Week 1 version of himself, only better.
Sits
Jameis Winston (TB at MIN): ECR of 12
We haven’t really had the chance to see the new and improved Bucs offense, as Tampa Bay rolled over the Bears so easily in Week 2 that Winston did not need to show off. And though we may finally get a look at it this week, I’m not optimistic that this will be the game we see it shine. The Minnesota defense, and particularly its pass defense, remains legitimate, as it has held both Ben Roethlisberger and Drew Brees in check. Xavier Rhodes has been excellent in coverage against Michael Thomas and Antonio Brown, which should limit (to an extent) Mike Evans’ production. Winston is turnover prone, so this has the potential of being a rough one if the Vikings defense can get to him early.
Marcus Mariota (TEN v. SEA): ECR of 15
Mariota continues his trek into a very rough part of his schedule, as he draws a Seahawks team that is always tough on opposing quarterbacks (third-fewest fantasy points to opposing QBs since the start of 2016). They’ve allowed touchdowns on only 2.8% of passing attempts, an elite number. And Mariota has hardly been a world-beater so far this season, with just one passing touchdown and one rushing touchdown in two games. His rushing ability provides a decent floor, but owners should prepare themselves for what will probably be one of his worst fantasy outputs of the season.
Running Back
Start
Joe Mixon (CIN at GB): ECR of 34
I know, I know, I know – hey, the guy was a sit last week, so stop judging me. Ok, let’s start with a couple of obvious points. The Bengals haven’t suddenly become the worst offense in the league. Joe Mixon is by far their most talented running back. There’s been an offensive coordinator change. They’re going to need a lot of points this weekend against Green Bay. The Packers allowed three touchdowns to running backs last week. Look, am I terrified out of my mind to start Mixon this week? OF COURSE! But if Bill Lazor is smart, Mixon will get the rock a ton this weekend. And frankly, although he seems invisible, he does lead the team with 17 carries and has seen almost as many targets as Giovani Bernard. With jobs on the line, you’d have to think the best playmakers are getting the ball, and that should mean a heavy workload for Mixon. (Yeah, and start A.J. Green. Too obvious?)
Chris Thompson (WAS v. OAK): ECR of 32
It’s a little dicey to rely on a guy who is getting just 6.5 touches per game, regardless of how well he’s doing with them. But I feel wholly confident that Thompson will produce on Sunday against the Raiders. It sounds like Rob Kelley will try to play through his rib injury, but it shouldn’t matter for Thompson’s value. What should matter is that the Raiders are going to put up some points against the Redskins, meaning that Thompson is going to see the field quite a bit as Washington tries to keep up. I’m not betting on him keeping up this touchdown streak, but he’s certainly a viable play.
Sit
Leonard Fournette (JAC v. BAL): ECR of 14
If you own Fournette, he’s nearly impossible to get away from. The young back has given no reason to doubt him so far. But can you give me a reason why the Ravens, already an elite defense, won’t have a minimum of eight defenders in the box every single play? Blake Bortles can’t do damage against most defenses, and certainly not this one, so Fournette is likely going to need a touchdown to have any sort of fantasy impact. Even if Brandon Williams winds up missing the game, it’s doubtful that Fournette will do much against a defense that has yet to allow a running back to total more than 40 yards rushing.
Tevin Coleman (ATL at DET): ECR of 27
If you take out Coleman’s short receiving touchdown (which I know you can’t do, but I’m doing it), he’d be having a pretty mediocre season, with an average of 10 touches and a total of just 103 all-purpose yards. We don’t really know what the Lions defense can do against running backs, as David Johnson got injured early in Week 1 and the Giants clearly decided to go into their season without a running game. But this is more about Coleman’s usage (or lack thereof). In the end, if he doesn’t score a touchdown, he’s likely looking at another 50 all-purpose yards, hardly making him a fantasy asset.
Wide Receiver
Start
Sammy Watkins (LAR at SF): ECR of 34
So, what do we make of Sammy Watkins this year? On the one hand, he’s been targeted just seven times and has just 88 yards receiving. On the other, he’s caught every one of those targets and was on the field for nearly every snap last week. Jared Goff and Cooper Kupp have amazing chemistry, but there’s no doubt that Sean McVay watched with his mouth agape last week as Goff stared down Kupp and threw into heavy coverage for a game-ending interception. My guess is that Watkins gets featured more here against the 49ers, as he will be matched up mostly with Rashard Robinson and Dontae Johnson, both of whom he should be able to beat. This may be Watkins’ last chance to show himself as a fantasy option, and he’ll be ready to play.
