Tommy Kislingbury provides his IDP risers and fallers for Week 2.

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The human brain is a really weird thing. We continually fool ourselves into seeing a very small slice of reality based on what we concentrate on. Marketing uses this brilliantly, of course, to show us what we want to see, but it happens all around us. We like a certain bar because they happen to have our favorite drink. We think a city is a great town because we had one good experience there.

In football, many people only pay attention to a small part of the game. There are 22 men on the field but lots of very committed football fans really only pay attention to QBs, RBs, and WRs. They discount TEs, generalize offensive linemen, and flat out ignore defensive players. Given you’re reading an IDP article I presume you are not one of those people and appreciate that all players on the field are part of the game, and feel fantasy football should be organized accordingly.

In this column, I’ll be touching on the IDP players that are moving up or down on a week-by-week basis. Who’s hot and who’s cooling off. Who’s about to break out or fall off a cliff. The objective being to give you an edge over the people who (although they’re in an IDP league) don’t give that side of the ball the respect it deserves and therefore what’s required to win your leagues.

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RISING IDPs

Chris Jones (DE – KC)
Jones was a wrecking ball in Week 2 against the Eagles. He only played 32 defensive snaps but he managed to record four solo tackles, three sacks, and an interception. That’s making a play on a third of the time he was on the field. Clearly that’s unsustainable, but Jones is one of the most talented young 34 ends in the league. He’s going to be very productive.

Jerry Hughes (DE – BUF)
Sean McDermott has traditionally delivered high efficiency from the end position, and it seems like that will continue in Buffalo. Hughes is getting the lion’s share of snaps and has two sacks and seven total tackles in two weeks. He’s going to be a really good player all year and is a great option at DE2.

Jordan Willis (DE – CIN)
The Bengals don’t really like to hand snaps to rookies, but when Michael Johnson got concussed in Week 1 Willis assumed the greatest share of snaps. He gets to play across from Carlos Dunlap which will take some pressure off him. Willis is probably more of a long-term target than one for redraft leagues in 2017, but he could produce in the short term too.

Jaylon Smith (LB – DAL)
Smith played just 36 snaps in his Week 1 debut. After he proved he could handle that he jumped up to 68 snaps in Week 2 (Sean Lee managed 77). He doesn’t yet look like the talent he was at Notre Dame, but he should continue to improve this season. We know Sean Lee isn’t the most resilient of players either, so the future is likely very bright for Smith.

Kyle Van Noy (LB – NE)
Lots of people seem to dislike Van Noy. After all, he was a bust in Detroit. But now with a Super Bowl ring and ensconced as the clear lead LB for the Patriots he’s way undervalued. He’s piled up eight solos and two assists so far this year and is way ahead of other options on the team in playing time. He might not be the new Tedy Bruschi, but he’s going to be a reliable IDP asset.

Derrick Johnson (LB – KC)
“He’s old” they said. “He’ll be replaced this year” they said. All wrong. Johnson leads all LBs at the time of writing in defensive snaps with 153 from two games. That’s not going to last, but he’s certainly proven he can still play at that volume. He also has 10 total tackles and a defended pass, so he’s being productive. If you can get him for cheap then he’s a lovely value right now.

Vonn Bell (S – NO)
Bell didn’t play on defense in Week 1, but after Kenny Vaccaro was benched in Week 2 after being embarrassed by Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski Bell managed 33 snaps. He proved in 2016 he can be very productive, and he’s very possibly lying around on waivers. If you need a safety in deeper leagues he’s a solid addition this week.

Jahleel Addae (S – LAC)
Addae owners threw their hands up after he managed just one solo and one assisted tackle in Week 1. But as always in IDP you should trust the volume.  He played 69 snaps in Week 1 and low and behold bounced back in Week 2 with five solo tackles and another assist in his 66 snaps while looking super active and decisive. He has every chance to be a top-10 safety this season if his (admittedly slight) body can hold up to the punishment.

