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Fantasy Football Start/Sit: Week 2

Fantasy Football Start/Sit: Week 2

Well, that was a humdinger, wasn’t it? A wild Week 1 saw our long-held opinions about some players change in just a few quarters of action, and suddenly, we’re wondering whether we should bench our third-round pick for an undrafted free agent who we picked up off the waiver wire two days ago.

Well, have no fear. In this series, we’re going to run through some potentially startable players each week, and discuss their fantasy prospects. We’re not going to be discussing whether you should start Le’Veon Bell or Julio Jones (spoiler alert: you should!), but we’ll instead touch on some players who fall into the “borderline option” range in the expert consensus rankings. Sound like fun? Good.

So let’s dive into it. Here is your start/sit analysis for Week 2.

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Quarterbacks

Starts

Alex Smith (KC vs. PHI): ECR of 16
Smith had an out-of-nowhere performance on Thursday night, throwing for 368 yards and four touchdowns, two of which went for at least 75 yards. That was pretty shocking, considering Smith has ranked in the bottom of average depth of throw for his entire career. No, he’s not suddenly Aaron Rodgers, but there’s plenty of reason to consider him a starting option this week. The Chiefs are on extra rest in Arrowhead Stadium, one of the most friendly venues for the home team in all of sports. The Eagles did force Kirk Cousins into three turnovers in Week 1, but they’ve lost Ronald Darby to a gruesome ankle injury. The Chiefs opened with the fifth-highest implied total for Week 2 at 26 points, and if Las Vegas is betting on Smith, why wouldn’t you?

Carson Palmer (ARI at IND): ECR of 12
Palmer was a prime target for Andrew Luck owners – a guy with a soft early schedule that could get you through the first four weeks with a slate of easy matchups. But a dreadful performance against the Lions and the loss of his best playmaker in David Johnson have some running for the hills. Personally, I’m in the camp that this was simply a bad game from Palmer against an improving and pumped up Lions defense, and that he should be fine for the rest of the season. But even if you don’t believe that you should still be starting Palmer with confidence this week against the Colts. Jared Goff threw for 306 yards and had a 117.9 quarterback rating against the Colts in Week 1, and it was a game where he didn’t even need to throw. The Cardinals are going to be angry and they just lost their best running back. Expect Palmer to bounce back big time here.

Sits

Sam Bradford (MIN at PIT): ECR of 15
Perhaps no quarterback, not even Alex Smith, had a more impressive opening game than Bradford, who threw for 346 yards and three touchdowns while making several incredible throws. But let’s pump the brakes a little bit on him before getting overly excited. First, the Vikings are on a short week, having played Monday night. Second, they play the Steelers in Pittsburgh for their home opener. That’s a daunting task for any QB, particularly one who was the most conservative quarterback last season (just a 6.4 average depth of throw). Like Smith, Bradford is intriguing this season, especially if he comes close to throwing downfield nearly as much as he did last week. But for Week 2, proceed with caution.

Marcus Mariota (TEN at JAC): ECR of 11
Mariota disappointed somewhat in Week 1 against the Raiders, though his fantasy line was salvaged by a rushing touchdown. He’ll now face a tough Jacksonville defense that had its coming out party against the Texans (though, to be fair, I’m pretty sure I could gather a few people from the office and play defense against Tom Savage and we’d have a coming out party, too). It’s unlikely that Jacksonville will put up all that many points on offense, as they’ll likely look to win using the same formula they used against the Texans – running the ball and good defense. That’s a recipe for a conservative game plan for both sides, which will likely limit Mariota’s upside this week.

Running Backs

Starts

James White (NE at NO): ECR of 32
White may not have lit up the box score on Thursday night against the Chiefs, but he was on the field for 53 percent of the Patriots’ plays and had 10 carries (a career high), with two touches within the 10-yard line. Mike Gillislee was in for just 21 snaps and seemed mostly relegated to goal-line work. Against the Saints, White should be able to do a ton of damage if he comes close to the 13 total touches he saw against the Chiefs and definitely has the potential to finish the week as a high-end RB2 if things break right.

Kerwynn Williams (ARI at IND): ECR of 31
We all know about David Johnson’s injury, and there are tons of question marks about what Arizona will do with its running back position now that the team re-signed Chris Johnson. Whatever the long-term impact is of Johnson’s signing, it’s likely that he’s going to need at least a week or two to get back up to speed. As discussed above with Palmer, it’s a pretty fantastic matchup for everyone on the Cardinals offense, and Williams actually has a 5.4 YPC average in his career. Expect a fairly big game from Williams in this one, though his long-term prospects may not be quite as rosy as this week’s outlook. But start with confidence here.

Sits

Joe Mixon (CIN vs. HOU): ECR of 37
Mixon had an awful debut, gaining just nine yards on eight carries, plus another 15 through the air on three receptions. It certainly wasn’t all his fault – eight of his nine rushing yards came AFTER contact, after all. He should get an easier task this week against a Houston defense that, while still solid, doesn’t look to be quite as stout against the run as Baltimore. The bigger issue for Mixon is that he was on the field for just 22 snaps, while Giovani Bernard was on the field for 26 snaps. And while Jeremy Hill saw only 10 snaps, that was largely a product of the Bengals being behind for most of the game. Mixon should eventually break out. But behind a suspect offensive line and splitting touches with two other running backs, he shouldn’t see a starting fantasy lineup right now.

