Rejoice! It seems like it took forever to get here this year, but the regular season is finally upon us. Now that we have NFL football, let’s get you prepared for your 10-man and 12-man DRAFT leagues and kick off the season by identifying some fades in their snake draft format. These are players that are going too early in snake drafts based on their potential to be a lineup landmine this week. The ADP data referenced in this article is combined between both 10-man and 12-man DRAFT snake drafts compiled through September 6th.
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Quarterback
Phillip Rivers (LAC) @ DEN – ADP: 114.9
Very tempting this late in snake drafts, but still a hard NO for me, not against the Denver defense. They’re still a potent unit across all three levels, and Rivers will have his work cut out for him in Denver. Plus, the injury bug has already begun to bite the Chargers offense, an all too familiar scene.
Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) @ CLE – ADP: 99.3
Big Ben has displayed some of the starkest home/road splits of any QB in the NFL over his career. He does have a full arsenal of weapons unlike last year, but I still can’t trust him away from Heinz Field. The Browns are bad, no doubt, but I like Derek Carr or Marcus Mariota in pick 100 range.
Drew Brees (NO) @ MIN – ADP: 47.4
Brees is a first-ballot Hall of Famer, however, he gets a very tough matchup at Minnesota to open the season. The Vikings are a stingy unit, especially at home. While his home/road splits aren’t as pronounced as Big Ben, he still has a track record of less success on the road. Don’t take him early.
Running Back
Ezekiel Elliot (DAL) vs. NYG – ADP: 8.1
His suspension won’t being until Week 2 and although Zeke will be active, don’t fall into “buy now” pressure simply because you can’t use him for a while afterwards. The G-Men’s very stout run D led by Damon “Snacks” Harrison make this likely a low-scoring game and a spot to fade in the top 1o.
Ty Montgomery (GB) vs. SEA – ADP: 37.8
Similar to Ajayi, Montgomery had a pair of big games against the same opponent (Bears) last year…and not much else. The Seahawks are way better than the Bears, and their addition of Sheldon Richardson makes the front even more formidable. Rookie Jamaal Williams will likely get some run too.
Lamar Miller (HOU) vs. JAX – ADP: 25.2
Miller will get the majority of work at RB for Houston, but I don’t like how early he’s being drafted, especially considering the Jags have beefed up their defense once again. I have a sneaking suspicion that D’Onta Foreman will play a huge role as a goal-line vulture all season, beginning in Week 1.
Mike Gillislee (NE) vs. KC – ADP: 49.2
Speaking of goal-line vultures, the philosophy that Gillislee is filling the LeGarrette Blount role in New England this season is only an assumption. He was simply a market inefficiency they stole from Buffalo. He’s going in the top 50 with three other RBs in play on the same team. Hard pass for me.
Wide Receiver
T.Y. Hilton (IND) vs. LAR – ADP: 17.7
Hilton will be without Andrew Luck for at least this game and that doesn’t do him any favors. In his career, Hilton has been pedestrian at best without Luck and with a terrible QB at the helm this week, there’s no way T.Y. comes close to paying off his top 20 price tag. Stay away until Luck returns.
DeAndre Hopkins (HOU) vs. – ADP: JAX 26.6
Hopkins’ 2016 was forgettable. His QB situation continues to be mediocre as Tom Savage takes the helm in Houston. Last year looks more routine than an outlier season. The top 30 ADP is a real head-scratcher. That’s way too early for a guy going up against Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye at CB.
Demaryius Thomas (DEN) vs. LAC – ADP: 30.4
D.T. is money as a possession WR. But in both games against the Chargers last year, he hauled in just half his 10 targets. He failed to score and totaled just 114 yards on those combined 10 grabs. L.A. has one of the most underrated CB duos in the NFL, and they’ll make it tough for him.
Terrelle Pryor (WAS) vs. PHI – ADP: 33.9
Pryor has been drafted at his ceiling value all year in best ball, season-long, and even in snake drafts for Week 1. I just don’t get it. Kirk Cousins has essentially downgraded his weapons from a year ago and Pryor is not someone I’d be investing a third-round pick on. Maybe a 5th or 6th rounder?
Allen Robinson (JAX) @ HOU – ADP: 42.2
The Jags still have Blake Bortles starting at QB, at least for now. The Texans still have a solid Defense across all levels and should be able to pressure him regularly. Compound that with inconsistent play and horrible accuracy and I can’t draft A-Rob where he’s going, his bad QB cripples his value.
Tight End
Jordan Reed (WAS) vs. PHI – ADP: 42.6
I love the talent Reed possesses, but he’s so injury/concussion prone that the risk isn’t worth the top 50 pick you’ll have to use to get him. He could score multiple touchdowns, sure. He’s also had foot problems this preseason and Kirk Cousins hasn’t had much success against the Eagles in the past.
Hunter Henry (LAC) @ DEN – ADP: 102.6
Henry had an incredible season as a rookie, scoring on a ridiculous number of his catches. That TD:catch rate isn’t sustainable by any means, and the fact that Antonio Gates is still in the mix clouds his value and target market share. He also has a healthy Keenan Allen back this season…for now.
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Josh Dalley is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, follow him @JoshDalley72.
