Most Accurate Experts vs. Consensus Rankings: Week 3

Sep 22, 2017
Frank Gore

Frank Gore could turn back the clock this week in a matchup against the Browns

The first thing I want to say is, sorry former Todd Gurley owners. Thursday night must have been painful for you to watch and as a 49ers fan, I can tell you it was painful for me as well. In case you need it, we started a support group just for you.

But back to the game. If this was a Sunday game, there’s no doubt in my mind you would be reading below why you should have liked Sammy Watkins more this week. Sure it’s easy to say this after the fact, but again, I’m a 49ers fan and I know there are question marks in the secondary.

The point is, with every passing week, we can start forming better ideas at predicting the outcome of fantasy performances. While there’s no way we’ll know the exact outcome, it helps to get advice from the most accurate experts this season. After looking through our rankings, we identified some of the tougher decisions that may be facing you and asked the experts below why they hold differing opinions on the players listed compared to the consensus.

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Frank Gore (RB – IND): vs. CLE
Pat’s Rank: RB20 | Consensus: RB26
“Grandpa Frank is usually a fade for me, but the Colts’ game script should be reasonably favorable for Gore in a home game against the similarly talent-deprived Browns. Offensive coordinator Rob Chudzinski probably won’t ask too much of young QB Jacoby Brissett, and with Marlon Mack out with a shoulder injury, that should mean ample touch volume for Gore. Yes, the matchup against the Saints looks appealing.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (The Football Girl)

Christian McCaffrey (RB – CAR): vs. NO
Derek’s Rank: RB12  | Consensus: RB17
“Carolina Panthers head coach Ron Rivera did not make fantasy owners very happy when he announced that Carolina planned on riding the hot hand at running back. News likes that makes the Carolina backfield unpredictable and frustrating for fantasy owners. The reason I like McCaffery a lot this week is that they play the New Orleans Saints, who are horrible on defense and give up a lot of points to running backs on receivng plays. Just last week, against the New England Patriots, they surrendered 12 receptions for 137 yards and one receiving touchdown. McCaffery is the receiving back in this offense and I think he will receive a lot of targets against the Saints; giving him the chance to have a very strong fantasy showing.”
– Derek Lofland (Fantasy Football Maniax)

Joe Mixon (RB – CIN): at GB
Joe’s Rank: RB28 | Consensus: RB34
“The Bengals offense needs to get fixed and quickly. We have to hope that new OC Bill Lazor realizes that in order to do this he has to give his best players the ball more, which in includes Mixon. I believe this happens, starting this week despite a fairly tough matchup against the Packers run defense.”
– Joe Bond (Fantasy Six Pack)

Rashard Higgins (WR – CLE): at IND
Jon’s Rank: WR29 | Consensus: WR41
“Generally I’m more of a ‘prove it’ guy, careful not to overreact to a week’s worth of output, but I’m happy to go all in on Higgins this week. The Indianapolis secondary is suspect, and the volume should be there for Higgins. With Corey Coleman out, and Kenny Britt out of favor with the coaching staff, I can see him repeating last week’s 11 targets and that’s volume I’m willing to chase.”
– Jon Collins (Fantasy Sports LR)

Trevor Siemian (QB – DEN): at BUF
Pyromaniac’s Rank: QB12 | Consensus: QB19
“Siemian has gotten off to a torrid start to the season, throwing a touchdown pass on 10% of his passing attempts through two weeks. Trevor’s main improvement has been in red-zone playcalling as he already has nine completions on 11 attempts inside the twenty with six touchdowns. In his 14 games last season, he completed just 28 of 55 pass attempts with 10 touchdowns and 1 interception. The Broncos have attempted 18 rushes inside the 20 giving the offense a balance and allowing play action opportunities. Siemian’s red zone ability should show up big against a Bills defense that has yet to allow a passing or rushing touchdown this season.”
– Staff Rankings (Pyromaniac)

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Jonathan Stewart (RB – CAR): vs. NO
Pat’s Rank: RB27 | Consensus: RB20
“Yes, Stewart’s had a healthy diet of touches so far. But J-Stew has played only 40 percent of the Panthers’ offensive plays while Christian McCaffrey has played 67 percent. Carolina’s defense has yielded only six points so far, so the Panthers have had the luxury of being run-heavy. The Saints have their problems, but they should be able to score enough points this week to force the Panthers away from a run-centric attack.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (The Football Girl)

Ameer Abdullah (RB – DET): vs. ATL
Pyromaniac’s Rank: RB40 | Consensus: RB22
“Abdullah is coming off his largest workload and highest rushing total as an NFL player, so he is an ascending back, but this matchup just doesn’t sit right with me. In Week 1, the Falcons allowed Jordan Howard just 52 yards on 13 carries and in Week 2, held Ty Montgomery to just 35 rushing yards on 10 carries. While each did end up with a red zone touchdown, that just doesn’t seem to be Abdullah’s role. On the season, he has four red-zone rushes for ZERO yards while Dwayne Washington has an identical 4 carries for 13 yards. In fact, the Lions have just one rush inside the 10 so far this season and Abdullah lost two yards. This is a pass-first team, but Ameer is not a big part of it with just 4 targets on the season and none coming in Week 2. Where the Falcons can be exploited is through the air by backs, already allowing 19 catches on 23 targets for 143 yards and two scores. This is an area the Lions will use Theo Riddick to thrive, limiting the upside of Abdullah this week.”
– Staff Rankings (Pyromaniac)

DeSean Jackson (WR – TB): at MIN
Donald’s Rank: WR46 | Consensus: WR35
“Jackson caught only three of his seven targets in his 2017 debut and while it’s a very small sample size, poor catch rate was the one drawback to Mike Evans in 2016 and may be for DJax as well. Jackson is going to have to get loose to contribute, and the Vikings have only allowed two receptions of 30+ yards thus far in 2017. I’m going to need to see Jackson produce in a new setting before truly endorsing him as the boom-bust candidate that he’s always been.”
– Donald Gibson (Fantasy Fusion)

Allen Hurns (WR – JAC): vs. BAL
KJ’s Rank: WR53 | Consensus: WR45
“The Jaguars feature more of a run-first mentality this season as they have realized the limitations of Blake Bortles‘ talent. This was especially evident last week as Hurns didn’t catch a pass until the end of the 3rd quarter with the Jaguars trailing heavily to Tennessee. This week’s matchup with the Ravens features the lowest total at just 39 points. This should be a low-scoring defensive effort without as much garbage time scoring available for Hurns.”
– KJ (Fantasy Team Advice)

Thank you to the experts for explaining their dissenting opinions. Be sure to give them a follow on Twitter if you’re not already doing so and check out our latest podcast below for more great advice.

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