Devin Funchess (CAR v. NO): ECR of 50
Funchess was solid on Sunday and has two major pluses heading into Week 3. The first is Greg Olsen’s injury, which opens up some additional targets in the passing game, and the second is a matchup with the Saints. You don’t need me to tell you that the Saints are an easy matchup, but you may need me to tell you that Marshon Lattimore, perhaps their best corner, will likely follow around Kelvin Benjamin, given how prominent his role is in the offense. That should allow Funchess to go against P.J. Williams, which almost necessarily guarantees fantasy success. Increased targets plus weak cornerback should mean good things for Funchess on Sunday.
Sit
Alshon Jeffery (PHI v. NYG): ECR of 19
I’m assuming Janoris Jenkins will return from his injured ankle this week, and that’s bad news for Jeffery, as Jenkins will likely be his shadow. The Giants have been tough on opposing wide receivers for more than a full season, and no wide receiver has scored more than eight fantasy points in standard leagues against them this year. We all saw Jenkins shut down Dez Bryant in Week 1, and he’s more than capable of taking out any receiver. Jeffery could certainly have asked for a better matchup, and there’s a good chance we see the Week 1 version (three catches for 38 yards).
T.Y. Hilton (IND v. CLE): ECR of 30
Hilton has had a tough year, with just seven catches for 106 yards in his two games. It’s obviously not his fault, as neither Scott Tolzien nor Jacoby Brissett has been able to take advantage of Hilton’s skill. If Brissett targets Hilton heavily here, he’ll probably have some success in terms of receptions, as the Browns have allowed a catch rate of 62.5 percent to wide receivers. But Cleveland ranks 12th in yards allowed to wide receivers, so they’re not giving up a ton of huge plays (and that number is inflated by Antonio Brown’s heroics in Week 1). If you’re in a PPR league, Hilton probably will be valuable as a Flex, but he’s a tough start until he gets a real quarterback.
Tight End
Start
Benjamin Watson (BAL at JAC): ECR of 19
If you are a tight end who plays for the Ravens, you automatically become fantasy relevant. Jeremy Maclin and Mike Wallace figured to get a ton of looks this season because all those Dennis Pitta targets (86 last year) had to go somewhere, right? Well, they’re going somewhere all right, and that somewhere is to whoever is the best tight end at the moment, and that happens to be Watson. He ran routes on about two-thirds of passing plays last week and saw eight targets, all of which he brought in for 91 yards. He’ll now take on a Jaguars team that gave up two touchdowns to the Titans’ tight ends last week. Deploy with confidence.
Martellus Bennett (GB v. CIN): ECR of 7
Bennett’s time in Green Bay isn’t off to a great start, as he has yet to score a touchdown and has totaled only 90 yards receiving. But at some point, that has to change. He’s been targeted 17 times in two games and has gotten 17 percent of the targets. Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb are both banged up. This has to be the week for Bennett, or he may simply not have fantasy relevance this year.
Sit
Jimmy Graham (SEA at TEN): ECR of 12
Well, let’s see. Graham is battling either a knee or an ankle injury, depending on who you talk to. He’s got four catches this year for nine yards. And he’s got a tough matchup in Tennessee. Those are . . . not good things. I can’t see how you can start Graham in anything but an incredibly deep league given all those factors, and he’s likely going to be a game-time decision anyway. Grab another option for this Sunday.
Coby Fleener (NO at CAR): ECR of 13
Fleener has touchdowns in both games played this year, but each came at the very end of the game and he didn’t have a single catch in the first half last week against the Patriots. This is the final game without Willie Snead and Fleener did score in both games against the Panthers last year, so there’s still reason for optimism. But with the Panthers’ struggles on offense, this doesn’t feel like a blowout win that will require the Saints to throw a ton. Even without Snead, this could be the week that Fleener comes back to earth a bit.
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Dan Harris is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Dan, check out his archive or follow him on Twitter at @danharris80.