Isaiah Crowell (CLE at BAL): ECR of 21
Crowell had a disappointing Week 1 against the Steelers with just 66 total yards, but he is clearly the lead dog and Cleveland showed a strong commitment to the ground game. Unfortunately, the Browns now travel to Baltimore for the Ravens’ home opener. Baltimore looked ferocious on defense last week, and it’s unlikely that DeShone Kizer is going to put fear into anyone’s mind. That means Crowell should see a lot of stacked boxes in this one, and running room will be hard to come by. If you own Crowell, don’t panic – his schedule lightens up a bit after this one. But be prepared for a rough game all around on Sunday.

Wide Receiver

Starts

Jarvis Landry (MIA at LAC): ECR of 32
Landry had a huge day on Sunday with no drops or any notable mistakes. What? The Dolphins didn’t play? Oh, right. Anyway, DeVante Parker justifiably got a lot of love in the preseason, but the Week 2 matchup against the Chargers sets up well for Landry. If you watched the Chargers’ Monday night game against the Broncos, you saw Jason Verrett and Casey Hayward make life tough on Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders. Both guys are top cornerbacks and, notably for Landry, neither one goes to the slot very often (hence the Bennie Fowler two-touchdown game!). Landry is one of the best slot receivers in the game, and that’s where the weak spot is in the Chargers defense. Landry makes a sneaky solid play here even in standard leagues.

Ted Ginn (NO vs. NE): ECR of 38
Ginn, like most of the Saints offense, had a tad bit of a disappointing Week 1, though he did manage to haul in four of his five targets for 53 yards against a tough Vikings defense. He now gets to take on a Patriots defense that was utterly destroyed by a usually conservative Chiefs team. You know how the Patriots operate – they look to take away your one best weapon and force you to beat them in other ways. Well, the best weapon may be Michael Thomas or Mark Ingram, but it’s certainly not Ginn. In a likely shootout, Ginn’s speed should play well, and he’ll have a chance for a monstrous game.

Sits

Kenny Golladay (DET at NYG): ECR OF 49
Given his ECR, it doesn’t seem like Golladay needs to be labeled a sit here, but judging from the questions in our AMA this week on Reddit, he’s a worthy topic of discussion. Golladay had a monstrous debut, with 69 yards and two touchdowns on four receptions, including an incredibly athletic reception on a deep ball from Matthew Stafford. And while he’s certainly a worthy add off the waiver wire, it’s going to be tough for him to see consistent production with his limited usage. He was on the field for just 29 of 43 pass plays on Sunday, while Golden Tate (41) and Marvin Jones (43) saw the field on nearly all of them. Golladay is a wonderful athlete and should eventually be a stud receiver in the league. But against a very tough Giants pass defense as the third option in the Detroit receiving game, Sunday doesn’t set up well for him.

Dez Bryant (DAL at DEN): ECR of 21
If you used an early pick on Bryant, you probably don’t have many better options, but he continues his run against top-flight cornerbacks with a matchup against the Broncos in Denver. Bryant caught just two of nine targets last week against Janoris Jenkins and the Giants, and it’s difficult to see him doing much better against either Chris Harris Jr. or Aqib Talib. He’s always a threat to come up with a touchdown, and his size and physicality always make him a target in the red zone. But the chances of Bryant having a huge game are next to nothing, and he’s a borderline second receiver at best.

Tight End

Starts

Charles Clay (BUF at CAR): ECR of 12
Clay was solid against the Jets in Week 1, and now gets the Panthers defense, which allowed George Kittle to look like a competent starting fantasy tight end in his NFL debut, even though the 49ers could not move the ball. Tyrod Taylor has been targeting Clay consistently since the end of last year, and there is no reason to expect that to stop on Sunday. He’s a fine option here.

Jared Cook (OAK vs. NYJ): ECR of 18
You had me at “playing the New York Jets this week.” Cook was targeted five times on Sunday against the Titans, catching all of them for 56 yards. It looks pretty clear that he’ll be a primary cog in the passing game, as defenses struggle to contain Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper. There will be plenty of soft spots in the Jets defense in Oakland on Sunday, making Cook a fine streaming option.

Sits

Tyler Eifert (CIN vs. HOU): ECR of 10
Andy Dalton looked awful against the Ravens in Week 1, and Eifert was dragged down with him, bringing in only one reception for four yards. The task doesn’t get much easier against the Texans on Thursday, which allowed the third fewest fantasy points to tight ends in 2016 (and shut down Marcedes Lewis in Week 1, hardly a notable task, of course). The Texans are bound to be furious at the embarrassment handed to them by the Jaguars, and J.J. Watt and company will probably be at their best. Eifert’s long-term prospects are fine, but he’s not a great start in this one.

Eric Ebron (DET at NYG): ECR of 16
Ebron didn’t get a part of the Lions offense in Week 1, catching just two passes for nine total yards. He now draws a Giants team against whom he caught four passes for 36 yards in 2016. Jason Witten had a nice day against the G-Men last week, so this is far from an unbeatable matchup. But at home on Monday night, expect the Giants defense to be ferocious, making Ebron a very risky play.


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Dan Harris is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Dan, check out his archive or follow him on Twitter at @danharris80.

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