Jayon Brown (LB – TEN)
Brown was a late-round draft pick this year, and many people didn’t know much about him. But he impressed all through camp in coverage and the team clearly like him. They’ve given him space to shine with 67 defensive snaps in the first two weeks. That’s some way behind Avery Williamson and Wesley Woodyard, but the future is bright for Brown. I fully expect him to be starting by the end of the season.

FALLING IDPs

Deshazor Everett (S – WAS)
After Su’a Cravens issues Everett was a popular waiver wire add. Unfortunately, he was so bad in Week 1 he may well have blown his chance even before Cravens announced he’d be returning. Everett is likely done as an IDP and droppable in all formats.

Jamal Adams (S – NYJ)
When he came out of the draft the IDP and draft worlds both seemed to think Adams was going to be the next great box safety. Unfortunately, they misunderstood what made him such a great prospect which is his versatility and ability to play in the box as well as the slot. He’s managed nine total tackles in his first two games, but given how highly he was drafted this is bound to be a little disappointing. I still maintain he’s going to have a similar style and career to Patrick Chung.

T.J. Watt (LB – PIT)
After his startling debut when he collected two sacks and an interception people were going crazy for him. But that pace was always unsustainable. Even before his injury he was going to lose playing time with the return of Bud Dupree. The Steelers like to rotate their OLBs and although Watt may be very good he’s currently overvalued. I’d be very tempted to sell at peak hype.

Marquel Lee (LB – OAK)
Lee was another summer darling as the IDP world slotted him into a starting role in Oakland. Unfortunately, Jack Del Rio seems to not share the love, and Lee has only managed 31 defensive snaps in two games which have translated to three solo tackles and an assist. That’s not dreadful, but LBs are always plentiful and Lee is not going to be a top option anytime soon given his limited game.

Duke Riley (LB – ATL)
Riley was slated early in camp as a starter, and he certainly has seen good volume in two games with 81 snaps. Unfortunately, that’s clearly behind De’Vondre Campbell’s 101 in the fight for No. 2 duties behind Deion Jones. No. 3 LBs are just not that valuable, so Riley is probably bench-worthy in most IDP leagues for the foreseeable future.

Korey Toomer (LB – SD)
A hot pick to play next to Jatavis Brown, Toomer has been a huge disappointment playing just 39 snaps in two games so far. That’s translated to just four solo tackles, and he appears to be behind the likes of Hayes Pullard and Kyle Emmanuel on the depth chart.

Frank Clark (DE – SEA)
Clark is talented. We can all see that. But he was extremely efficient in 2016 as he benefitted from Michel Bennett’s absence. This season Bennett is dominating snaps with Cliff Avril and Clark roughly equal so far. Given the number of mouths to feed I just can’t see Clark getting to double-digit sacks again.

Dante Fowler (DE – JAC)
After he managed two sacks in Week 1 (among the general destruction the Jaguars caused in pass rush against Houston), Fowler was a popular pick as a breakout. Unfortunately, it’s likely to not be true. Yannick Ngakoue has received 24 and 21 more snaps than Ngakoue in each week respectively so far, and this trend will likely continue. Fowler is a distant third in snap volume and is thus extremely unlikely to produce a relevant IDP season in 2017, injury notwithstanding.

Jonathan Allen (DE – WAS)
Allen is clearly a very good NFL talent. But as an IDP he’s going to find it very tough going in Washington. The scheme there is just not conducive to individual production meaning anything better than 30 solo tackles and four or five sacks is likely a pipe dream. In his two games so far he’s played 71 defensive snaps but produced just three solo tackles. This is likely to be the normal sort of level for the rest of 2017 and indeed his time in Washington.

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Hopefully, that’s a useful dip into the world of IDP.  There are vastly more relevant players in IDP than offensive ones so as always it’s a game of data and information. Knowing more than your opponents before they do can be the difference between a breakout player each and every week.

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